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A Competitive Rebuild: Poile's Last Stand

July 18, 2021, 11:33 PM ET [23 Comments]
Clay Brewer
Nashville Predators Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
I’m sure if you are reading this, you have already seen the expansion protection list. If not for some reason, you can view the list for all teams here:Every Team, Who's Protected and Who's Not and the Preds specifically below.

Full disclosure as to the timing of this article: In order to avoid any brash initial judgments and the fact that everyone saw this at the same time, I do not find any benefit in rushing to conclusions or simply publishing what everyone can read for themselves on NHL.com, so this is why this article is being published now as opposed to immediately following the official list announcement. I believe on hockeybuzz we should present our analysis and views of the team we cover as opposed to regurgitating what every other news source has already presented with zero genuine analysis but for the list of names and typical cliched two sentences about each player and why they were right, even though they never were.

Unless I have the breaking news, I want to take a moment to truly present a coherent and well-thought article each time. As a result, it may take more time to gather my thoughts and give the reader what it is I think they would enjoy.

Aside from some Monday-morning quarterbacks out there, the list presented a few surprising twists. In my initial articles I promised a critical eye and to give you all an in-depth analysis, not something mediocre and written quickly just because or to be first without putting any genuine thought into it.

Now, let’s address the key questions as I give my perspective on the decisions that were made within the war room on 500 Broadway.

Preds Expansion Protection List: 5D, 3F, 1G

Filip Forsberg F
Luke Kunin F
Tanner Jeannot F
Roman Josi D
Mattias Ekholm D
Dante Fabbro D
Alexander Carrier D
Phillipe Myers D
Jusse Saros G

The Preds were the only NHL franchise to protect 5 Defensemen. (enter shrug emoji).

Tampa and Toronto were the only 2 teams to protect 4 D.

For my specific predictions, I was close, as I did predict Ellis being made available or traded. The acquisition of Phillipe Myers put a bit of a twist on things, but absent any side deals, Preds management appear to be quite high on this young, big man. As I cannot present an adequate assessment absent random stats and from what I have read, I’ll link you to Bill Meltzer’s assessment on hockeybuzz here: Bill Maltzer's Assessment On Ellis Trade and Myers to see his take on Ellis for Myers and Patrick as I think his views on Myers in particular will be more apt than mine at this point in time. Although currently I am encouraged from his praise of Myers and the potential he has.

And now here we have it, the bombshell, maybe? The biggest surprise for many within the comments and Preds fans in general appears to be the inclusion of 24-year-old Tanner Jeannot. Trust me, I was blown away at this decision upon first glance too, so I forced myself to reach out to individuals to push back on my initial thoughts and to see what I could be missing, while trying to get inside the mind of Poile and his staff. Because believe me, if I would have issued this article immediately upon hearing the news, to keep it mild, it would not have been entirely pleasant as I would have let my fandom far outweigh my critical eye that I promised all you.

So . . . here we go . . . Jeannot brings a fire and relentless determination that made Preds fans love Arvidsson from the start. I loved this player and what he brought to the table this last year, but to protect him over Sissons is somewhat baffling to me. Something else surely has to be brewing behind the curtain. I cannot bring myself to believe that it is being left at this. I had Sissons on my list and this is what I wrote about him in making my decision.

“(Excellent contract. Has term but at a manageable price of $2.8m. Very smart player. Not flashy but can play every facet of the game. He has lots of experience and has stepped up when asked. Remember, our number 1 center in the Finals and the hat trick against Anaheim? Dude can play and I won’t let him go on such a friendly deal.)”


In Poile we trust? Well… that is until we don’t. The main conclusion from the Myers and Glass acquisitions along with the protection of Jeannot? I’d say three things: (1) size, (2) size, and (3) well, size. But interestingly enough, it’s not abnormal size but more like the old Sharks teams that were skilled and would just tower over you, remember when the Preds met the Sharks in those first-round matchups back in the day? Yea, not pretty. I don’t have a problem with this shift, as Hynes is undoubtedly getting his way as one of you mentioned in the comments of my previous article. But Hynes getting his way may not be a bad thing. Let the man work. I wasn't a fan upon his hiring either, but he’s here so let’s see what this new strategy brings . . . or doesn’t.

