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Thursday Night Pix - 5 BIG/1 Small plays!

December 2, 2021, 2:00 AM ET [12 Comments]
Puck Pix
NHL odds analysis • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Last night 1-3 -5.65 Units
YTD 110-81-2 +29.65 Units

Wow, what a night! I definitely took a hit, so apologies to anyone who followed the plays last night. Let's get back those dollars tonight. Both teams that were sitting rested at home while their opponent played the night before, lost. But it happens, you have to continue to play the systems/trends/angles, you name it. It was definitely one of those nights as Vegas started very flat falling behind by 3 goals only to almost come back and almost pull it off. The Knights had 2PPG and 2SHG, crazy special teams but not enough even against the Ducks back up goalie. Ottawa was a bad call on my part and Seattle deserved a better fate losing in a shootout. The Leafs are easily the hottest team in the NHL and I wish I had hit them for a bigger play last night. I will be back late in the afternoon with starting goalie info and final plays. The game analysis is below for tonight's 10 game card!

**Husso/Vasilevsky goailes**
The Lightning and Blues play the 2nd of a back-to-back in TB tonight. TB blew a 3-0 lead in STL the other night and lost in a shootout. You know the Lightning will bring it tonight and a small fav at -140 looks solid to me considering how well the Lightning play at home. TB heads out on a 5 game roadie after this home game too. Strong lean TB-140.

**Johansson/Allen confirmed in goal**
As I said in the blog yesterday, the Avs goaltending is an issue and they did nothing to prove otherwise in their 8-3 to Toronto. They play at Montreal tonight, then Ottawa and Philly, all 3 teams don't have the talent of Colorado, so let's see if the Avs bag these points or get caught sleeping against weaker opponents. The Habs were sitting rested while the Avs got throttled, so does Colorado come out hungry or does Montreal jump on a wounded team from last night? The Habs are only a +145 dog, but they are a much better home team. Back later on this game.

**Dell/Bobrovsky goalies**
The injuries are mounting for Florida, plus they are off a huge emotional come from behind win over rival Washington 2 nights ago. Buffalo has lost 6 of 7 and is a terrible road team. I always worry about these games when you have a top 5 team against a struggling team, do they get caught looking past them. Buffalo +245 or Florida -285, pass for me!

**Fleury/Vanacek goalies**
The Caps are off a tough stretch against Carolina and Florida twice, plus the injuries are starting to add up for Washington. The Hawks have been off since Thursday and are playing much better under HC King. Strong lean to the Hawks +170 in this spot, Caps -200 is just nuts!

**Forsberg/Raanta goalies**
Carolina has lost 4 of their last 5 games but they were on a crazy part of their schedule. I always say it's about situations and systems, tonight is one of those. The Canes are one of the best defensive teams in the league against one of the worst scoring teams in the league in Ottawa. The Sens have lost 12 of 13 and are terrible on the road. The Canes sat rested in Carolina last night while Ottawa played at home. Massive lean to Carolina on the PL(-128) as this should be a mismatch.

**Hill/Sorokin goalies**
The Sharks have won the first 2 games of their roadie over Chicago and NJ. Now they play the NY Islanders who have been off for 6 days due to covid. NYI has yet to win in their new rink too. The Sharks are small dogs at +105 and the Isles small favs at -120. Sure NYI will be fresh/could also be rusty too, but SJ has been playing some great hockey. Slight lean to SJ.

**Swayman/Saros goalies**
Boston is without Marchand and their HC Cassidy, both are vital to this team's success. I have been saying all year that Boston isn't getting the goaltending as they have in the past. The Bruins are very average on the road and the Preds are very good at home! Nashville has been one of the surprises in the early part of the season in due part that they are finally getting production from their highest-paid players. No way Boston -120 should be favoured in this spot, let alone on the road without their best player and coach, but this is a public line. Strong lean to the Preds at even money.

**Blackwood/Kahkonen goalies**
The Wild are terrific at home vs a horrible road team in NJ tonight. Wild -175 or NJ +155, this line seems low for 2 teams going in opposite directions, so I am staying away from this game for one reason. Minnesota has Toronto on deck at home! The Wild could very well get caught looking ahead to the red hot Leaf. Pass for me.

**Tarasov/Oettinger goalies**
Dallas is finally living up to expectations with the talent they have on their roster, winning 5 in a row and 7 of their last 8. The Stars have knocked off Edmonton, Colorado, and Carolina at home, very impressive! But I worry that they will have a letdown with CLB coming to town and the Jackets are off an embarrassing 6-0 loss in Nashville. CLB on a tough roadie at STL, Nashville, Dallas and Washington. Dallas -169 looks too easy and the Jackets are only +14 as dogs. Back later on this one. Slight lean to the under too.

**Markstrom/Peterson goalies**
The Flames are off a huge emotional win over Pittsburgh and now hit the road again for 4 more games. Calgary is an astounding 9-2-2 on the road yet they are only -145 favs over a struggling LA Kings team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games and their only win was against last place Ottawa. The Kings +125 line seems very odd. Sutter gets to play the team that he led to two Stanley Cups yet they are a small fav. Back later on this one, it seems too good to be true. Slight lean to the under here as both teams play a lot of low scoring games!

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The following numbers from last night were requested by all the Draft Kings reader's here, so I hope all of you that read the column daily can use them to your advantage -
Total goals last night - 49 (Home - 29/Road - 20)
Total PP goals last night - 9
Total SH goals last night - 3
Favs were 4-2 last night. The last six days 41-19 for the favs!
**Another prop to try is empty-net goals, you would be surprised how many are scored each night as coaches tend to pull the goalie earlier than if down 1 or 2 goals.

Home teams are now 195-153. Over/Under the total is 168-169-7 on the year.
Teams in back-to-back consecutive road games are now 28-22-1 over/under the total.
Teams rested the night before when their opponent plays the prior night are 31-22.
East vs West games, West 73-68 over the Eastern Conference.
Teams playing 3 in 4 nights on the road, bet against in 3rd game - 16-8
Teams playing 4 in 6 nights on the road, bet against in 4th game - 16-4
Teams off 5 game roadie or more, bet against them. 9-5
Teams playing 5 in 8 nights on the road, bet against them in 5th game - 7-3
Teams playing in their 6th straight road game, bet against them. 1-4

Playing tonight- Back later with more confirmed plays, be sure to check back throughout the day!

Carolina -1.5(-128)(3 Units)
Nashville - ML(even)(2 Units)
TB - ML(-150)(2 Units)
Hawks - ML(+170)(1 Unit)too good to pass up!
Wild - ML(-170)(2 Units)
Flames - ML(-148)(2 Units)

If anyone has a system that they would like to share in the comment section, please do! We're all trying to help each win $, anything that can help the group here would be great.
If anyone has any questions or comments, either drop me an IM or leave a comment in the discussion section of the blog. I always get back to everyone!

Good Luck Tonight!
Puckpix
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