With everything that’s happened around the hockey world generally and Ottawa Senators specifically in the last month or so, it should come as no surprise that this month’s edition of Mike’s Mailbag is our most robust yet. Here are my answers to your questions:

Spatso asks: Do the Leafs target Ron Hainsey at the trade deadline?

I don’t think so. That might have been the kind of move that Mike Babcock would have advocated for, but the organizational philosophy seems a lot more coherent now that Kyle Dubas and Sheldon Keefe are in charge. Hainsey doesn’t really fit the sort of style that they are trying to play.

AlexBoucher asks: When do you think the Sens will make an impactful trade again? I’m not talking about upcoming deadline moves, but rather a large transaction (a la Duchene/Karlsson) to get developed talent. I say this as they are going to have a bevy of prospects after the coming draft and only so many spots.

Having more prospects than spots isn’t the worst position in today’s National Hockey League. If Pierre Dorion is smart, his best play is to be patient like the Tampa Bay Lightning were when their bevy of prospects was ready to turn into a competitive NHL club. There is certainly a move to be made out there, but it should probably be three or four years away.

LondonSen asks: If the Sens don’t land the top pick, do they try to put together a package to move up for Lafreniere?

I think most teams test the waters with respect to moving up in any given year, but the cost is almost always prohibitive. With a talent like Lafreniere available at the top, I don’t see that changing this year. The Sens are probably better off taking the players available with their own pick and the San Jose pick than trying to package together something attractive enough to land Lafreniere.

PavohnDatsvares asks: Why didn’t the Ravens run the ball?

I followed the Marshawn Lynch question last time, but I don’t watch nearly enough football to have any idea of what this one is about.

Ktownfan asks: When do Callahan, Gaborik, and MacArthur come off the books and what impact will that have on front office decisions? Do we throw Bobby Ryan into that conversation as well?

Callahan and MacArthur are both done after this season, and Gaborik will be done after next season. My guess is that it doesn’t change much in terms of front office decision-making. They made a conscious choice to acquire Callahan’s contract, and it’s hard to believe that they didn’t know what they were getting with Gaborik. It’s not as though these were unexpected, adverse circumstances that created a massive opportunity cost for the organization. This is what they wanted.

Bartacus asks: Does DeMelo get re-signed or does he get traded?

He’s worked his way into must re-sign territory, in my opinion.

Octavarium asks: Who do you legitimately believe is a legit NHL player down in Belleville? Perhaps the bigger question will be how Ottawa will manage to keep everyone through the expansion draft? That might be the reason their NHL time is being managed.

Josh Norris is the name that immediately jumps off the page for me. He has all the tools to be an incredibly effective NHL player, and is already showing that he’s close to ready based on his success with Belleville this season. I also still think there’s an NHL player in Logan Brown.

With respect to the expansion draft, the exemption for first and second year NHL players should provide Ottawa with a bit of cover – e.g. this is only Norris’ first pro season.

Feds91Stammer asks: Would you rather fight 10 Pageau sized Borowieckis, or one Borowiecki sized Pageau?

One Borowiecki sized Pageau, of course.

Richard asks: Clearly the number of teams with a chance at the postseason is declining. Should Dorion make moves now before the market gets saturated?

I disagree with the premise of the question. The gap between 25th in the standings and 8th in the standings is 10 points at writing time. There are plenty of teams that still believe they are in the race. The whole 2019 St. Louis factor will also convince bad teams that they can compete, which should bode well for creating a seller’s market come the deadline.

Maggie asks: Of all the UFAs on Ottawa’s team, who should be kept and why?

I think they should keep Dylan DeMelo and Mark Borowiecki. DeMelo is important because he’s… just plain good, and Borowiecki fills that bottom-pairing role nicely as both a fan favorite and a veteran presence on what will be a VERY young team moving forward.

Unpopular opinion: Trading every pending unrestricted free agent forward (or letting those who can’t be traded walk) wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

Mike Crew asks: What is happening with Columbus’ first-round choice this year? I thought if it falls outside of positions 1-3 (lottery protected) then Ottawa gets the pick this year. Is that incorrect?

This is incorrect. The 2020 pick was conditional on Duchene re-signing in Columbus.

Maxgd asks: If the Sens get the 3rd and 7th pick in the 2020 draft, who would you select?

It’s obviously tough to answer this question without knowing what other teams would do, but names that stick out to me include: Stutzle, Rossi, and Drysdale.

Laurie asks: Do you think Jordan Murray will get a chance with the Sens before the end of the season?

He’s signed to an AHL deal, so it would be highly unlikely.

