The Lightning are one bad spill or unlucky break away from being forced to play defensemen Braydon Coburn, Luke Schenn, or—gulp—both of them during the postseason. Yet despite having a surfeit of capable forwards, Tampa Bay bizarrely decided to squander its first-round pick to acquire depth forward Barclay Goodrow.

The decision is baffling. Thanks to the recent Blake Coleman acquisition, the Lightning were already quite deep at forward. One would assume management would be more concerned about the team’s thin defensive corps. Also, the cost: a first-round pick for a 26-year-old right wing who has never scored more than eight goals a season in the NHL. This current season, he has posted career-best numbers, which are eight goals and 16 assists.

I immediately looked deeper into the numbers with the assumption that, despite his unassuming boxcar stats, Goodrow moved mountain in terms of ginning up scoring chances and keeping San Jose’s motley crew of skaters in possession. Individually, he ranks 5th on the team in expected goals per 60 minutes and high-danger chances per 60 minutes, which is fine. He is 6th among Sharks forwards in controlling shot attempts. Goodrow ranks third in drawing penalties per 60 minutes, and also loves to take major penalties. One thing that does jump out is San Jose’s reliance on him in the defensive zone. Only Tomas Hertl has more defensive zone starts per 60 minutes. So maybe the Lightning see Goodrow as the final piece for a checking line they want to employ during the postseason.

And yet, even if the Lightning think Goodrow is a solid player hampered by a mediocre franchise, the price they paid for him is ludicrous. Goodrow is almost definitely going to play bottom-six forward, and unless the Lightning move Yanni Gourde off the third line, Goodrow is destined to play on the fourth.

Let’s assume Jon Cooper keeps Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson with Gourde, and Blake Coleman stays with Alex Killorn and Anthony Cirelli. Goodrow then gets slotted in as the fourth-line right wing. Cooper loves Patrick Maroon despite his minimal production in 2020 (two goals and five assists) and the team seems committed to Cedric Paquette. So Goodrow would be replacing Carter Verhaeghe even though Verhaeghe is playing his best hockey of late (he notched seven of his eight goals in January and February).

The Goodrow trade almost definitely consigns Stephens to Syracuse, and yet I’ve wondered if Stephens and Verhaeghe were the Lightning’s best fourth line option. In 23 games together since 2020 began, they have an expected goals rate of 61.94 percent and are a +6 in high-danger chances. They also had a PDO of .949, so better puck luck was likely on the way. They were fast and accountable.

By paying a premium to add a depth forward, the Lightning leave themselves vulnerable at defense. The on-ice numbers are ugly when eyeballing the current 7th and 8th defensemen. In the eight games Schenn has played in 2020, he has the worst expected goals percentage on the team. In the same stat, Coburn has played 15 games and ranks second worst among defensemen and is slightly above Mathieu Joseph, Alexander Volkov, Paquette, and Maroon. Coburn and Schenn are also hovering in the basement of high-danger chances percentage.

The irony is that Cooper tries his best to protect them. No Lightning defenseman has a higher percentage of offensive zone starts than Coburn and Schenn. Among the skaters on the team, the only players Cooper is more eager to start in the offensive zone are Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Steven Stamkos.

The sad part is that defensemen were available. Dylan DeMelo was traded to Winnipeg for a 2020 third-round pick. Alec Martinez was acquired by Vegas for both a 2020 and 2021 second-round pick. Heck, even Brenden Dillon, who came with the price tag of a 2020 second-round pick and 2021 conditional third-round pick, would have been an improvement. All three defensemen are flawed, but each possesses the mobility to retrieve the puck and keep the breakout crisp. They have the skating ability to recover if they or their defensive partner pinch. In contrast, Coburn and Schenn are turnover machines in their own end, flubbing the retrieval and the breakout passes. And they are too wobbly to play aggressively and not get burned at the blue line in the offensive zone. Adding Zach Bogosian does nothing to mitigate that issue. He is another clunky, plodding bruiser like Schenn.

There is a way to turn the Goodrow trade into the best possible result. If this is what it takes to oust Maroon from the starting lineup, then, although costly, there would be a silver lining. Aside from having a vibrant locker room presence and being friendly with Cooper, Maroon seems all negative with no positive as far as his hockey goes. He can’t skate and he can’t transport the puck. His best attribute is likely his forecheck and even that has been wanting of late.

Yes, there was a point this season when Maroon was contributing, but he has been mired in a cold spell and has been virtually useless in recent months. Verhaeghe is much better than Maroon, and a fourth line of Verhaeghe, Paquette, and Goodrow actually sounds quite formidable as far as fourth lines go. But more than anything, the Lightning need to put their defensemen in bubble wrap because they cannot afford any blueliner getting hurt in the postseason.

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