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The Toronto Maple Leafs begin their quest to slay the Stanley Cup Playoff dragon, as they start their best-of-seven first-round series against the reigning Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning at Scotiabank Arena on Monday.
Toronto went through a vigorous practice at the Ford Performance Centre on Sunday that signaled some roster tweaks for Game 1. Ondrej Kase participated in the hour-long workout alongside John Tavares and Ilya Mikheyev, and Keefe confirmed on Monday that the winger will see his first action since March 19.
Michael Bunting worked out prior to the main group taking the ice and participated in a limited role, but is not ready to return. Alex Kerfoot will take Bunting’s place with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner and Timothy Liljegren will start the series on the bottom pairing with Mark Giordano.
In spite of possessing home-ice advantage, and splitting four regular-season matchups, the Leafs go into the series as underdogs and are harboring no illusions that it will take a significant effort to beat Tampa, with their firepower, talent, and playoff experience.
"I think the biggest thing about playoffs is that everything equalizes. In the regular season, when you're going through 82 games, sometimes you get a team when they're tired. They might have this guy hurt or that guy hurt." Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe said. "When the playoffs start, you're on the same schedule and for the most part, the teams are equal in terms of what they're going through and then the puck drops and you play."
Toronto is capable of winning their first playoff match in 18 years if certain things fall into place, but if one or more of those factors do not occur, they will be difficult for them to overcome. Here are five keys to the series:
1. Not losing the goaltending battle
Tampa has a decided advantage between the pipes with Andrei Vasilevskiy being widely regarded as one of the best goalies in the NHL and leading them to two championships. Jack Campbell’s first two months earned him his first All-Star appearance, but his heavy early workload may have caused his numbers to drop in the middle of the season.
Campbell returned from injury in April and played more like he did early in the season. It is unreasonable to expect the Leafs goaltender to match Vasilevskiy’s performance, but if he can come close, as he did against Montreal and Carey Price 12 months ago, then that gives Toronto a fighting chance.
2. Leafs can’t be pushed around
Keefe laid down the gauntlet on Sunday regarding his expectations for the series, saying that he expects the Lightning to be extremely physical, as they were in their opening-round series against Florida last year.
"They are going to be very physical. They are going to be very competitive, When I look at their playoffs — especially in the first round last year, they definitely led the league in skirmishes after the whistle.” Keefe said. “I expect it to be a very physical, borderline violent series in a lot of ways (and) our guys will be ready."
While this could be a ploy to get the league’s attention and have the officials cognizant of Tampa’s tactics to get power plays, the Leafs star players must not get pushed around and not rely solely on fourth-liners Wayne Simmonds and Kyle Clifford to be deterrents.
3. No “Power” Outage
One of the key reasons for the Leafs loss to Montreal was their inability to score on the man advantage. Toronto struggled in the second half on the power play and the loss of John Tavares hit them hard, as they went 3-for-23 vs. the Habs.
The Leafs did not swoon in the second half this year and finished the campaign with the top-ranked power play at 27.3%. Traditionally, penalties are harder to come by in the post-season, which means that Toronto must seize on the few opportunities they get.
4. The M and M boys
Not to be oversimplistic when it comes to winning and losing a series, but the Leafs have little or no chance of winning over Tampa if Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner do not produce as they did against Montreal.
The Habs used checking center Phillip Danault and their big blueline to wear down and simply suffocate the dynamic duo, made possible in part to Tavares not being available as a second-line threat. Tampa's high-paced style should be conducive to Matthews and Marner being able to get more offensive chances and they must convert.
5. Ignore the past
Toronto simply cannot be concerned about what has happened before. The fact that today is the 55th anniversary of the club’s last Cup victory is a date in the history books. Tampa will likely try to jump on the Leafs early and make them and the Scotiabank Arena crowd feel the pressure. In spite of the fact that Tampa is looking to make a run for their third straight Cup, the hockey world’s eyes are all focused on how the other team in Blue and White plays.
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