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We are still waiting on official word on the date of the NHL draft but the most recent memo to teams from the NHL has most convinced that the draft will take place on June 5th, 2020 a few weeks ahead of schedule. Also stated in the memo is that the league would need about a month to prepare so we should expect an official decision sometime, well, today I suppose.
There are a few other key takeaways from the league memo on the draft. The first is how the league plans on resolving conditional trades. According to the memo, the teams involved would have seven days to either reform the deal to something both sides agree on, or the accept a solution offered by the league.
The Sabres actually have an intriguing condition here. The Wayne Simmonds trade stipulates that if Simmonds plays 10 regular season games and the Sabres qualify for the 2020 playoffs, the pick becomes a fourth rounder in 2021. Under normal circumstances, we’d dismiss this condition just as we would dismiss the Sabres chances at a playoff spot this season. However, many different scenarios have been floated by the league for resuming the season, and one of the more recent ideas would have the Sabres qualify for the post season.
Then there’s the games played issue. Simmonds has played 7 of the 10 required for the condition to be met, so if the league skips straight to the playoffs and the sabres qualify, they’d likely need to renegotiate this part of the deal with the New Jersey Devils.
The next part of the memo has to do with the lottery. The league has proposed two solutions to this: Either the league will determine draft order through points percentage or, alter the lottery rules for this year only where only one team can win and will only be allowed to move up four spots (similar to the rules back in the early part of last decade). In either scenario, the Sabres are most likely to select 7th overall, the latter would allow them to draft only as high as 3rd overall. I suspect the reason we haven’t gotten our official announcement yet is that there is significant push back on both proposed lottery changes. I expect there to be some kind of change to either scenario no matter which they move forward with.
For now, I will operate under the assumption that the Sabres will be drafting 7th overall since as mentioned before, it is there most likely selection under either proposed selection order. As recent history would show, selecting in this range is always rather awkward. You’re probably not getting a top 5 talent, and you’re probably not getting the kind of NHL talent in a trade that would make it worth your while to trade out of the first round entirely. The most recent example is the Arizona Coyotes trading for the Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta. I did not believe the Coyotes did poorly in this deal at the time, but it was hardly the kind of home run you would think it would take to pry a top 10 pick from a rebuilding team.
Charts/data courtesy of Sean Tierney (@Chartinghockey) and Michael Schuckers (@SchuckersM)
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The image above tells the story. The drop between pick number 5 and pick number 8 is bigger than the drop from pick 32 to the end of the line on this image. This isn’t to say that drafting at 7th or 8th can’t give you any value, but each pick after 5 in the top 10 range adds considerably more risk of the pick coming up short in terms of expectations. This tends to be a bit of a back breaker if you’re a rebuilding team or if you give up a haul for this pick (which is why most teams don’t).
Most of what the Sabres can do to maximize value at the draft won’t be clear until just before their pick. Last year they had some luck on their side when Cozens fell to pick 7, as he provided top 10 talent with less risk involved than say a player like Alex Nylander or Casey Mittelstadt. If the Sabres don’t like what’s available on the trade market and don’t think they can get the impact player they’re looking for at pick 7, they could pursue opportunities to trade up or down.
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Trading Up
Since 2005 there’s only been one trade at the draft that has seen a team move into the top 5. In 2008 the Toronto Maple Leafs trade the 7th, 37th and 68th pick in the draft to the New York Islanders in exchange for the 5th pick, and then drafting Luke Schenn. Given the hype surrounding this year’s draft class, I believe it would take more than what the Leafs gave up for the Sabres to move from 7th to 5th overall, although having two of the same picks the Leafs did is a good benchmark for a deal. The current holders of this pick, the Anaheim Ducks, might be open to something involving roster players in addition to those picks or if the Sabres were willing to take some salary off their hands.
Trading Down
This tends to be the less popular choice among fans, which makes sense. Trading down isn’t nearly as exciting as trading up or for a roster player, but it might give the Sabres the best chance at adding value in this year’s draft. Using the same Leafs/Islanders trade examples from before, after the trade involving the 5th overall pick, the Islanders traded down a second time, dropping down to 9th overall.
In exchange the Isles grabbed an additional 2nd round pick (40th overall), bringing the total return for their original 5th overall pick to picks number 9,37,40 and 68. The Isles took a big risk dropping out of the top 5, but they were also able to add a number of “lottery tickets” to their draft board. If the Sabres can’t find a way to move up in the draft and don’t like what’s available at 7, trading down at the very least gives them more opportunities to take high risk/high reward talents from round 2 onwards, giving them a better shot at selecting a “steal”.
Final Thoughts
Even if the Sabres choose to not move down from the 7th overall pick, trading down should definitely be on the cards for all their other picks. Every pick after the late twenties is essentially one big guessing game. Advanced stats and scouting can give you an advantage, but nothing compared to the ability to simply add more darts to throw at the board. One of my favourite examples is the 2017 draft day trade between the Philadelphia Flyers and Arizona Coyotes.
This is brutal value for the flyers before attaching names to these picks. They saw someone they really liked and believed was head and shoulders above the rest of the field. In exchange, Arizona dropped a few spots back and added two picks to their draft. For what it’s worth, Nate Schnarr, taken with the 75th overall pick the Coyotes got as part of this deal, has a slightly better primary points per game percentage than Isaac Rattcliffe, the player the Flyers gave up an additional two picks to move up for.
Thanks for reading!
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