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Will the Lightning "Pick it Up" Come Playoff Time? |
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Following a stunning 5-1 loss to the Detroit Red Wings, I tweeted over the weekend about the Tampa Bay Lightning’s recent inconsistency and struggles. While their underlying numbers remain okay – though not spectacular – the eye test sees a team that often looks like it’s simply going through the motions.
The responses I received to my tweet can be categorized into two general buckets: (1) Agreement, and (2) “They’ll pick it up when it counts, in the playoffs!” The problem with the latter school of thought is that failing to pick it up now will make it a whole lot more difficult to pick it up in the playoffs. The difference between finishing first overall in the Central Division standings and finishing second or third is stark. The current gap between first place and fourth place is 15 points; the current gap between first place and third place is three points. The Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes, and Bolts are clearly the class of this division. Finishing anywhere but first means a matchup against a VERY good team in the opening round of the postseason.
To put that last point in perspective, consider @JFreshHockey’s recent release of Team Cards:
As good as the Lightning are perceived to be, the Panthers and Hurricanes have been as good, if not better. Betting on Tampa Bay to simply “pick it up” against one of those two teams in the first round of the playoffs feels like an incredibly tall task.
That concern is heightened further when you remember the major reason that Tampa has been able to sit at the top of the standings for most of this season: Andrei Vasilevskiy’s play. Per MoneyPuck, Vasilevskiy continues to lead the league in goals saved above expected by a material margin. He’s saved almost seven more goals than expected compared to the next closest goaltender, Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck. While it’s undoubtedly true that Vasilevskiy is one of the league’s best, betting on him to continue at this absurdly elite pace seems foolish.
The bottom line here is that brushing off any concern about the team’s play now because “they’ll pick it up in the playoffs” ignores some fairly serious x-factors. Without “picking it up” now and finishing first in the Central, they’ll be facing a monstrous opponent in either Florida or Carolina. The need for this team to relieve Vasilevskiy of some of the pressure he’s facing now is clear; the best way to prepare for the playoffs is to play their best hockey today in the lead up to those postseason games. The flip-a-switch plan is no guarantee.
As always, thanks for reading.
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • 
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