To illustrate the SIZE:

Phillipe Myers: 6’5” 210lbs

Cody Glass: 6’3” 206lbs

Tanner Jeannot = 6’2” 208lbs

There is no doubt these boys will throw the body around. It’ll also be fantastic to have a big man like Glass up the middle to, hopefully, accommodate Johansen with his own size. Yes, I believe in Johansen still and remain adamant on his abilities (my bias towards his play is well known and I will continue to be shameless in doing so, to quote the great Garth Brooks in honor of Music City). Moreover, the more I think about it, I do not see Seattle taking him in the Expansion Draft, BC native or not. But frankly, what the hell do I know from what we saw this morning?

As for Ellis, it looks like I was onto something, while others across the hockeybuzz forums and other talking heads thought he was too valuable to part from. I know it was quite risky in my presentation that Ellis should have been exposed, so I am more than thrilled we gained Glass from this trade. The benefits of Myers will be icing on the cake if he plays out as Poile seems to believe. Poile's Post-Trade Press Conference

Here’s what I previously wrote about Ellis in making my expansion prediction,

“(This is a tough one. He seems to have lost his touch lately. Getting slower, no longer the dominant force he was before and the young stud we remember from leading the point for Team Canada and Windsor. I still have faith, but this one is on the edge for me. He’s under contract until he’s 37. If he's slow at 30, then well 37 doesn’t seem to look good, unless we suddenly get some Benjamin Button stuff going on).”


So where do the Preds go from here?

As I mentioned previously, My Preds Expansion Thoughts and Predictions the Preds are in need of a rebuild but a rebuild that does not constitute a complete blow up. This is something that both Poile and I strongly appear to agree on, we have a love-hate relationship. Following the trade of Viktor Arvidsson to the LA Kings on July 1 for a second-round pick in 2021 and a third-round pick in 2022 and the, surprising to some but not to others (hate to brag or anything) trade of Ryan Ellis to the Flyers for D-man Phillipe Myers and Forward Nolan Patrick, Patrick who was then flipped to Vegas to Center Cody Glass (a former 6th overall pick in 2017), Poile called this a competitive rebuild. A competitive rebuild indeed, David. I like the foundation that is being set, but I also truly believe it can be defined as Poile’s last stand. Let’s make one more go at it, prove to Forsberg and others that Nashville is still a place to be as a hockey player searching for hardware and not simply due to low taxes, pretty girls, and an incredible city environment. Making the moves to part ways with fan favorites, no longer going for the aging assets or the big name (well as of yet this year) and understanding that when your convictions are not working it’s time for a change. The most successful are the ones who find the humility to take a step back and reassess as opposed to remaining locked into a failing strategy.

If the Preds would have stuck with Myers and Patrick for Ellis, I would have found myself disappointed as the continued rumors of Ellis for Patrick or Ekholm for Patrick from last year always seemed like a weak move to me. However, I recognize that in my previous writings, I was honestly willing to let Ellis go for nothing if it were to come to that decision, so feel free to say well at least we got something. I’ll acknowledge that. Granted we got Glass and I may now have a new favorite over Johansen. Stay tuned and feel free to judge me accordingly. But I truly think the future is bright up the middle for the Preds, a statement we have never been able to make in the entire history of the franchise, not even on the Cup run if you remember.

If you can’t tell as well, I’m going to be pretty upset losing Sissons if it comes to that. The fact that everyone remains high on Calle Jarnkrok is something that is equally baffling. As I have said and will continue to say, Calle Jarnkrok is incredibly average. Yes, being average still means you’re a damn good hockey player, but what Seattle would want to take him for, with the other options available, does not make any hockey sense to me. Unless there are some side deals . . . as I believe there are. What is it that Einstein once said? “Common sense is nothing more than a deposit of prejudices laid down in the mind before you reach eighteen.” I’m not quite sure whether it’s common sense that’s making me think this current dynamic is a bit wacko, or whether my thinking of there being more to the story is my avoidance of such common sense. But now I am just talking in circles and could likely convince myself and the reader of anything, so I’ll leave you with some food for thought as this morning taught us that anything can happen. So buckle up and enjoy!

