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An Oilers vs Hawks Playoff Series? |
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By now, many of you have seen the reports on a potential playoff format. The details are as followed:
- The playoffs would be set-up as a 24 team format
- The top four teams in the West and East based on point percentages would receive a buy. For the East that would be Boston, Tampa, Washington, and Philly, while the West would consist of St Louis, Colorado, Vegas, and Dallas
- The remaining teams would face off in typical playoff fashion with the top team facing the bottom, the second highest facing the second lowest and so and and so forth
- These would be best of 5 games and once completed the remaining series would be the typical best of 7
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There was never going to be a perfect scenario however this option likely angers the fewest people and therefore is probably the best decision. I would prefer there to be some regular season games before jumping right into playoffs but I understand the logistical nightmare that would entail. For that reason point percentages make the most sense for rankings.
Now for the Oilers perspective.
Edmonton finishes just outside the top 4 in the West as the 5th place team with 83 points and according to this format would place them against the 12th place Chicago Blackhawks who finished with 72 points. The winner of this 5 game series would then go on the play the Dallas Stars.
At face value, the Oilers have a strong edge in this series but a closer look is needed. With Edmonton having finished the season with 71 games and the Hawks having played 70 games we can fairly evenly compare these teams.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Edmonton clearly has the advantage in special teams play. The Oilers lead the league with a PP% of 29.50% through 200 opportunities while the Hawks sit 28th at 15.21 with 217 opportunities%. The Hawks and Oilers are both top ten PK teams with the Oilers holding the second best PK at 84.42% and Chicago 9th with a 82.13% kill. No team has scored more powerplay goals than the Oilers and no team has allowed fewer powerplay goals against.
EDGE - OILERS
EVEN STRENGTH
If Edmonton does lose this potential series, even strength would be the reasson why. The Oilers ran a dominant, if unsustainable good powerplay this season which put them in the position they are now. In reality, Edmonton continues to be a below average team at 5 on 5.
The Blackhawks have scored the 10th most even strength goals this season (169) while the Oilers sit 18th with 161. Edmonton has allowed the sixth most goals at even strength with 174 while the Hawks sit 21st with 169. For the Oilers, the biggest issues come with their bottom six not being able to provide close to enough NHL level offense.
Things improved for Edmonton after December. From the end of December up to the end of the regular season, the Oilers actually scored the fifth most even strength goals in the league, in large part due to the emergence of the Draisaitl, Yamamoto, and RNH line. The Blackhawks over this same period actually finished with the third most even strength goals in the league.
Edmonton boasts a higher top end than Chicago but with more depth throughout their lineup, the Hawks are still the bigger threat during 5 on 5 play.
EDGE - BLACKHAWKS
GOALTENDING
There might not be a team regretting their trade deadline more right now than the Blackhawks. Clearly not in a playoff position, Stan Bowman traded pending UFA Robin Lehner to the Vegas Golden Knights for a second round pick and goalie Malcom Subban who played just a single NHL game this season. Despite losing Lehner, Crawford showed this season he still can be a dominant starter in the league.
Crawford's 0.926SV% at 5 on 5 is just ahead of the Oilers own Mikko Koskinen at 0.924SV%. Crawford allowed 7 more even strength goals than Koskinen while the Hawks netminder faced more than 100 more shots.
This should be a slight edge for Chicago or an even match but Dave Tippett has an overconfidence in Mike Smith and if the 38 year old netminder is given the nod it could be disasterous for Edmonton. Only Martin Jones played more games than Smith and had a worse save percentage at 5 on 5.
EDGE - CHICAGO
FORWARDS
In terms of goal scorers, the Hawks and Oil match up fairly evenly. Edmonton has 8 players who have scored at least 10 goals or more while Chicago has 7. The Blackhawks have 9 players with 20 points or more while the Oilers have 11.
Chicago has a strong top 4 grouping in Kane, Toews, DeBrincat and the rookie Dominik Kubalik but Edmonton comes out ahead with McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, and their own rookie Kailer Yamamoto. Chicago has some better position players lower in the lineup but in a power on power matchup Edmonton comes out ahead.
EDGE - OILERS
DEFENSE
In terms of minutes played together at 5 on 5, here are the pairings we are matching up
Keith - Boqvist vs Nurse-Bear
Maatta - Koekkoek vs Klefbom-Larsson
Murphy - de Haan vs Russell-Benning
The Oilers were far more consistent with their pairings this season than the Hawks. The most minutes at 5 on 5 anyone on Chicago played with together was the Keith-Boqvist pairing at 378 minutes. Bear and Nurse played over 1100 minutes together at 5 on 5.
The Koekkoek and Maatta pairing might be the best pairing of them all however, in terms of being the best duo at both generating and prevent shots and goals but with after trading Gustafsson at the deadline, the Hawks third pairing is definitely the worst of the bunch.
It's close due to neither team having a true standout top guy but I'm giving the edge to Edmonton due to consistency, overall talent across the pairings, and coming into a series fresh will have given Bear and Nurse some most needed R and R.
EDGE - OILERS
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While Edmonton is technically the top seeded team playing the bottom, this is a far closer matchup. Both the Hawks and Oilers were better teams in the second half of the season than the first and Chicago in particular is a far better team than their place in the standings suggests.
If this is indeed what the league agrees upon, this could make for a high octane and fantastic series to watch.
Thanks for reading!
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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