The Rangers kick off their Eastern Conference Finals series against the Lightning tonight at MSG. New York advanced to this round rallying from a 3-1 deficit to defeat Pittsburgh and from 3-2 down to get past Carolina, each series taking seven games. Tampa Bay, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion, rallied to get past Toronto in seven games before sweeping Florida, who won the Presidents Cup. These two teams last met in the playoffs in the 2015 ECF with the Lightning winning 2-0 in Game 7 at MSG.
Similarities exist between the two squads. Both teams have elite goalies. Each have a brilliant two-way center and top-flight winger with solid support casts. A minute-munching d-man who can score at will is also present. Add in special teams that can tilt the scoreboard and shut down opponents and you have somewhat mirror images, though differences are present as well..
Overall playoff schedule:
Rangers videos:
Rangers:
Lines:
Kreider-Zibanejad-Vatrano
Panarin-Strome-Copp
Lafrenière-Chytil-Kakko
Motte-Goodrow-Reaves
Extras:
Healthy scratches: Hunt-Rooney-Brodzinski-McKegg-Gauthier
Injured - Sammy Blais
The big boys - for the most part - produced when they needed to so far this postseason. Mika Zibanejad is third in the playoffs and leads New York with 19 points (seven goals, 12 assists) in 14 games. New York's top-line center has points in five straight games (four goals, four assists), including three assists in Game 7 against Carolina. In addition, his four power-play goals are tied for most in the playoffs. Kreider has eight goals and three helpers this postseason, including a pair of tallies in Game 7 against the Canes. Vatrano has had moments the first two rounds, but also was moved down during the last series
Panarin is the game-breaker, but that has not been the case for most of the second season, save for his OT goal in Game 7 against Pittsburgh. Despite his struggles, the high-scoring winger still has 11 points in 14 games. Strome had a huge goal in Game 7 versus Carolina but only had three points last round. Copp, whose acquisition now will cost the Rangers a first-round next season for which he apologized to GM Chris Drury, can move up and down the lineup and play in all situations. He has 12 points these playoffs - five of which came in Games 4 and 7 last round.
The Kid Line has taken a major step forward this postseason. Chytil had three goals the last two games in the past round; a huge component in the New York win. He has shown poise, physical play and willingness/ability to take his game to the next level. The same for Lafreniere, whose lunch pail game has been on display in both rounds. Of the three, Kaapo Kakko has been the least impressive. I have a hunch he has a few big moments in this series.
The return of Motte in Game 6 of round 1 and Goodrow in Game 6 of Round 2 were two major reasons why the Blueshirts were able to advance. Both provide physical play and a strong forecheck while also playing a key role on the penalty kill. Reaves' presence was to be a deterrent for extracurricular activities on the ice, which was the case at times in the first round. If Sammy Blais is able to come back from his torn ACL in this round, look for him to replace Reaves.
Defense:
Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Trouba
Braun-Schneider
Extras:
Nemeth
The big-four will see most of the ice time for New York. Adam Fox logs heavy minutes, leading the attack from the back end. Teams have tried to be physical with him, though that has not been a deterrent. Fox raises his game when needed, tallying 10 points in the five elimination games and 18 overall. The Robin to his Batman, Lindgren, is a robo player. He is like Timex, takes a licking and keeps on ticking. Playing with a high-ankle sprain, Lindgren keeps returning to action and his pairing with Fox aids the Norris Trophy winner.
Miller is the one blueliner that has taken a major step forward. He is just scratching the surface of how good he can be. His length and reach coupled with his elite skating enables him to break up plays and trigger the attack. Trouba is most known for his checks, and while he can be solid defensively, he can be risky in his own end.
Braun and Schneider see about 10 minutes of ice time a game. Coach Gerard Gallant has spotted that duo to avoid certain match ups. Look for that to continue this round, but eventually, he will need to use this pair a bit more to give the top-four some rest.
Goalies:
Shesterkin
Georgiev
As Igor goes, so go the Rangers. Shesterkin pulled in Games 3 and 4 against Pittsburgh, has more than righted the ship, going 7-3 with a 2.09 goals-against average and .939 save percentage in his past 10 playoff starts. The numbers were even more impressive in the past round, as Shesterkin posted a 1.86 GAA and .953 save percentage. Compare that to the 4.26 GAA and .905 save percentage after the first four contests against Pittsburgh. Shesterkin will need to play like the finalist he is for the Hart Trophy as the most valuable player and the Vezina Trophy as the top goalie in the NHL.
Tampa Bay:
Lines:
Stamkos-Cirelli-Kucherov
Palat-Paul-Killorn
Hagel-Colton-Perry
Maroon-Bellemare-Nash
Extras - Cole Koepke
Injured - Brayden Point
Despite missing Point since Game 7 of round 1, Tampa Bay still has averaged 3.27 goals per game this postseason. The Lightning have elite skill up front, as they have several forwards who can beat you, led by Stamkos and Kucherov. Stamkos, as seen last round, has been willing to sacrifice his body to block shots. He set career-highs in assists (64) and points (106) while also notching 42 goals. Point will center the top lione when healthy. In his place is Cirelli, who is a solid two-way center, though he only had two points the first two rounds. Not much has to be said about Kucherov, who has 15 points in 11 games and tallied 25 goals and 44 helpers in 47 games during the season.
