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With absolutely nothing happening in the hockey world right now, and for the foreseeable future, I’ve decided to take the plunge and write player profiles for each member of the New Jersey Devils.
As was the case when I did them last summer, we’ll be looking at the season they just put together and expectations moving forward.
I’ve written up six players thus far, with P.K. Subban being the most recent.
Today we’re going with Pavel Zacha.
Counting stats: 68 games played, 32 points (eight goals, 24 assists), 16:16 average time on ice
5v5 underlyings: 1.34 points/60, -4.14 CF% Rel, -4.81 GF% Rel, -6.08 xGF% Rel, 98.5 PDO
2019-20 review: Pavel Zacha’s season is the definition of a mixed bag. There were some encouraging aspects of it, and some that give even more reason to believe he’ll never be more than a bottom-6 center. We’ll start with the good.
Zacha produced at a 40-point pace. His previous high was 25 (33 on a per 82 game basis) so that’s an encouraging step in the right direction; especially on a bad Devils team that couldn’t score. Only three Devils managed more points.
He also remained a very strong penalty killer, playing a large role on one of the better PK units in the NHL.
Now for the not so good. Zacha’s point totals were a byproduct of opportunity (more top-6 linemates + a career high in minutes) rather than efficiency. While he averaged more points/60 than a year ago, he produced them at a higher clip in 2017-18 – a year he ended up with 25 points.
Zacha’s individual shot and chance generation numbers dipped across the board. He set career lows in each category.
His on-ice impact was also, well, not good. At all. The Devils were a really bad team and yet they managed to control *at least* 4% more of the shots, expected goals, and actual goals when Zacha was *not* on the ice.
Zacha submarined the possession numbers of almost every player he spent meaningful minutes with. He logged 100+ with 13 different skaters; 11 of them posted a worse Corsi For% during that time than they managed without Zacha.
Fun fact(s): 300 forwards played at least 600 minutes of 5v5 hockey. Only Alex Wennberg, Joe Thornton, and Valtteri Filppula – three heavy pass-first players – averaged fewer expected goals/60 than Zacha (.37).
2020-21 outlook: I don’t think there is much opportunity for Zacha at center, provided Jack Hughes is ready to show a pulse. Nico is the No. 1, Hughes is centering the No. 2 scoring line, and Zajac is still going to get the tough assignments at 5v5 – as he should; his on-ice impacts are much better at ES than Zacha’s.
That leaves 4C minutes for Zacha, or an opportunity on LW. Quite frankly, I think I’d be interested in seeing him play LW3 on Zajac’s line. That line would be destined to score very few goals but, ideally, the same can be said of whichever unit they’re matching up against.
If Zacha doesn’t find his way into a hockey trade during the off-season, I think he is destined to play LW3. He can switch back to center on the PK and/or in the event Hischier, Hughes, or Zajac go down with an injury.
numbers via naturalstattrick.com and hockey-reference.com
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