Let’s be honest, training camp for the Penguins this year doesn’t have too many juicy storylines. The roster is set and most of the players are slotted where they will be when the season starts. The one curveball is Kasperi Kapanen’s visa issues, but it will get resolved and he will slot in on the top line on the right wing after quarantining with Rodrigues moving back to the third line.
Seeing as though nothing of importance is going to happen until the season starts on Wednesday I wanted to go back to something Jim Rutherford said earlier in the week to Josh Yohe. He spoke about how his intention to build the team moving forward will be through free agency.
“We’ve got to have some young guys in key spots,” he said. “The key to this as we go forward a couple of years down the road will be plugging in an impact player into the lineup. Maybe a couple of impact players. Not just a good player, but an impact guy. It’s hard to get the truly impactful guys, players like Crosby, Malkin and Letang. But the time will come when we’ll have to add one of those types of players.
“It’s something we’ll probably have to do through free agency. We’ll have to find the right year to do it, but the time will come when we’ll need to find a truly impactful player who is probably in his mid-20s. As the years go on and some of the veterans eventually move out of our lineup, we’ll have to get two, three guys in their mid-20s. Impactful players. We can do it. There’s a way of doing it.”
Given the fact the Penguins prospect cupboard doesn’t have any sure fire impact players and the team is running very low on tradable assets (current players or draft picks) I can understand why Rutherford would want to lean into the free agency option. Giving a player a big contract to improve things immediately makes a lot of sense. The chances of Rutherford being around by the time the contract goes bad is minimal. Rutherford’s willingness to go the free agency route isn’t the only variable at play, even if it is an important one.
Does Jim Rutherford have a history of doing this and was it successful? Surprisingly, after combing through his entire tenure in both Carolina and Pittsburgh this is uncharted territory for the most part. You would think an active GM like Rutherford and a two decade sample would yield more examples of impact free agency signings, but there wasn’t much to be had. The free agent contracts that stood out:
It isn’t exactly murderer’s row. Kaberle was traded after only 29 games with the Hurricanes. Alex Semin had a very good year, but Rutherford followed it up with the five-year 35M contract which was ultimately bought out. Ehrhoff’s tenure in Pittsburgh was inconsequential. Jack Johnson was bought out. Rutherford went over the top with the Tanev’s contract considering he is a fourth liner. That’s pretty much the list. He hasn’t used this approach all that often.
In Rutherford’s quote he talked about finding an impact player (not on the level of Crosby, Malkin, or Letang) in their mid-twenties. Unfortunately, I have some bad news. Unrestricted free agents are very rarely available in their mid-twenties, at least the impact players he wants to target. The lion’s share of players are past their 24-26 window and nearing or entering their thirties. Here are some notable players who changed teams via free agents (not players who were traded and signed with new team) I noticed when scanning through the different years. This is by no means a complete list.
So if Rutherford does want to go the UFA route and spend big, there are certainly always opportunities to do so regardless of if it is a wise choice or not. We can see there are some real doozies (hello 2016). The questions then shift to do the Penguins have the cap space and who is available?
First, what impact UFA’s are available? As of this moment the following players are set to hit unrestricted free agency unless they get a contract done in the meantime: Alexander Ovechkin, Ryan Getzlaf, Taylor Hall, David Krejci, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Brandon Saad, Dougie Hamilton, Gabriel Landeskog, Jaden Schwartz, Kyle Palmieri, and Nikita Gusev.
We know this list is going to drastically shrink when many of these players re-sign with their teams. For the sake of argument let’s assume they are all available this offseason. What does the Penguins cap situation look like?
Pittsburgh’s offseason does not lend itself to a lot of cap relief. All the bigger contracts are still on the books assuming they are still on the roster. The players hitting free agency include Colton Sceviour, Teddy Blueger, Mark Jankowski, Evan Rodrigues, and Cody Ceci. There isn’t a lot of money to be saved here. If Rutherford is serious about pursuing free agents he is going to have to move some money. Marcus Pettersson seems like the most obvious candidate to me, but if Rutherford is feeling spicy does he entertain someone like Kris Letang even if it is a horrible idea? I hope not. Adding to the issue is the current economic climate. I can't see a scenario where the cap will be going up to give the Penguins or any other NHL more space to work with.
Now, there is another route for free agency. It is the path less traveled for many general managers, including Rutherford. You could go the restricted free agency route. Going this route should/would land you an impact player in their mid-twenties or potentially younger. The issue here is that you need to use draft picks as compensation. I have no problem with the Penguins blowing through some picks for an impact RFA at this stage of the game. However, there is a huge roadblock to this approach specific to the Penguins. You need to use your own draft picks for compensation.
The Penguins have already used their 2021 first round pick in the trade for Jason Zucker. This closes the majority of possibilities for impact RFA players. To land an impact RFA you will have to pay enough money to put the other team outside of their comfort zone to match. This guarantees you’ll be in the compensation range which requires a first round pick. Also, the whole cap space situation applies here just like with the UFA situation. The Penguins don’t have the draft capital or the cap space.
Edit: I screwed up the italicized part. No the Penguins do not have a 2021 1st round pick, but the 2022 pick would be the compensation necessary to make a competitive offer to an RFA this offseason. HOwever, there are still a couple hurdles. The first would be Rutherford not trading the 2022 pick. He has traded the first round pick six out of the seven years. The only time he used it was to draft Kapanen and he used this year's pick to reacquire him. The other hurdle is the fact NHL GM's don't even give out offer sheets.
The upcoming offseason isn’t looking favorable for the free agency approach whether it is for UFA or RFA. The Penguins don’t have a lot of tradeable assets to improve the current roster, either. They are kind of stuck in the mud unless they move players they shouldn’t be moving.
Thanks for reading!
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