Tampa added another player who can move up and down the lineup in Paul. He averages 3:33 on the penalty kill while winning 55.9% of his draws. Paul likely will center the third line if Point is back. Palat and Killorn are a pair of playoff tested wings. Killorn had a bigger regular season, 59 to 49 points, while Palat has eight points to Killorn's four in the first rounds.
Perry does much of his damage on the power play but can also deliver a sneaky blow physically to his opponents. Colton just seems to always step up in big moments, as he did in last season's playoff run. Koepke is in solely due to the injuries to Point and Hagel. If one or both are back, he likely is the odd man out with Hagel, acquired from Chicago before the trade deadline, manning the third line left wing.
Tampa's fourth line is a far cry from what they had during the two Cup runs. That's a consequence of the cap though Maroon, who also appears to make a big play when needed, is still there. But this trio can grind down opponents and be a physical, annoying presence.
Defense:
Hedman-Cernak
McDonagh-Bogosian
Sergachev-Foote
Extras: Claesson-Rutta
Hedman just looks like he plays all game and covers every inch of the ice. He is just close to that. Hedman is as elite as they come and a major force on all three zones. Cernak has been the perfect pair mate to Hedman, blocking shots while freeing up Hedman to roam if needed or desired. Tampa blocked 77 shots last round and have allowed just 2.45 goals per game this postseason.
We all know Mack Truck. He may have slowed slightly, but he still is more than solid tw-way d-man, about to step up offensively while also shutting down opponents. Bogosian is similar to Cernak, as he is a defensive d-man allowing McD to break up plays.
Sergachev will take time away from McD down the road. He is next in line to Hedman and close to taking a major step forward. Sergachev can score and be physical but also can end up out of position at times on the ice. Ruuta or Foote will be the sixth d-man, though both might play if TB goes 11/7 again.
Goalies:
Vasilevskiy
Elliott
The fun match up. Igor vs. Vasilevskiy. Russian goalie against Russian goalie. Vasilevskiy won the Conn Smythe Trophy voted as the most valuable player in the playoffs last season, when he was 16-7 with a 1.90 GAA, .937 save percentage and five shutouts. This postseason, he started 3-3 with a 3.37 GAA and .885 save percentage in his first six contests. Since then, Vasilevskiy went 5-0 with an 0.80 GAA, .978 save percentage and one shutout to lead Tampa past Toronto and to a sweep over Florida.
Special teams:
This is where the series may be won. Two elite offensives with solid penalty kills as well. The immovable object versus the irresistible force.
New York's power play is 13-for-40 (32.5 percent) in the playoffs, second in the league, including 7-for-21 (33.3 percent) in the second round. The Rangers penalty kill held Carolina to two power-play goals on 18 opportunities (88.9 percent) and is 33-for-41 (80.5 percent), eighth overall, in the playoffs after a slow start.
The Lightning is 11-for-48 (22.9 percent) on the power play, eighth in the playoffs. The penalty kill held the Panthers to one power-play goal on 13 opportunities (92.3 percent) and is 36-for-41 (87.8 percent) for the playoffs, third overall. One key to look at is Tampa was one of the most penalized teams in the regular season. If that repeats here, this could be a huge advantage for the Blueshirts.
Prediction:
New York takes a step up in class against the Lightning. Tampa Bay has been off since May 23, so they will be well rested, leading to the argument of rest vs. rust. To me, one key to New York taking the series will be winning Game 1. I think the adrenaline of being at home will help carry the Rangers in the first game with a possible lag as the contests catch up to them in game 2.
This will not be an easy series. In fact, on paper and probably in reality, it should be the hardest of the three to date. Tampa is an elite squad. They have everything, especially if Point and Hagel are in the lineup. New York has shown they can come from behind in a series, what we don't know if they can play from in front. Both teams have been poor between the dots, so that may not be a factor this round.
Tampa should be and are the favorite. I think the Rangers relish being the underdog. My head says Lightning in six, my heart says Rangers in seven. This time, following my heart as New York gets revenge for 2015.
Mike Vaccaro has a few great lines in the NY Post summarizing how we should all feel and view this post-season run.
You are grateful for the run, gleeful for the ride.
The job isn’t close to being done.
The job, in fact, is only half done.
Because you never know when you’ll be back here again.
Greed is better. Seize the moment. Seize the day.
Seize the damned Cup.
#NoQuitinNY
(As a reminder, I am out of pocket from Friday to Monday night. Game 1 recap blog will be up Thursday and Game 2 preview blog up Friday before the Sabbath begins. I will be back again Monday night or Tuesday am after Game 3 and prior to Game 4)
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