Last week, I broke down each of the eight play-in teams and their odds of beating the Golden Knights in the round of 16. Long story short, no play-in team should beat Vegas. Where the real challenges come, are in the Round Robin round and the later rounds of the playoff.
A Pacific Division Championship and a spot as one of the top four seeds in the Western Conference is a solid result for Year Three. Your 2018 Western Conference Champions are now looking to get back to the Stanley Cup Finals. Joining them in the top four Round Robin round are the Colorado Avalanche (1), St. Louis Blues (2), and Dallas Stars (4).
Contrary to the seemingly harmless play-in teams, that group of four is dangerous. All four teams are evenly matched, finding their own unique ways to win. It really is anyone's game in the Western Conference. The Golden Knights finished the season with a 3-4-0 record against their round robin opponents.
Where else could this review start than with the 2019 Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis Blues? They added another Central Division Championship to the record books, but due to point percentage, they'll start the round robin as the two seed, behind the Colorado Avalanche. This may be an x-factor because we've seen what happens when that team has a chip on their shoulder.
Of the other top three teams, the Golden Knights had the most success against the Blues. They compiled a 2-1-0 record via two overtime wins, one being a miraculous comeback on Jan. 4. The Golden Knights and Blues have some similarities as well as players with connections to both clubs.
Restored Health:
When the league paused, neither team was exactly healthy. On one hand, the Blues had been playing without superstar Vladimir Tarasenko since October 24. The 28-year-old winger posted at least 30 goals and 65 points in each of the last five seasons.
More recently, defenseman Jay Bouwmeester fainted on the Blues' bench and hadn't returned over the next month. If you've seen the video, it's hard to unsee. The veteran defenseman went from casually sitting to suddenly sinking below the boards and out of sight.
Tarasenko is expected to return prior to the start of Phase 3. His addition to the already potent Blues lineup will be a shot in the arm for a team that doesn't necessarily need one. Bouwmeester's status remains a mystery.
Much maligned in their own right, a high-profile trio of players was sidelined for the Golden Knights pre-COVID. Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, and Alex Tuch were all recovering from injuries at the pause. Although the team was performing well, losing two top-six forwards and one who would be for many other clubs, is never ideal.
Stone and Pacioretty have been lethal together, regardless of the center. They have had plus-production with Paul Stastny, Chandler Stephenson, and Cody Glass all slotting in at 2C. Just last week Mark Stone confirmed on Zoom, "I'm ready to go, I'm one hundred percent, and I'm ready to try to win the Stanley Cup."
Terrifying Tandems:
Before Jordan Binnington burst on the scene, Jake Allen commandeered the Blues goal. He and the team in general, had a rocky start to the 2018-19 season, when Binnington came and saved the day.
Pun intended.
Here we are, a Stanley Cup later, and 2019-20 has been very good to both Allen and Binnington. Together they backstopped the Blues to a Central Division Championship. They're hands-down, one of the best goalie tandems in the NHL.
Not so fast. As of the trade deadline, the Golden Knights also boast a dynamic duo in goal. GM Kelly McCrimmon stabilized his team in net, acquiring Robin Lehner and his expiring contract, from the Chicago Blackhawks. Lehner was brought in to be the yin to Marc-Andre Fleury's yang and the latter was all for it.
Fleury is certainly the face of the franchise. He was consulted by management prior to bringing in Lehner. The younger, bigger, and composed Lehner fits in perfectly beside the athletic, wild veteran Fleury. After leaning heavily on Fleury for two seasons, the team went and got him as good a backup as they possibly could.
Some of their standard statistics won't blow you away, as evidenced here:
Jordan Binnington:
30-13-7, 2.56 GAA (12th), .912 SV% (29th)
Jake Allen:
12-6-3, 2.15 GAA (2nd), .927 SV% (4th)
Marc-Andre Fleury:
27-16-5, 2.77 GAA (28th), .905 SV% (38th)
Robin Lehner:
(CHI) 16-10-5, 3.01 GAA, .918 SV%
(VGK): 3-0-0, 1.67 GAA, .940 SV%
(TOT): 19-10-5, 2.89 GAA (37th), .920 SV% (11th)
But, their advanced metrics show how good they are, with one surprising outlier:
Jordan Binnington:
3.31 GSAA, .560 QS%, 5 RBS (of 50)
Jake Allen:
11.23 GSAA, .667 QS%, 2 RBS (of 21)
Marc-Andre Fleury:
-6.50 GSAA, .500 QS%, 9 RBS (of 49)
Robin Lehner:
12.67 GSAA, .559 QS%, 4 RBS (of 34)
GSAA: Goals Saved Above Average
QS%: Quality Start Percentage
RBS: Really Bad Starts (sub .850 SV%)
Fleury's gradual decline has been no secret. He's struggled with injuries and was leaned upon too heavily for two seasons. After acquiring Lehner, the reasoning was revealed when McCrimmon said they didn't feel they could win playoff games (with Subban), if Fleury didn't start.
Now that he seems to be in a 50/50 split with Lehner, the former Cup winner and future Hall of Famer should return to form. If his inconsistency continues, Lehner has shown his ability to carry the load. Both teams are in great shape in goal.
Familiar Faces:
Longtime Blue David Perron, would have gone down as one of the best expansion draft picks for the Golden Knights, if they would've signed an extension. Without a contract offer, Perron returned to the Blues after a season in Vegas and maintained his high-quality play. Former GM George McPhee dropped the ball letting Perron walk.
Instead, Ryan Reaves was brought in and given a $2.75 million per year extension for two seasons. Those two seasons ended with COVID and he was promptly resigned for another two, at $1 million less per season. Now closer to an appropriate fourth-line salary, Reaves' contract remains an overpay, but a less egregious one.
Forward Depth:
Once Tarasenko returns, the Blues are as good as anyone up front. Names like his, Ryan O'Reilly, Brayden Schenn, Jaden Schwartz, Alex Steen, and the aforementioned Perron lead a deep group in St. Louis. Then add in the offensive defensemen Alex Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko and you have something special.
Five players have surpassed 50 points and 11 players have scored 10 goals or more. Their 223 Goals For are well above the league average and 24.26% power play shows off that firepower. Even without arguably their best scorer, the Blues have been lethal.
There's also no shortage of offense for the Golden Knights. They're the No. 1 play-driving team in the NHL with a sparkling 55.3 Corsi For %. They come in one goal ahead of the Blues on the season and that's despite an inconsistent power play. Their special teams units are the very definition of the phrase "hot and cold".
Stone, Pacioretty, and Reilly Smith all posted 50-plus points while Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, and Shea Theodore all slotted into the 40s. Just below them, Paul Stastny, Alex Tuch, and Chandler Stephenson provide more than competent complimentary offense.
Both teams are fairly evenly matched and a potential series could come down to special teams, something Golden Knights fans don't enjoy hearing this time of year. A one-game round robin is a clear toss up, between two great clubs. A hot goalie, PP, or PK could be the deciding factor and both teams have the personnel to do it.
I give a slight edge to the Blues, due to the return of Tarasenko and out of respect for the defending champs, but never count out the Vegas Golden Knights. The misfits might just get ya.
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