So Mike Matheson is going to be a Penguin for quite a long time. In fact, his contract is the only one the Penguins currently have for the 2025-26 season. Rutherford went all-in on betting Matheson will be better in Pittsburgh than he was in Florida. This has to work out because if it doesn’t it will be disastrous.

So what does success look like for Mike Matheson?

He is an above average shooter from the defense position. Each of the last three seasons he has shot above 6%. It doesn’t seem like a lot, but for a defenseman it is good. Last year he was at 7.7%. Over the last three years Matheson ranks 28th overall among 213 defensemen who have played 1,500 minutes at 6.5%. He has scored 10, 8, and 8 goals the last three years. So while the shot is good, and the goal numbers are fine, it isn’t going to move the needle a ton.

Matheson’s skating is definitely a positive. He is able to move up and down the ice. He is able to do so while using his size (sound familiar). Being able to skate and use your body isn’t inherently bad, but it isn’t inherently good either if you aren’t using your brain. The Penguins already signed a bottom pairing defenseman long term who does both of those things and it hasn’t turned out all that well.

Great shift by #FlaPanthers Mike Matheson in the 2nd period...takes the puck up the ice and does everything himself: pic.twitter.com/fMyJ6C8y7j

— Cats On The Prowl (@Cats0ntheprowl) January 6, 2018

The microstats are kind to Matheson, but have yet to translate to positive on-ice results

To Matheson's credit, his microstats were actually pretty good this year and there's a chance my model is wrong about him without that nuance, but it's still strange his on-ice results are so poor. There's a disconnect here worth exploring. pic.twitter.com/7HuvxWH1wy

— dom luszczyszyn (@domluszczyszyn) September 23, 2020

Some more numbers

The Penguins have traded for Mike Matheson.
Matheson is a great skater who moves the puck well, recovers loose pucks & wins battles at a high rate. Matheson was prone to turnovers last season, turning the puck over on almost 1 of every 5 puck possessions at even-strength. pic.twitter.com/mAhGslnFHU

— The Point (@ThePointHockey) September 24, 2020

What I take from this is Matheson is more than willing to engage and use his frame to win puck battles. He is very good in controlled zone entries. He likes to skate the puck. All of these things are good, but they don’t have the positive impact on the game they should because when he gets the puck every five times he turns it over. One out of every five times. There is something broken about his approach and execution with the puck. Saying “well Todd Reirden just needs to work with him on that” is a weak take and assumes NHL coaches from another franchise didn’t notice these turnovers or try to get him to stop making them.

Watched some Mike Matheson game tape yesterday night. His skating is a huge strength but I think it leads him to put himself in tough positions. Turnovers are a big problem with him, see this short comp (powered by @InStatHockey) #letsgopens pic.twitter.com/A7XYTfyWEV

— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) September 25, 2020

The idea that the Penguins are unique in how their coaching staff deals with players is a stale narrative. Even with Reirden being a change from Jaques Martin and Sergei Gonchar do we really believe these three are above and beyond the other coaches trying to do the same things around the league? I don’t and it isn’t a criticism of them. The reality is you aren’t drastically changing an NHL player in their mid-twenties. The best thing you can do is shelter the player with favorable deployment, but that begs the question of why you would pay a premium (4.5M) for somebody who needs their hand held. At least Justin Schultz was right-handed and played the right side.

This is a huge risk for the Penguins to take on for not a ton of reward. They already had enough money sunk into left defensemen (Dumoulin, Pettersson, Johnson, Riikola) and while more moves are surely on the way I just don’t see the need to invest 4.5M in Matheson when you already have Brian Dumoulin and Marcus Pettersson firmly playing top four minutes. I think even in a best case scenario we are still talking about an overpay on a team that can’t afford more overpays. It is an overpay on a position that wasn’t a need. There was no need to take on the risk. It remains an aimless acquisition.

Thanks for reading!

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