The Lightning got a little loose with their defense in the second half of the game on Saturday, although they managed to pull out a 5-3 win. The Bolts also gifted the Flyers five power play opportunities, and their opponent converted on two of them. But all of these areas for improvement are nitpicking: The Lightning are 22-2-1 in their last 25 games and just completed a ten-game-win streak for the second time this season.

The Bolts are receiving contributions from their stars, depth players, and defensemen. Andrei Vasilevskiy is playing at a Vezina-trophy-caliber level. Suddenly, the Lightning look like they might capture the Presidents’ Trophy—again. But, peculiarly, if the Lightning are to win the Cup, it might be good for them to experience a cold spell, or at least a more pedestrian stretch in the next month.

The Lightning are playing great, but a regression is coming
During their torrid 25-game stretch, the Lightning are playing excellent hockey, but their dominance has not been quite as pronounced as their record suggests. Tampa Bay has an expected goal percentage of 54.64, which is tied for second best in the league during that stretch, trailing only Vegas. In high-danger chances percentage, they rank 6th. One thing stands out: their PDO ranks 1st by a large margin.

The Bolts have a 11.45 shooting percentage during those 25 games at 5v5. Vancouver is second with 9.85. The Bolts’ team-save percentage at 5v5 ranks second. During the first 34 games of the season, the Lightning had a 5v5 shooting percentage of 8.64 (which ranked 8th) and a save percentage of 91.53, which ranks 22nd. Basically, maybe Tampa Bay was a little unlucky to start this season due to a slow start from Vasilevskiy, but right now everything is breaking their way. True, they have suffered a recent flurry of injuries, but even those are minor, at least at forward. Hopefully, the inevitable Lightning regression comes well before the postseason.

What is the best use for the Mitchell Stephens line?
The three players who lead the Lightning in expected goals per 60 minutes are Nikita Kucherov at .9, Brayden Point at .77, and Stephens at .76. Stephens is in the running with Kevin Shattenkirk for biggest surprise contribution this season.

The above isn’t the only impressive number for the rookie. Stephens finishes ahead of Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat, and Alex Killorn in high-danger chances during that 25-game stretch as well. Granted, I’m using rates, and with less ice time Stephens can post a better rate. Stamkos has an accumulated 15 high-danger chances to Stephens’s 13 over that span, but Stephens has a better rate because Stamkos’s stat is based on roughly 70 more minutes of ice time.

What is indisputable is that Stephens has done a really strong job stewarding the fourth line with Yanni Gourde and Carter Verhaeghe. On Saturday, an excellent breakout from the Lightning’s own end led to a pretty passing goal with Verhaeghe placing a quick shot that beat Carter Hart near post.



In 150 minutes since late December at 5v5, the Stephens line has an expected goals rate of 63.24 and a +10 in high-danger chances differential. They outshot their opponents 85 to 62. With a .930 PDO, the Bolts’ fourth line, more than any other grouping, is the most poised to experience a nice streak of luck. But with the Stephens line demonstrating it is an asset, the question is how Jon Cooper will want to use them in the playoffs. Will he want them to be the shutdown line against other teams’ best scoring lines? If the Lightning play Toronto in the first round, would Cooper be comfortable playing the Stephens line against Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner? Or later in the postseason against the Bruins’ David Pastrnak line? Or is Cooper’s plan just to let them beat up on other teams’ bottom-six forward lines?

On Verhaeghe’s goal that gave the Lightning a 3-0 lead, they were out against Michael Raffl, Connor Bunnaman, and Nicolas Aube-Kubel. Despite a transition attack for Tampa Bay, the Flyers’ fourth line proceeded to go for a line change after failing to succeed on the forecheck. Against that type of rudderless play, Stephens & Co. can feast. Their biggest strengths are their speed, but also accountability. They make good decisions regarding where to move the puck and how to stay out of the penalty box.

The Lightning do need depth scoring, but having a fourth line that can neutralize its adversaries’ best players and keep them hemmed in their own end is an invaluable tool come postseason. It’ll be interesting to see how Cooper uses these players down the home stretch.

Join the Discussion: » 6 Comments » Post New Comment

» Verhaeghe's Role if Stamkos is Sidelined

» Stamkos's Linemates Should Feed Him in the Crease

» Three Personal Goals for the Grinders

» How COVID Could Test the Bolts' Depth

» What Happens to Cooper If TB Loses