Many thanks to those of you who submitted blog ideas, I look forward to tackling as many of them as I can during the NHL hiatus. First up will be a two-part series taking a look at the Sabres top 10 prospects, their potential at the NHL level and the likelihood of them reaching either. For this ranking, I will only be considering players who meet the following criteria:
a) No NHL games played
b) Under the age of 23
c) Minimum of 15 games played in their current league
Part 1 will start with the players I’ve ranked 10-6.
*Note, this ranking will be skaters only so don't be alarmed if you don't see Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen on the list.
Data and charts courtesy of:
Pick224.com
Eliteprospects.com
Liiga.fi
Collegehockeyinc.com
10. William Worge-Kreu (Superelit)
Age: 19 years old
Potential NHL role: 3rd pair defenseman
Likelihood of reaching role: 4/10
The Sabres 7th round pick in 2018, Kreu is a bit of a mixed bag. Like Johnson, he’s primarily known for his defensive play, but in his time in the Superelit league he’s shown a bit of offensive upside as well. He’s top 10 in primary points at even strength among DY+2 skaters, put up some points on the power play and is captain of his team.
On the other hand, he is being outpaced by defensemen younger than him in the same league, which isn’t a huge surprise given where and what he was drafted for. His SHL numbers don’t stand out but you would expect that at his age. Kreu’s odds at being an NHL regular still remain a long shot but if he can elevate his game at the pro level in Sweden he may be worth keeping an eye on.
9. D- Ryan Johnson (NCAA)
Age: 18 years old
Potential NHL role: 3rd pair defenseman
Likelihood of reaching role: 7/10
The final piece in the infamous Ryan O’Reilly trade, Johnson is best described as a defensive defenseman with good skating abilities. There are those who like the upside here, given the current trend in the NHL, but there are a lot of red flags, especially for a first-round pick. Here are four quotes from different sites/publications about Johnson in his draft year.
“Johnson is a great skater, who can generate speed with ease and is nimble on his edges. He’s an elusive puck-carrier, EPrinkside.com 2019”
“He plays with an active stick in the defensive zone and defends the blue line well by standing up opponents, Future Considerations 2019”
“His mobility also extended to lateral and backwards motion, as he is very hard to beat with pure speed, McKeen's Hockey 2019
“ He holds the offensive blueline nicely and has a knack for preventing chip outs and getting the puck back in deep,” McKeen's Hockey 2019
Whether you’re into the advanced stats or not, if you’re a fan that consistently follows a team you get used to identifying the sort of hockey speak that makes you shake your head and go “I’ve seen this movie before”. If you’re unsure what I’m referring to, the first two minutes of this clip from Moneyball should help.
The above quotes are more or less hockey’s version of what you just watched. Johnson has just two primary assists on a very good University of Minnesota team this year. For reference, New York Rangers third round pick Zac Jones leads all freshman in primary assists with nine.
This isn’t meant to be a knock on Johnson but a criticism of the Sabres draft strategy. Even if we believe all the qualities listed above, these aren’t exactly hard to come by in free agency or via trade. Last off-season alone general manager Jason Botterill managed to get his hands on two who were right handed. Johnson may have NHL upside, but he’s probably someone they could have gotten in round three or four, if not him than someone similar.
8. LW/RW-Lukas Rousek (Tipsport Extraliga)
Age: 20 years old
Potential NHL role: top 9 forward
Likelihood of reaching role: 4/10
Rousek was a 6th round pick in last year’s draft that went relatively unnoticed but he’s a fairly impressive year in the Czech pro league. He leads all U-21 forwards in points, the next closest forward being 13 points behind him and is second on Sparta Praha in goals with 14. The Czech league doesn’t have much data to go off of but anytime a player that young plays an important role for his pro team, you take notice. Here’s an example of some Rousek’s talent
Nice play by @BuffaloSabres prospect Lukas Rousek to score the game-winning goal in today’s Extraliga "winter classic" game in Dresden.
This is the sort of pick that either really works out for a team or really doesn’t, which is what you could hope for from late round picks. Though Rousek is showing impressive numbers in a pro league, the Extraliga in the Czech Republic is not quite the same as the SHL in Sweden or Liiga in Finland.
7. D- Mattias Samuelsson (NCAA)
Age: 20 years old
Potential NHL role: 2nd /3rd pair defenseman
Likelihood of reaching role: 5/10
At the time of the selection there were more than a few scratching their head when the Sabres picked Samuelsson. Much like Johnson, many including myself felt that there were better options with a pick that early in the second round. However, to his credit, Samuelsson has shown steady improvement since his draft year. His even strength production is near the top for all DY+2 defenders and his primary production at even strength has improved as well. The sophomore at Western Michigan carries some sought after off ice qualities too as he was named captain of both his NCAA team and the US world junior team this season.
(pick224.com)
The improvement in his numbers is encouraging but the odds of him hitting his ceiling are still unfavourable. We know there’s upside there, the question is how much? Samuelsson will likely return to Western Michigan for his junior year, where he’ll have a chance to take charge of his team beyond just receiving the C on his jersey. If he can elevate his game even more, the Sabres may have a mainstay on the blue line.
6. D- Oskari Laaksonen (SM-Liiga)
Age: 20 years old
Potential NHL role: 2nd pair defenseman
Likelihood of reaching role: 5/10
I’m not sure any prospect in the Sabres organization has seen as much rise and fall as Laaksonen has so far. He went from being a questionable reach in the 3rd round of the 2017 draft, all the way up to potential steal in the 2018/19 season, and back down to “what happened?” this year. Aside from injuries, one noticeable change between this year and last for Laaksonen is his usage. He was receiving a higher offensive zone start rate at 5v5 last season and no other DY+1,2 or 3 defensemen was even close to matching his even strength primary point production. He was also 13th among all defensemen in the SM-Liiga in CF% (min. 40 GP)
This year he’s seen his 5v5 offensive zone usage dip down to 48% (59% last year) and the numbers have followed. Despite the extra defensive time, Laaksonen’s numbers aren’t nearly as bad as they first appear. He’s still managing to keep pace with his peers in the SM-Liiga. There hasn’t been much word on where the Sabres envision him next year and you could probably make as a good case for him either staying in Europe or making the journey over to the AHL. Regardless of where he plays next year, he’ll need a bounce back season to help ease the doubt in everyone’s mind, but the potential is definitely there.
Buffalo Sabres Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»