After playing one of their best games of the year on Sunday the Penguins could not follow it up against the Bruins last night. Pittsburgh only generated 3 high-danger chances and had an xGF% of 34.94. The Sunday game, while impressive, was never going to be the standard. The Bruins are a good and they susceptible to a clunker of a game just like everyone else.
I continue to dislike this matchup for the Penguins because I don’t believe they will put their best foot forward, specifically Mike Sullivan’s deployment of the Crosby line. Sullivan refuses to get away from the Crosby vs. Bergeron matchup and it is a big mistake. People casually say the Crosby line (Guentzel-Crosby-Rust) cancels out the Bergeron line (Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak), but it is absolutely 100% not true. The Crosby line gets handled the majority of the time. They don’t produce offense. They are usually playing in their own end. The Penguins are throwing their three best offensive players available to them in the trash bin. They are voluntarily throwing away the offensive potential of their best line. I can understand not getting the desired matchup on the road, but Sullivan leans into it on home ice. He
likes this matchup.
This is from last night, but it isn’t something new, either. This is a long running trend with putting Crosby up against the Bergeron line. Here are Crosby’s last four years (2017-21) against Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Pastrnak per Natural Stat Trick
This. Is. Not. Working.
This is not Crosby cancelling out the Bergeron line. Bergeron is without a doubt cancelling Crosby’s line. Bergeron is one of few capable of doing this which is why you need to change the matchup. Using Crosby in a strength on strength matchup is going to work an overwhelming majority of the time. This isn’t one of those situations. Try something else.
If shot attempts and expected goals aren’t your thing the raw goal totals aren’t any better
It took less than ten minutes to look this stuff up. I have to imagine a pro sports franchise with live video tablets on the bench can access similar/same information.
The Bergeron line is going to own the territorial play regardless of the matchup. They are elite and an absolute force. In the last four years as a line they have a CF% of 59.15, an xGF% of 58.35, and a GF% of 62.50. They have a legit claim as best line in the league along with others like Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen.
Instead of throwing your best offensive players at the Bergeron line while consistently losing the matchup throw some depth players at them who will also likely lose the matchup. Use Teddy Blueger, Zach Aston-Reese, and Brandon Tanev (when healthy) in a defensive assignment. Weren’t people trying to claim Aston-Reese was a Selke candidate last year?
Even if the depth players give up goals you are likely creating a situation where Crosby can cancel out the Bergeron line’s offensive gains with their own because they aren’t playing against Bergeron anymore. Just look at the xGF% Crosby has in his much larger sample against the NHL and not those three players. You don't always need to directly play against someone to "cancel them out". You can match their production away from them as well.
This specific situation is why I think the Bruins are the Penguins worst matchup in the East Division. Pittsburgh is doing it to themselves. The good news is Mike Sullivan could easily change the dynamic. I’m not sure he wants to, though.
Thanks for reading!
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