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Vesey, Skjei, Hayes and Spooner - my contract predictions, what say you?

July 17, 2018, 12:19 AM ET [238 Comments]
Jan Levine
New York Rangers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
The Rangers took care of the last two of their restricted free agents who lacked arbitration rights by inking John Gilmour and Chris Bigras to one-year deals. Per Brett Cyrgalis, Gilmour's salary is $650,000 in NHL and $100,000 in AHL while Bigras, who accepted his qualifying offer, is a reported $832,500, though the figure for both has yet to be confirmed. Now, we turn our focus to the four remaining Rangers' free agents who could go to arbitration.

Last week, the NHLPA announced the Arbitration Dates for each of the players who filed:



For New York, the key dates are July 30 for Jimmy Vesey; July 31 for Brady Skjei; August 2 for Kevin Hayes and August 4 for Ryan Spooner. We have discussed these four fairly broadly, but with little going on, i will traverse similar ground again. Just remember even if a player is signed to a one-or-two-year deal in arbitration or a similar contract or longer one before the hearing takes place doesn't mean that individual is guaranteed to break camp with the team. In fact, if the deal is good enough so that the player may be more attractive to a contending squad whereby additional assets come back to New York, I wouldn't be shocked if any of the four go, but especially Hayes and/or Spooner.

Vesey, drafted by Nashville in the third round of 2012, signed as a free agent with New York in August 2016, Because Vesey did not meet the performance bonuses in his contract, was $925K against the salary cap. Matt Cane, who does a great job with his predictions, predicted that Vesey signs a two-year bridge deal with a $1,684,815 AAV. Vesey tallied 55 points in 159 games, but many of us believe he could and should produce more than that. My view is that he will be a solid third-line winger, who needs to play much more physical that he has to date and could notched 18-22 goals with a similar number of assists, finishing in the 40 point range. My prediction is that Vesey signs a two-year deal worth between $1.85-2.25 million per season.

Skjei is the tougher one. Is he the player we saw rise rapidly as a rookie or the one who struggled as a sophomore? Was he a victim of too much success too soon or fell back under the weight of too high expectations? In addition, I know some feel that the company he kept on the Rangers did him little favors and he would benefit from either living on his own or with different roommates.

Skjei is coming off his three-year, $2.775 million entry-level deal. As a rookie, the odds were very strong that New York would sign Skjei to a long-term deal. During his sophomore season, that view changed for many, believing that the risk was worth the possible reward if Skjei rebounds. The answer as to which direction to go depends on who you feel is the real Skjei and the reason for his decline. In addition, what is your risk/reward tolerance and quotient.

As Shayna Goldman pointed out, Flyers took that risk on Shayne Gostisbehere after a rough second season. Because they extended him long-term after his ELC, they now have a 25-year-old first pair defenseman under contract through 2023 for $4.5 million in cap space. However, the big difference there is that Ghost is much more of an offensive threat than Skjei, especially on the power play, which boosts his value.

Carolina went a similar route with both Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce. With Slavin, the Canes' signed him to a seven-year, $37.1 million contract extension with the Hurricanes in July of 2017 that takes effect this year, the 2018-19 season. Pesce inked a a six-year, $24.15 million contract extension with the Hurricanes in August of 2017 following his second season. New York loves to bridge deal their players, but they wisely didn't go that route with Ryan McDonagh, signing their future captain to a six-year deal worth $4.7 mil per, which proved to be a smart signing.

If New York truly believes that Skjei will be their future #1 blueliner, then he should be locked up long-term. Cane's model predicts a one-year deal for Skjei, but if New York did ink him for six years, the AAV would be $4,582,657. To me, a deal in that range for six years is the direction I would go rather than a one- or two-year bridge contract which could cost the Rangers more down the road. Six years at anywhere under $4.85 million and I think New York comes out ahead down the road.

