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G71: Oilers vs Sharks - Quick Look at 23/24

March 20, 2023, 4:23 PM ET [16 Comments]
Sean Maloughney
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
The victory over the Seattle Kraken on Saturday afternoon wasn't pretty but the team got things done and managed to secure the win. At this point in the season it doesn't matter how, only that you get wins; providing the team learns from their mistakes along the way. The 2 points against Seattle was huge for this team, giving them an extra little cushion between them and the now Wild Card positioned rival.

As of right now it appears that the Oilers will play either Vegas or LA in the first round. Either matchup would be a good challenge for Edmonton. There doesn't appear to be any easy matchups in the playoffs in the West this season.

This Oilers team doesn't have many weaknesses anymore. They are a deeper team than the one that went to the Western Conference Final. Two big questions face this team in my mind; can Cody Ceci improve and not be as much of a liability to the Nurse pairing and can Stuart Skinner continue his strong play? If either of these answers be "no," the Oilers will have an uphill battle ahead of them.

There is plenty of time in the coming weeks to talk about potential playoff matchups or lines or any of that. Today I wanted to take a brief look ahead to the 23/24 season, who is under contract and who should and should not be signed. The reason I want to do this now is because over the next few weeks and into the playoffs we will be watching players who are fighting for new contracts or a better spot in the lineup for next year.

Here is what we know:

Right now the cap is assumed to increase 1 million to a max cap of 83.5 million, though there is a chance that the NHLPA (Players Association) could pay off their remaining debt which would also trigger a larger increase. For now we are going to go off of the 83.5 number. The Oilers right now have roughly 8.5 million in cap space next season but have some key RFA's to sign as well.

Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, and Klim Kostin all need new contracts heading into next season. Bouchard struggled at the start of this season and ended up being more of a third pairing player but now is firmly entrenched with Ekholm on a duo that could arguably be called the top pairing. He is also now getting top PP time. He has 8 points in his last 7 games. Edmonton should not be trying to bridge this player as they mistakenly did with Nurse. They need to do an 8 year deal and hope they can get him between 4-5 million.

Ryan McLeod is another player that should have been signed last summer to a longer term deal but cap issues prevented that from occurring. Instead McLeod took a discount on a 1 year deal and is now in an even better negotiating standpoint. The 23 year old has surpassed both his previous goal and point career high in 16 fewer games this season. McLeod is proving to be an excellent top nine forward who can play on the wing, at centre, on the PK or second unit PP and be a reliable player. Again, I would try locking him up long term before he gets any pricier.

Lastly there is Klim Kostin. How the Oilers deal with Kostin might be the most important move they make this summer and I say that with zero sarcasm. Kostin started the year strong for the Oilers, scoring goals at an unsustainable pace while also providing a physical presence in the bottom six. After that burst of scoring he faltered for quite some time and picked up again with 6 points in his last 8 games. Kostin could be a useful bottom six option but Holland cannot make the same mistake with him as he did with Kassian. Kostin is a useful bottom six forward who should make less than 1.4 million a season. Overvaluing what he brings will directly impact how the team can sign other players.

For argument sake right now, let's say Bouchard gets 4.8 million a year, McLeod gets 2.2 million, and Kostin gets 1.3 million (the length of contract here varies). That puts the Oilers $700,000 over the cap. That is with Holloway on the roster and the team having 10 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goalies under contract.

That isn't gonna work. Edmonton is going to need to get rid of some contracts. Here are the likely suspects to watch going forward.

Brett Kulak: I like Kulak's game as a third pairing steady defender but at 2.75 million he is on the more expensive side and is blocked by Nurse and now Ekholm ahead of him. The team is going to want to have Broberg getting more regular reps as well.

Cody Ceci: Similar to Kulak, Ceci is probably best suited as a shutdown option on a third pair but at 3.25 million that is an expensive option. Edmonton needs to upgrade their right side as Bouchard is their only legitimate option aside from Ceci and Desharnais is still young and raw.

Kailer Yamamoto: Yamamoto has one more year on his contract at 3.1 million. When he is on, Yamo is a tenacious forward who is aggressive on the forecheck and can chip in offensively. We have also seen him struggle to produce and his injury list is starting to get dangerously long. If the smaller forward cannot make an impact in a noticeable way in the playoffs the team will likely be looking for an upgrade.

Warren Foegele: Foegele has been playing his best hockey of his career with the Oilers in the past few months and is starting to look worthy of his 2.75 million dollar contract as a top nine forward. There are players that are competing for that same spot in the likes of Holloway and maybe McLeod as well depending on his usage. Another contract to keep an eye on.

Jack Campbell: The Campbell era in Edmonton has not gone according to plan at all. The netminder has been nearly unplayable this month after being expected to be the starting netminder for this team. I don't see this contract being tradeable with his play but a buyout is looking more and more like a plausible solution.

Enjoy the game tonight and keep an eye on these players to see if their stock is rising or falling.
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