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Three Questions for Round Robin

June 3, 2020, 4:08 PM ET [1 Comments]
Sam Hitchcock
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
When Phase Four starts, the Lightning will commence the most unusual postseason journey in recent memory. As Tampa Bay plays Boston, Washington, and Philadelphia in their Round Robin to determine seeding, it begs the question: With the stakes lowered, what are the Lightning trying to accomplish when play resumes? I’ve made a list.

Do the Lightning utilize a Mikhail Sergachev-Victor Hedman pairing?
Eight Lightning defensive pairs have played 100 minutes together at 5v5. Only one is scratching around at just below 60 percent in expected goals percentage and that is Hedman with Serghachev. The Bolts’ two best offensive creators on defense have been dominant in their 100 minutes together at 5v5, obtaining a high-danger chances percentage of 58.54 while their squad scored at a 2/1 ratio when they were on the ice.

But with these two together, the trickle-down effect needs to be weighed properly. For instance, Sergachev has been awesome with Kevin Shattenkirk in a larger sample size. They are ranked slightly above Hedman and Sergachev in high-danger chances percentage, but over 529 more minutes. The proof is borne out that Shattenkirk and Sergachev make a strong duo. Likewise, Hedman has been terrific with Jan Rutta. When those two are together, they have a goal for percentage of 68.75, the best of any defensive pair on the team. Without Hedman, Rutta has a 50.00 expected goals percentage and is +1 in high-danger chances. Without Sergachev, Shattenkirk barely misses a beat. The issue becomes who should Shattenkirk and Rutta partner with?

If Hedman and Sergachev play together, that utilizes two of the three Lightning defensemen who are left-handed shots. It forces Erik Cernak, Rutta, and Shattenkirk to possibly play the off-side in a defensive pairing with two right handers. With Rutta healthy, the Lightning need to determine whether to relegate Sergachev and Hedman to sporadic playing time together, and whether the effect of that on the other four defensemen make it worthwhile.

Coach Jon Cooper knows that both Hedman and Sergachev are defensemen who can transport the puck up the ice or jump into the rush. No sane person would question their mobility and offensive prowess. The highest upside is in that pairing. But against a very talented clutch of adversaries in the East, Cooper will need to determine the right dosage for when and how often to use Hedman and Sergachev as his sledgehammer from the back end.

Who should Steven Stamkos play with?
The Lightning won’t win the Cup unless Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Stamkos are productive. But should one of the three be split off to play with two ancillary forwards? Whether Tampa Bay acknowledges it or not, the work stoppage was helpful; Stamkos was allowed to have a full recovery from surgery. With Stamkos spry and ready to participate, Cooper needs to determine during the Round Robin how to best utilize his stars in the postseason.

In 288 minutes at 5v5, the Kucherov-Point-Stamkos line has a roaring expected goals percentage of 59.54. Even more impressive, they have a 62.38 high-danger chance percentage. When the trio is together, Tampa Bay has notched 29 goals and allowed 12. They have trampled the opposition. But does the absence of one of the Lightning’s dominant scorers from the second line kneecap the Lightning’s supplementary scoring more than it helps them by sticking their best players all on one line?

When Stamkos is removed from the first line, the numbers for Kucherov and Point are still great, if less jaw-dropping. The drop-off is modest. And it isn’t last season’s Hart Trophy winner (Kucherov) or the former third-round pick who matured into a 41-goal scorer by the age of 23 (Point) who merits concern. It is the captain.

The Bolts’ other forwards have struggled to complement Stamkos when he has played away from Kucherov and Point. In 344 minutes away from No. 86 and No. 21, Stamkos has an expected goals percentage of 50.09. He has posted a 46.40 high-danger chances percentage. And the Lightning have only posted one more goal than they have surrendered. The central question is: If the first line is stymied, can the Bolts’ secondary scoring save them?

In over 1800 minutes when Kucherov, Point, and Stamkos are not on the ice, the Lightning have a 53.29 expected goals percentage and a 54.70 high-danger chances percentage. They have manufactured nine more goals than they have conceded. But most of these minutes were amassed when facing opponents of varying talent and in games of lesser importance. In the warm-up Round Robin, the Lightning need to determine if Stamkos should play away from Kucherov and Point to spread out the talent or if the role players can be trusted to buoy the Lightning when called upon.

Can the Lightning spark Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow?
In nine and eight games respectively, Coleman and Goodrow have combined for zero goals and three assists. But while neither could find the back of the net, Coleman did demonstrate that he was due for a scoring outburst before the stoppage. The spirited Texan led the Bolts in high-danger chances and shots on goal, and was second in expected goals (behind only Ondrej Palat) in his brief tenure so far. Coleman played 66 out of 97 minutes with Alex Killorn and Anthony Cirelli, and while the numbers are mixed, his numbers away from those two are downright bad. So, while Coleman didn’t produce at the level the Lightning had anticipated during the regular season, there is reason to believe things will improve in the playoffs. If Coleman keeps engineering chances, the math is in his favor.

As for Goodrow, he doesn’t offer the same skill set, so where the Lightning stick him seems less relevant than his usage. If the Lightning stuff their first line with their best talent and lean on Cirelli, Killorn, and Coleman for their second scoring line, I’d love to see Goodrow utilized as a part of a Lightning shutdown line. Cooper looked to Cirelli and Killorn to play against opponents’ best lines in the weeks leading up to the stoppage. But the Lightning acquired Goodrow for his strength on the forecheck and his ability during the penalty kill. They only saw five minutes together, but Goodrow, Tyler Johnson, and Palat could make an interesting checking line.

As holdovers from Tampa Bay’s top-six forward group, Johnson and Palat would need to embrace new roles. Both can transport the puck down the ice and hem the enemy in. Relieved from the pressure to score, they would need to reorient their focus on puck management and transition defense. This line combination is certainly worth exploring in the Round Robin stage.
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