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The NHL and NHLPA have finalized the playoff format for when the league returns to action this summer, should COVID-19 allow it.
Initially supposed to enter a bracket format, the two sides have agreed upon reseeding after each round. They’ve also decided to make each series – beyond the opening play-in round, that is – a best of seven.
Some thoughts on how these changes could, or will, impact the Flames:
• Calgary is no longer automatically facing the defending champs, and No. 1 seeded St. Louis Blues, should they beat Winnipeg. If any of the underdogs (Chicago, Minnesota, Arizona) pull off upsets, the Flames don’t take on the Blues.
If one team does the job, the Flames get the Avs (no thanks!). If two teams upset the higher seeds, the Flames get the Golden Knights. Should all three teams somehow knock off the higher seed, the Flames would get the Stars. I think that would be – by far – the most preferable outcome as the Stars don’t hold a candle to the other sides.
St. Louis posted a plus-30 goal differential at 5v5. Colorado led the entire NHL with a plus-47 goal differential despite dealing with a ton of injuries throughout the year. Vegas’ number isn’t as potent, however, their mix of speed, high-end forward depth, and 1-2 punch in goal makes them a scary matchup as well.
Truth be told, I think I might prefer a matchup with the Blues over the other top-3 seeds. That’s not to say a series with them would be anything close to a walk in the park. I just think the Avs are lethal and Vegas’ share of the 5v5 chances is ~5.5% higher than St. Louis. They look the part of a sleeping giant.
Either way, the Flames are almost certainly going to enter the sweet 16 as big underdogs – rightfully so – if they manage to get by the Jets.
• There was talk the first two rounds would be BO5 rather than BO7. The decision to play seven after the play-in is bad news for the Flames and other lower seeds.
Simply put, fewer games leads to more variance. There is less margin for error and David Rittich being at his best in, say, two games would all but eliminate a team. By extending the length of a series, you’re giving more time for a talent gap to show through.
Let’s say you’re flipping coins. You have a 60% chance of landing heads, and a 40% chance of landing tails. If you’re doing it five times, it’s not all that unlikely tails wins out. The more flips you add to the equation, the more likely the heads total will be higher.
I’ll have more on the matchup with Winnipeg, and playoffs in general, in the coming months. For now, though, this is what the Flames will be dealing with when they return to action.
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