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Echoes, Silence, Patience and Gardiner

July 15, 2018, 8:56 PM ET [332 Comments]
Mike Augello
Toronto Maple Leafs Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
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UPDATE - Leafs sign 2018 first rounder Rasmus Sandin to a three-year entry level contract as per Cap Friendly.

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Some random thoughts on a lazy summer evening…..

It has been two weeks since Toronto signed John Tavares and two months until the start of training camp, so Leafs fans are probably waiting for another move from Kyle Dubas.

After the signing, Dubas made the rounds on Toronto radio and expressed confidence that he will be able to get the young core group of William Nylander, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner signed, but that it will require some patience.

That could be interpreted a number of ways, but as I said earlier this week regarding Nylander, it may mean getting the 22-year-old to fall in line with other long-term deals of comparable players like Nikolaj Ehlers and David Pastrnak. A two-or-three year bridge deal may be of short term benefit, but could be cap crippling down the line if Nylander puts up big numbers.

Patience could mean that negotiating a new contract may last most of the summer and possibly into training camp if it means getting the right deal. It also goes for Matthews and Marner, who have another year on their entry-level deals.

The Leafs ideally would prefer to get Matthews and Marner signed before the season (because another great year would give both more leverage to get paid more next summer), but that is the reason that it likely won’t happen.

Taking Tavares $11 Million, projecting Matthews making at least $11 Million, Nylander in the $6 to $6.5 Million range and Marner at $8 to $8.5 Million, you are talking about $36 - 37 Million for just the “Big Four”.
What is helpful to Dubas is that most of the club’s other important pieces (Morgan Rielly - $5 Million, Nazem Kadri - $4.5 Million, Frederik Andersen - $5 Million, Nikita Zaitsev - $4.5 Million, Zach Hyman - $2.25 Million) are locked in for multiple years and Nathan Horton’s contract being placed on LTIR will alleviate some of Patrick Marleau’s $6.25 Million cap hit.

What will be a problem is Jake Gardiner becoming a free agent at the same time that Matthews and Marner are looking to get paid.

Gardiner has a year remaining at $4.025 Million before becoming unrestricted next July and based on the quickly evaporating 2019 free agent defensive class, it is likely that if the 28-year-old puts up another 50-point season, that teams looking for a puck rushing/power play defenseman will be willing to offer a similar deal to Kevin Shattenkirk’s four-year, $26.6 Million contract ($6.675 Million AAV) from New York last summer and perhaps something closer to John Carlson’s deal ($8 Million AAV) with Washington.

Either way, it is hard to imagine the Leafs to being able to pay the players that Dubas says he will and pay Gardiner anything close to what he could get on the open market (unless the Leafs move Zaitsev or another significant cap hit to free up space).

That leaves Toronto with three options;

1) Trade Gardiner before the season for another defenseman that has more term left on his contract or to free up space to acquire another blueliner in another deal.

2) Keep Gardiner as they did with James van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak through next season and let him go to free agency, knowing they cannot afford to bring him back and hoping that Timothy Liljegren will be ready for the NHL after another season in the AHL.

3) Keep Gardiner to start the season and see if Travis Dermott matures and improves enough to take over Gardiner’s role in the top four, thus allowing Toronto to deal him as rental at the trade deadline.

Only time will tell which direction the Leafs will go…..


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