Ryan Nugent Hopkins is the longest tenured Oilers player on the roster. Drafted 1st overall in the summer of 2011, "The Nuge" was heralded for his elite vision and playmaking ability. At the time, Oilers fans thought they were drafting the elite top line centre that would carry the team into a decade of success alongside Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle. Of course, now we all know what ended up transpiring over that decade. The Oilers were bad...really bad.... bordering on how bad the Buffalo Sabres are right now. Moves were made and other high end players like former 1st overall Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle moved on. Each year turnover occurred but Ryan Nugent Hopkins always remained.

As his career progressed, so did his role on the team. A decent player by the name of Connor McDavid came along, cementing himself as the top line centre for years to come and right behind him came the emergence of Leon Draisaitl as an elite centreman. RNH could have been traded at this point but instead he became a strong two way winger who still scored at a top six rate. In 656 games, Nuge has put up 185 goals and 478 points.

Baby faced Nuge, who doesn't look a day older than the day he was drafted isn't only the longest tenured Oiler but one of the most beloved. While older Oilers fans remember watching Wayne Gretzky or Doug Weight for years, many fans will one day speak in the same way about RNH.

The reason I'm speaking of Nugent-Hopkins in this way is because I want you all to understand how much I value the player... before I start listing the reasons why it might be best for the team moving forward if he is not locked up long term.

For starters, let me be clear that this has very little to do with the down year that RNH just had at 5 on 5. Aside from his second season where he scored a mere 4 EV goals in 40 games, the 8 he scored this season was the worst of his career and even over a full season he would be well below his career average. What was more alarming was his assists; a mere 8 assists at even-strength this season is the lowest of his career. It was less than the 11 he had in 12/13 when he played only 40 games and less than 15/16 where he put up 15 in 55 games. It was a rough year for the centre turned winger but at 28 years old and his surrounding body of work, I fully expect he will bounce-back next season.

I don't have any real question or whether or not the Oilers will be able to produce goals going forward with RNH at centre or the wing in the top six. The question I think that needs to be asked more going forward for Edmonton is whether or not Player X will help the team to secure a Cup. Does RNH provide the team with a unique enough skillset that will make the team tougher to play against in the post-season?

To be clear, this isn't the "bring in another Milan Lucic" argument. Being tougher to play against doesn't have to mean being more physical. This is about finding a balance to the roster and ensuring that each line that is rolled out is able to be effective in the broadest amount of scenarios.

Nuge as I previously mentioned, is an effective two way winger who can also play centre. He is a gifted playmaker and is far more likely to set up a goal than to score one. That being said he has a wicked quick and accurate wrist shot and usually hovers in the 20 goal range each season. Playmaking pass machines are a necessity in the top six, but moving forward under the assumption the Oilers are going to improve their wing depth Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid already replicate this skillset.

To simplify, the most effective lines in the NHL have a playmaking centre, a shoot first mentality winger and a third either more physical or hard forechecking player to keep things alive in the oppositions end.

Look at the Lightning; you have Brayden Point as the main pivot at centre with an elite shooter in Kucherov on one flank and on the opposite side you have Ondrej Palat. Palat is barely 6' and weighs less than 200lbs but he plays an aggressive game and finished second among Lightning forwards in hits this season. He is more than just a physical player as he regularly puts up 40+ points in the NHL.

Perhaps the best example of this is the Bruins. Bergeron is an elite playmaking centre, paired with a high end volume shooter in Pastrnak and the greasy yet effective Brad Marchand on the opposite wing. All are elite players but each bring a very unique skillset.

Looking at an ideal Oilers roster you have McDavid, the playmaking centre alongside Jesse Puljujarvi who his a high end volume shooter who is finally coming into his own. On the next line you have Leon Draisaitl with Kailer Yamamoto who isn't a big body but plays with an edge and forechecks like a fiend to keep the play alive.

Where does Nuge fit in this group? He isn't the high end finisher that a Draisaitl and Yamamoto line likely needs, nor is he the hard hitting or hard forechecking player that a McDavid and Puljujarvi line needs to help create space. Before anyone says it, yes Nuge is a great two way player but he isn't consistently a player to go to the greasy areas or be the one against the boards who forces the puck out for his team. In the defensive end, Nuge can use his stick to break up a play and get things going the other way but once the puck crosses that opposite blue line he is more of a perimeter player.

We also should discuss some of his playoff struggles. Unfortunately due to the Oilers struggles we have very few playoffs series to discuss. Nuge had a great run against the Hawks last summer where he finished second on the team in playoff scoring with 8 points in 4 games. The Hawks were not a skilled defensive team and the more open and run and gun style allowed Nuge more space to dish which is his best attribute. Against a more typical tighter checking series such as the Sharks and Ducks in 16/17 and what the Jets did to the Oilers this year RNH has not produced. Fingers can be pointed at a number of guys this year who didn't produce enough but the fact remains that Nuge also wasn't a solution and can't even blame inexperience like Yamamoto or Puljujarvi.

There are a number of players in free agency this summer that could fill in a role in the Oilers top six. Saad, Tatar, Coleman, Hyman, Foligno, Schwartz, and Hoffman just to name a few. RNH outscores almost all of these forwards on average during the regular season and he may earn you a few more goals in the regular season and an extra couple of points in the standings. The Oilers don't need to worry as much anymore about earning enough points to make the playoffs, they are going to make the playoffs on the regular now. The question is whether some of the above mentioned players will help the Oilers go on a deeper run than Nuge will.

Negotiations between the Oilers and RNH are up in the air right now. In his post season presser, on multiple occasions Ken Holland named Nugent-Hopkins as part of the core of this organization. Clearly they value the player and want him back. If he does return, the deal needs to make sense for both parties. Assuming RNH is back with the Oilers next year, Holland needs to add at least one more top six forward. If a Nuge deal can't be worked out suddenly there are two holes to fill and expecting two high end UFA's to both sign here for a reasonable amount is a risky game.

Should Nuge return I will be happy to have him back on the roster and watch him hopefully retire as an Oiler but if the player and team decide to part and go different ways I believe the team can use that additional cap space to add a player that may better compliment this roster moving into the future.

Thanks for reading.

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