Tony asked an interesting, pertinent question in the last opening of the mailbag, and my response to it was getting so long that it just made sense to create a separate blog. The question was, in essence, a simple one: Should the Ottawa Senators pull the trigger on a quantity for quality trade given the amount of draft capital and prospects they have available?

The relevance of this question is heightened by comments from Eugene Melnyk earlier in the month, when he was quoted as almost definitively saying that the Senators won’t be making all their selections in the draft this year. He said that his club will be looking to package picks to move up.

One common theme of discussion among the fan base since those comments revolves around the New York Islanders pick, acquired in the J-G Pageau deal. What if the Senators could package one or two of their later-round picks to move up further in the first round? Three picks in the top 15 would certainly help to put this team on the right path moving forward, right?

It’s certainly possible that a move-up scenario like that works out in the Senators’ favour; it’s not as though teams haven’t moved up to land eventual star players before. The problem, of course, is that more often than not those moves simply don’t hit the mark. The trade market for high-end draft picks is so overvalued, that it’s almost impossible not to overpay in these situations. Teams often get caught overvaluing mid-to-late first round slots at the expense of surprisingly valuable second and third round selections. As an example, the work that Michael Schuckers has done on draft pick value suggests that paying a third round pick to move up from 12th to 11th overall (as the Senators did when they landed Logan Brown) probably isn’t worth it.

While you can put me in the camp firmly against trading up in all but the most exceptional circumstances, that’s not to say that I completely disagree with Tony’s idea of a quantity for quality trade. The Senators have assets that other teams are going to want, and they have enough that they can likely afford to part with a few. So, what can quantity for quality look like when done effectively?

In my mind, the Senators can look to fill gaps in their roster once they’ve made the San Jose pick and their own. If those two picks are wingers, there’s probably a need to find a young center on the market. If those two picks are forwards, perhaps bringing in an up-and-coming defender might make some sense. With the cap expected to be relatively flat due to the COVID pandemic, there’s going to be opportunities for Ottawa to scoop up quality players for picks and prospects as teams are forced to shed salary. That’s where a quantity for quality deal might make sense this summer.

The bottom line: If the team is set against making all of its available selections, dealing picks for promising young players at discount prices is a better value bet than trying to game the draft by moving up.

As always, thanks for reading.

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