Pardon the late take on last night’s game which is now very old news with tonight’s game a scant couple of hours away, but there is one thing from last night that needs to be discussed before it gets too far in the rear view mirror.
Of most recent interest to fans is probably the revival of Jeff Skinner’s career as evidenced by his 14th goal of the season last night. There was a narrative during the first year of Ralph Krueger’s tenure that Jeff Skinner needed to be played with a better center than Patrik Berglund or Marcus Johansson in order to get the best out of the goalscorer. In the second year of Krueger’s tenure, the narrative switched to Jeff Skinner being totally washed up and beyond reclamation, or at least that Ralph Krueger totally destroyed the confidence of the $9m man. Now, with Skinner on a 32-goal pace, credit is being given to coach Don Granato for reviving his career.
The question has to be asked, though: Is this the doing of Don Granato? Skinner is in the midst of a shooting binge while shooting 12.7% against a 10.8% career average over his 12 seasons in the NHL. The last two years, he shot 6.3% and 7.7% which are far below his career average. There’s no doubt that shooting percentage plays a big factor in the perception of a player, and to be fair, that’s all that really counts when you’re talking about a pure goalscorer.
If we look at the average time on ice, though, his useage under Don Granato is very similar to the way Ralph Krueger used him in 2019-2020. That year, Skinner averaged 16:29 in playing time with 60% deployment in the offensive zone, meaning that he was started in the opposition’s end 60% of the time. This year, under Granato, Skinner is playing 16:51 with an offensive deployment number of 68% through his 36 games. Those utilization numbers are fairly similar.
Now, the second year of Krueger is totally different as Skinner was given less than 15 minutes a night, he was scratched, and basically left for dead on the proverbial side of the road.
The difference – to some extent – does lie in the style of play between Krueger and Granato; one locked it down, and one opens it up. And if you’re a believer in Tage Thompson, as I am to at least some extent, then there is a bump in talent from Marcus Johansson who was decidedly not a center. Now here’s the really interesting data point: the evolving-hockey player cards from 2020-2021 and 2021-22:
This is fascinating for a number of reasons, but primarily because it suggests that not only did Ralph Krueger turn him into a boring, offensively useless drone, he actually succeeded in making him a decent checking line forward. Conversely, Granato has decided to use him as an offensive weapon and he’s succeeded in doing that as well. It’s interesting that Skinner has been molded into whatever the coaching staff wants him to be.
So what does this mean for Skinner going forward? Well, the shooting percentage suggests that he won’t score the 32 goals he’s on pace to score. He’ll probably trend down a couple percentage points and finish around 25 goals if he stays healthy. Still, that’s not bad for a guy who was considered by some to be totally washed up and checked out. Secondly, this suggests that perhaps Skinner will be able to age gracefully into a depth role where he won’t kill you if asked to occupy that position on the team, similar to Okposo. When utilized in the role he’s currently occupying, Skinner has at least a couple more 20-goal seasons in him before age-related regression, I believe (and your mileage may vary, of course), and after that, it’s possible that he can transition into a bottom-six player.
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Now for tonight’s game. The Buffalo Sabres are traveling up to Ottawa to play in front of no fans due to Covid restrictions. I am contractually obligated to make the following joke: The Sabres are used to playing in front of no fans, amirite?
One player the Sabres did not bring along is Tage Thompson who had to be left at home due to Canada’s entry policy which states that a person entering the country must be Covid-negative for 10 days. I don’t want to get too far into the weeds on this, as it’s obviously a controversial topic, buuuuut, this doesn’t strike me as a particularly useful guideline. If he’s good to play in the NHL, shouldn’t he be allowed to travel to play in the NHL?
The Sabres will also go to battle with their 6th string goaltender, Michael Houser, between the pipes tonight. While it’s almost unbelievable to see a team get down to their second string goaltender, it’s even more unbelievable to think that this is the second year in a row the Sabres have used six goaltenders. That’s incredible. Now for a bit of trivia: can you name the six goalies the Sabres use last year? Here’s a hint, three of them are the same this year as they were last year.
Truth be told, it’s hard to expect much from Granato’s bunch tonight considering the spot they’re in with unavailable players. The good news for fans is that Brett Murray will pop back into the lineup, so at least there are some young players to watch. Don’t read too much into the score of this one if it goes badly.
Buffalo Sabres Blogger • 
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