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Which forward should contending teams target at the deadline?

January 24, 2020, 2:04 PM ET [9 Comments]
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In this edition of the hotstove, we share our thoughts on which forwards contending teams should prioritize at the deadline.

Todd Cordell

It’s pretty clear Chris Kreider, J.G. Pageau, and Tyler Toffoli are the three top rentals available up front. Given their talents, and the rumored asking price, the latter is definitely my preferred choice.

Toffoli scores goals, and produces points, at a 1st line rate (5v5) despite playing for an offensively inept team with little surrounding talent. Neither Kreider nor Pageau can say the same.

Toffoli’s on-ice impact is also very strong. The Kings control a much higher percentage of the shots, chances, and expected goals with Toffoli as opposed to without. That shows on the scoreboard, as Toffoli somehow has an even goal differential on a team -17 at 5v5.

I think the cost of acquisition for Toffoli will be more reasonable than for Kreider or Pageau. The ask on a contract extension probably will be, too.

He’d be my priority.

Sean Maloughney

I'm going to go more off the board in a player with huge potential, one good year under his belt, and the misfortune of being on the worst team in the NHL.

Andreas Athanasiou has had a rough season. After a 30 goal season last year, the speedy centre/winger has dropped to only 5 goals this year and suffered injuries which have also kept him out of the lineup.

Despite all the time he has missed, he is the 5th best forward on the Red Wings in Even Strength P/60. His 5.7 shooting percentage this year shows he has had some bad luck, and more intriguing, his 30 goal season came at a shooting percentage of 13.9% which isn't anything egregious.

With his injuries and struggles this season, acquiring Athanasiou would be the perfect example of buying low on a player that the numbers suggest should bounce back.

He might not be as sexy a choice as a Pageau but considering he is also an RFA at the end of this season, any team that picks him up won't have him just as a rental but as a good player for the future as well.

James Tanner

The rental target has to be Chris Krieder. He might be having a bit of a down year, but his three-year stats look extremely good, and he is a good player on a bad team. In the NHL first line players are just way, way more valuable than anyone else, and while he might not be elite in the McDavid sense, Krieder is a definite first liner. While anyone can be traded at any time, the only impact player rumoured to be available is Chris Kreider. His expiring contract is dirt cheap and his current team isn't making the playoffs. He is obviously getting traded and he's the biggest name on the board for a reason. Every competing team should be pursuing him.

Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com

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