A few thoughts for the road:

(1) After Wednesday, we will have some more to discuss within the context of side deals, trades, or otherwise, as the Expansion Draft is July 21 at 7pm CST, and Seattle is due to submit their picks as of 8am CST that morning. In relinquishing the Arvidsson and Ellis contracts, the Preds free up $10.5 million in cap space. Poile said he did not make these moves for more cap space in anticipation of Weber’s potential retirement that would result in a $4.9 million cap hit through the 2026 season. Although I do not see Weber retiring as he is a beast of a man and loves this game too much to go out like he did in losing in the Cup final, we all know it has to be in the back of Poile’s head at least somewhat as it would be a dereliction of duty if all potentialities were not considered, especially in this impending flat-cap era. In the long term, we’re all dead, but in the short long term, bills must be paid and consequences from past decisions must be faced . . .

(2) Recent reports have stated that Seattle is very hesitant in protecting big-money contracts, so this is why many teams were making these big guys available in anticipation of this hesitancy. If this were to be the case, then I fully anticipate Johansen and Duchene being Preds for the 2021-2022 season. And honestly, the more I look back and think about it, I think this would not be a nail in the coffin to the Preds as many would think. Ordinarily the most common belief is rarely the best option. But there’s that common sense coming to play again. We all have argued from our pedestal that ditching Johansen and Duchene and not protecting Jeannot is common sense. Well, maybe this common sense is exactly what the Preds do not need in order to hurdle the obstacles that are in the way. We all are hoping for Poile’s last stand to be more reminiscent of victory and survival than a name in the history books like the Spartans at Thermopylae. A valiant effort, but no Stanley Cup to complete the metaphor.

(3) I tend to agree with the readers of hockeybuzz and the vocal prognosticators across a variety of platforms, that if I were Seattle and using common sense, I would take Colton Sissons. He’s a BC native so the proximity to Seattle could result in happy Sissons, happy, I don’t know what rhymes with Sissons, but you get the idea. Plus, his contract is one of the best in the NHL in my opinion. Eklund seemed to buy into this idea in the Hockey Buzzcast when this deal was first announced, although the others did not speak to it so fondly. It’s fine, must be their common sense talking.

(4) Last, my gut tells me there are some side deals going on. Although many “insiders” state that teams learned their lesson with Vegas and are refraining from such talks, I do not buy into this view absent further proof. The moves Poile has made thus far are ingenious (yes, I truly think there’s a genuine plan) and I think there is a greater plan stretching beyond what we have seen. Hot take alert: will this cap space welcome a Suter reunion? I had an article locked and loaded but the Myers acquisition and then his subsequent protection led me further from this idea, although I still think his leadership would be an interesting dynamic for young guys and bring a different leadership vibe than Josi–not better or worse, just different. Fire away in the comments with this one, fellas! Additionally, just because I want the wheels turning, what about a Landeskog? Just thought this should be mentioned with Elliotte Friedman dishing out Nashville’s name in the most recent 31 Thoughts Podcast. However, just a name in passing did not, in my opinion, warrant looking into this much further. I don’t see it now that we have Glass so the middle may not be a need any more for his style of play, but his leadership could be interesting. I still think the Avs will find a way to keep their captain anyways making this a moot point in the not too distant future. But it's the offseason and a little gossip is always fun, right? Honestly, I think the Preds should stay away from the big splashes and those wanting big contracts. We’ve learned our lesson with the max deals, haven’t we, David? But then again, I am currently shifting my mindset and do not think the Johansen and Duchene deals are as bad as they appear on their face, IF this season progresses with both players picking up where last season left off. Trust me, they hear your gripes. It’s not like they just go home, smile, and not care. Professional athletes have pride, no matter how big their bank accounts.

But for now, these are my thoughts, sporadic as always, but I hope you find them informative and interesting. I’ll be watching Wednesday and be sure to have an article out much earlier than this one as I think I will be able to build greatly upon this one once we know more. Cheers to something brewing behind the curtains because as we currently stand, it’s still a yikes for me. BUT, I have faith in Poile’s last stand, yet such faith will never be blind.

Until next time!

Corrections:

I was incorrect in stating in my original article that Yakov Trenin was exempted. That was a mistake on my part. As new information comes to my attention or facts presented are later discovered to be incorrect, I will always admit to those mistakes and present to the readers as such.
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