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Puck Pix! Friday Plays and more Angles Learned

January 22, 2021, 12:19 PM ET [3 Comments]
Guest Writer
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Last night 0-2 -3.35 Units
YTD 12-10 +2.02 Units

We learned a lot last night! Follow each play on each system no matter! Even though these new scenario’s are just that, new…..you must follow the system no matter what to make it profitable. There is no picking and choosing your spots. We should’ve played both Ottawa and LA, therefore gaining at least a split instead of losing 2 Units on the Sens. Even though the Habs game didn’t go under the total, we should’ve played the Habs to win as when any team loses the first game of a back to back against the same team, regardless if it’s on the road or at home has been profitable too. So instead of losing over 3 Units, we should’ve come close to breaking even. Lastly, the Canucks have now lost 4 players on the back end and quickly have a depleted blue line. They play the Habs again on Saturday night, which looks like a nice spot to play Montreal.

Two new angles that I have been tracking that might be something to look at both short and long term are as follows.

Scenario #1 – Teams that are playing each other in back to back games, in which the home team loses the first game, the record of the home team in the second game is 9-3! Last night it split, tonight we have the Leafs that fit this system.
Scenario #2 – Teams playing back to back road games on consecutive nights tend to go under the total in the 2nd game. So far that trend is 4-2 when teams play on the road back to back nights after Montreal went over the total last night. No teams fit this system tonight.
Scenario #3 - One last angle I am tracking that is slightly profitable and similar to Scenario #1, is when any team loses the first game of a back to back against the same team, regardless if it’s on the road or at home, those teams are 10-6 in that situation. After Montreal hit last night, there are no teams that pertain to this angle tonight.

As for 1st period totals going over, it has taken a huge hit the last few nights. Last night it went 3-3, 25-35 on the season. While road teams were 3-3, 25-35 on the season.
Game totals going over the total went 3-3 last night, 35-24-1, which is still a very profitable angle.

Gamenotes for tonight –
Sabres/Caps - Buffalo is a road fav tonight with 4 key players out for the Caps due to Covid protocols, plus the total sitting at 5.5 tells you Vegas thinks the Caps are going to play tighter defensively with key guys out.

Rangers/Pens – Both teams haven’t played since Tuesday, both teams weak defensively, lean to the total going over.

Sharks/Wild – Wild home opener and 1st of six straight at home. Sharks start the year playing 8 straight road games, this will be their 5th in 8 nights on the road.

Knights/Yotes – 3rd game in a row these two teams go head to head, with Vegas winning the first two at home.

Avs/Ducks – Avs 3rd game in 4 nights on the road. When they play Sunday, it’ll be 4 games in 6 nights on the road, something to watch for here.
Stars/Preds – Stars 1st game of the season! They had their first four postponed.
Red Wings/Hawks – Detroit plays their first game on the road while Chicago has their home opener.

Tonight’s plays –
Leafs – ML(-139)2 Units – As mentioned above this is a system play. Plus I expect the Leafs to be far more engaged than they were on Wednesday night. They need to start winning simple puck battles and be better on the PP.

Preds – ML(-110)2 Units – This is purely a play for Nashville due to Dallas not having yet played a game. This will prove pivotal as any team that has yet to hit the ice versus a team that has had 4 games under their belt. I also really like over the total of 5.5 here.

I am strongly looking at playing Arizona tonight, as they have lost the first 2 against Vegas. They play again on the weekend and I just don’t see Vegas beating them 4 straight. Getting back on homeice will help the Yotes with last change too. I also thought Colorado looked very tired in the third period against LA last night. Ducks are sitting at home rested and if they jump on the Avs early, this is a nice spot for Anaheim. SJ meanwhile is still on the road and the Wild have played some solid hockey to start the year. I might be back to add a few other plays later.

Feel free to ask any questions in the blog and I always get back to everyone. I will have Twitter and Instagram going shortly. Good luck tonight!

Puckpix
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