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Wednesday night pix - 3 system plays!!!

April 14, 2021, 12:24 PM ET [12 Comments]
Puck Pix
NHL odds analysis • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Last night 4-0 +4.98 Units
YTD 170-151-3 +28.88 Units

Very small card tonight with only 6 games on tap but all of them playoff implications teams either try to chase down a better playoff spot or try to get the final playoff spot in their division. The Ottawa Senators are starting Matt Murray in goal for the first time in over a month so be very careful playing the Sens even though they are a very good home team as goalies that return from a long layoff tend to have a first rough outing.

There are 3 system plays tonight and the one involving the Flames/Habs has been hitting at a high rate.

Arizona is going to be a tired a bunch tonight and if the last 3 games are any indication of where their bodies are at, tonight wont get any better with a rested Wild team!

**I have started to research teams that come off at least a 5 game road trip and how they fare in their first game back home.** Its 8-7 to date.

Scenario #1 – Teams that are rested, either sitting at home or on the road while their opponent plays the night before. 19-7 over the last month of tracking it! Hitting at 74% rate! As well, the under is a nice 15-10-1 in these spots! Montreal fits the system tonight!

Scenario #2 – Teams that are playing each other in back to back games, in which the home team loses the first game, the record of the home team in the second game is 73-47. Hitting at 54% success rate. SJ and LA fit the system tonight.

Scenario #3 – Teams playing back to back road games on consecutive nights tend to go under the total in the 2nd game. So far that trend is 34-24-2 when teams play on the road back to back nights.

Scenario #4 - One last angle I am tracking that is slightly profitable and similar to Scenario #1, is when any team loses the first game of a back to back against the same team, regardless if it’s on the road or at home, those teams are 95-68 in that situation.

Quick stat updates -
First period totals going over were 5-1 last night and are 309-339 on the season.
Road teams were 3-3 last night and are 307-333 on the season.
Game totals going over the total were 2-4 last night and are 301-314-24 on the season.

Gamenotes for tonight –

AZ/Minny – 9th game in 15 nights for the Yotes! Wild have won 4 of 5 head to head this season.

Flames/Habs – Play Scenario #1. Habs sitting rested while Calgary played last night in Toronto. Flames have won 3 of 4 head to head and 3 of 4 have gone under the total this season.

Jets/Sens – Jets have won 5 of 7 this season. Sens have won 2 of the last 3 though and the one loss was 4-3. Sens are a much better home team too! Matt Murray starting in goal for Ottawa and its his first start in a month!

Avs/Blues – Avs have won 3 of 4 head to head and 3 of 4 have gone under the total this season. Both teams have won 3 in a row.

Vegas/LA – Play Scenario #2. Vegas has won 5 of 7 head to head and 5 of 7 have gone over the total this season.

Ducks/Sharks – Play Scenario #2. Sharks have won 4 of 7 head to head and 4 of 7 have gone under the total this season. Ducks have won the last 2 though!

All system plays for 1 Unit each tonight –

Montreal – ML(-166)
LA – ML(+185)
SJ – ML(-183)

Non-sytem plays for 1 Unit each tonight –

Wild – ML(-206)
Good luck tonight!

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More from Puck Pix
» Thursday night pix - 2 system plays and 1 non-system play!!
» Wednesday night pix - 1 system play plus a non-system play!!
» Tuesday night pix - 2 system plays!!
» Monday night pix - 1 system play!
» Sunday night pix - 1 system play!