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Thoughts On Another Comeback Win

November 29, 2022, 9:31 PM ET [4 Comments]
Sean Maloughney
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
A quick explanation of PDO before we break down another exciting comeback win by the Edmonton Oilers. PDO is a stat that in it's simplest explanation highlights "puck luck." It might sound crazy that there is a stat that predicts luck but that is in it's essence what PDO is.

PDO takes a team's even strength shooting percentage and adds it to the team even strength save percentage. That is it. The average number here that most teams fall into is around 1, or 100% So if a team was shooting 9% and had a SV% of 92% (0.920SV%), their PDO would be 1.1 or 101%. PDO over time always regresses back towards 100 meaning teams that are shooting well above 100 will eventually start to see fewer shots going in (less puck luck) and teams that are well below 100 will eventually start to see more pucks going in (more puck luck).

I bring this up because over the past couple of weeks the Oilers have had a number of issues and problems with the lineup, but on top of that the team has also had simply had some brutal puck luck. Edmonton had a 0.962 PDO in the game against the Rangers. Scoring chances at 5 on 5 were 26-11 for the Oilers. Edmonton had a 0.948PDO against the Panthers and outchanced them 26-21 at 5 on 5. Both of these games ended in dramatic fashion with Oilers wins but I wanted to stress that Edmonton deserved to win both of these games.

Even looking at the game against the Islanders. Edmonton outchanced the Isles 23-15 with a PDO of 0.958. There were other issues involved in that game; poor decision making and costly mistakes but the team also had the misfortune of running into a hot goalie.

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Moving past the math that I know is riveting for many of you, my point is that the Oilers are doing a number of things that will regularly win them games... they are also doing a number of things that will cause them massive issues moving forward. Thus the conversation slickly transitions to Darnell Nurse.

The first goal against for Edmonton was a fluky goal but one that could have been completely avoided as well. Cousins throws a weak shot towards the net from the blueline that Nurse blocks inexplicably by dropping to one knee.. I don't believe this is on the coaching staff as he is the only player on the ice I ever see try to block a shot in this way. It was a fluke that the puck went directly to Tkachuk but Darnell effectively took himself out of the play with this movement.

Nurse made a number of other unforced errors, giving up possession in the offensive end, failing to clear the puck from his own end and taking a needless penalty. This year again and again we are seeing the player that should be the Oilers #1 defenseman play like a rookie. I do not fault Nurse for his contract; that is on Ken Holland. What is on Nurse is playing responsible hockey and not making careless decisions.

On a positive note, while they did not score, the new bodies injected into the lineup performed quite admirably. Hamblin in particular impressed me with his tenacious play. While he was not credited with any hits he was active in the play, aggressive on the puck and helped his line create chances. He, Malone, and Holloway went 3-1 in shots at 5 on 5. At the same time the Kostin, Ryan, Shore line went 7-1 in shots. While they did not produce any goals, the bottom six did an excellent job at controlling play.

I said I was done talking about math but I lied. Evan Bouchard has also been a victim of bad puck luck. While some of this has been of his own design, failing to get shots through, he should have had more to show for his work up until the last couple of games. Bouchard leads the Oilers defenders in total shots (47), takeaways (13), and with Niemelainen sent down Bouchard leads the Oilers blueline in Hits/60 (5.46). We are finally seeing his numbers trending in the right direction as he added another goal to his season in the final 4 seconds of the game last night with an absolute bomb. While it's unreasonable to expect Bouchard to be scoring a goal every game or even every second game, the blueliner does have far more to give than the first two months of the season showed. It's great seeing him back on track.

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Over the next 10 games, Edmonton does not face off against any teams that are currently in a playoff position or a team that has more points than they currently do (24). Here are their next 10 opponents:

Chicago Blackhawks - 16 points
Minnesota Wild x3 - 22 points
Montreal Canadiens - 23 points
Washington Capitals - 21 points
Nashville Predators x2 - 20 points
St Louis Blues - 22 points
Anaheim Ducks - 13 points

This is a crucial next 10 for Edmonton. This is a stretch where this team should be able to go 7-3-0. They need to build off of this play, hope that their puck luck returns and most importantly, play well enough to create their own luck.

Thanks for reading.
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