Hayes seems to be a polarizing figure for New York fans. The seemingly hang-dog and unconcerned look on his face on the ice has rubbed many the wrong way. I have made my views on Hayes pretty clear, including two weeks ago in this blog (https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=93766), but here we go again.

At that time, San Jose's signing of Tomas Hertl for four years at $5.625 seemed to be a pretty good comp. If you believe Larry Brooks, Hayes started his ask at $5.5 mil a year for five seasons, though that number depends on whether you believe Brooks; but that figure looks to be in the reasonable range.

Today, Elias Lindholm re-signed for six years for $28.1 million ($4.683 mil AAV) with Calgary while Adam Henrique re-upped for five years with a $5.825 AAV with Anaheim. Hayes' production has been closer to Lindholm than Henrique, but as a center, he has more responsibilities than Lindholm's, whose deal has a few scratching their heads. Age-wise. Hayes almost slots in directly between both players.

Some advanced metrics for the three and read Corey's tweet on Hayes:






Cane's model predicts a four-year deal with a $4,829,992 AAV, which is close to what Lindholm received for six years. A six-year contract would run $5,378,546 per year per Cane, which is almost the midpoint between Lindholm's and Henrique's AAV and not that far from what Hertl received. Hayes earned $2.6 mil per year on a two-year deal signed in July 2016, which was his second deal. A short-term deal would allow him to be a UFA after the contract expired. If a long-term contract is signed, New York has to consider the current roster construction, especially down the middle, and if signing Hayes makes it easier and/or more likely he moves.

This is what I wrote two weeks ago, which remains true now:

Part of the argument given for dealing Hayes is the depth at center. So let me get this straight. Two years ago, depth was a good problem to have. Last year’s lack of depth was bemoaned broadly. Now, the team has depth again and it’s a bad thing? Got it. We have no idea if Filip Chytil and/or Lias Andersson will be ready to assume. Full time role. Same with Brett Howden or Boo Nieves. Vladislav Namestnikov, re-signed for two years at $4 mil per Sunday, has the majority of success at wing alongside Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. His flexibility enables New York to play Hayes at the pivot and Nam at wing, freeing up another slot for a center.

If Chytil or Andersson, my bet is on the former not the latter, is ready to earn a spot, then start him at the #3 slot and move him up as needed. But you have protection if one or both are not ready. In addition, with the expected rise in the cap and the need for centers, if Hayes is productive, do you not think you could move him? At worse, if need be, Mika Zibanejad could be moved, especially since many feel Chytil is similar to Zib and may be able to replace his production down the road, if a C is dealt for a W or RHD.


I would give Hayes the long-term deal, five years between $4.8-$5.25 million per season, the higher number matching what J.T, Miller received. But a 2-3 year deal would not shock me.

Spooner is the one I expect to be dealt. Acquired from Boston in the Rick Nash deal, Spooner notched four goals and 12 assists in 20 games, though most of that production came early in his Rangers' tenure. Spooner earned $2.825 million on a one-year deal, his third contract with Boston. Regardless of the length of deal he signs Spooner will become a UFA, so if If he inks another one-year deal, he earns UFA status after this season.

One knock on Spooner is that he isn't physical enough and won't go into the dirty areas. I didn't notice that in New York and felt that he, Miller and Hayes would have been a nice trio and we saw signs of that in the one game they played together against Detroit following his acquisition earlier that Sunday on Jean Ratelle night. Spooner can be center and wing, though he looks to be better suited to playing outside rather than the pivot.

With New York in rebuilding mode, Spooner probably will get dealt either before the season or during the year at the trade deadline for a future asset, especially if he is on a one-year deal. A player who can play C and W and can score 40-45 points has solid value in the league. Cane's model predicts a one-year deal at $2,605,014, in essence 200K less than before. My prediction is Spooner inks a one-year deal between $3.4 and $3.8 million.

My hope is that all these deals get done before arbitration and no one makes it to a hearing. Vesey will be first up, but not for two more weeks. If no action until then on any of the four, the slow crawl of an off-season will be even more snail-like.

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