Jeff asks: Hey Mike, with the BSens playing so well, I’m wondering how well they have been embraced in Belleville and supported by fans. Are they a big thing locally? Thanks!

I can’t really speak to the local scene in Belleville as I’m not on the ground there, but perhaps someone else can chime in? I know there have been attendance concerns, but that’s hardly determinative when trying to answer this kind of question.

Shelly asks: What would the Sens want back in a trade with Edmonton for J-G Pageau?

Edmonton’s first-round pick.

Bob Izumi asks: How many goals do you predict Duclair finishes with in 2020? What is his trade value given his history, and at what point do you flip him vs. keep him at the 2020 deadline? (i.e. trade for a late first rounder, keep for a 2nd or worse

I’ll say that he scores 31 goals this season, and I think that the line you’ve set for trade discussions makes a lot of sense.

Kev asks: Who do you think Ottawa will trade, and where to?

This is my least favorite game to play, because I’m simply guessing with respect to destinations. I see a real fit for Pageau in Calgary or Edmonton. My guess is that Tyler Ennis gets moved, though I’m not sure where he ends up. Some contending team looking for grit and experience could take a chance on Ron Hainsey. Vlad Namestnikov may find himself on his way out too.

My guess is that the team keeps Duclair, DeMelo, Borowiecki, and Brown through the deadline. Everyone else is fair game.

Khawk asks: What teams are the most likely trade destinations for the following players? Pageau, Namestnikov, Hainsey, Ennis, Anderson

Here’s my attempt at throwing darts:
Pageau – Edmonton
Namestnikov – Pittsburgh
Hainsey – Florida
Ennis – Carolina
Anderson – Toronto

Khawk asks: Beyond the AHL-level prospects and former 1st round picks, how would you rank the higher-end secondary NCAA/CHL/Europe prospects, like Pinto, Sogaard, Tychonick, Mandolese, Gruden, Novak, and Crookshank?

This isn’t a true ranking, but does provide my thoughts on some of these players.

- The easiest ones to answer here are Sogaard and Mandolese. Goalies are impossible to predict. They could be the greatest things in the history of the NHL, or absolute nobodies. Sogaard seems to get more attention, but I’m subtly excited about what Mandolese might become. When I was reading up on the depth in the Senators system over the summer, his name was one that caught my eye. Goalies of his size will always get a long look from teams. Even though his counting stats were really bad in his draft and pre-draft years, Cape Breton’s complete lack of defensive prowess was more to blame than deficiencies in Mandolese’s game. His stat line has taken a big leap this year, which suggests to me that the Senators might have a player here.

- Tychonick is another one where it’s tough to say what the Sens have in him with any degree of certainty. He hasn’t been able to get much playing time at North Dakota so far this season, which makes judging his performance difficult. Dobber Prospects suggests that he has second-pairing upside, but without more playing time at college it’s tough to see how he reaches those heights.

- Gruden reminds me a little bit of Tampa’s Mitchell Stephens, in that he’s a smaller guy who succeeds based on his smarts and work ethic rather than overwhelming talent. London has been an NHL player factory over the years, so his decision to sign with the Senators and go to the CHL could be beneficial down the road.

- Silver Seven had a great profile on Novak late last year, discussing many of the reasons that make him an exciting prospect. Still, I’m always wary of players who rely on their size at the junior/college/university level to drive success. It’s easy to do when you’re the biggest guy around, but at the NHL level there is almost always a bigger fish, and the smaller fish are even more talented.

- I haven’t seen or read enough on Crookshank to have any sort of opinion on him; I’ll refrain from comment on that basis

- Pinto’s run at the World Juniors with the American team should have lots of Senators fans excited. While drawing conclusions based on that tournament is foolish, it did prove that he can be an impact player in the right situation. In addition, playing at North Dakota with other Sens prospects will only help his cause moving forward. If he shows that he can play effectively with other future Senators, the transition to the pro game will be even easier for him.

Rob asks: How important is a player’s +/- anymore? What good is Brent Burns -19? I know he is a Norris Trophy winner and plays against other teams best, but the game is still about out scoring your apposition. Score all you want, but if you let in a ton, your not helping your team. +/- gets knocked down as an individual stat because it is shared responsibility stat. But how impressive is JGP's + 14 when the team is -33. Hainsey, Demelo and Borowiecki are all plus players. Might it benefit the team to reduce Chabot's ice time and his (team leading) -19. Does it make sense when constructing a budget team or even just working within the salary cap to build a team that can hold their own on the ice, even if it is not flashy? I'd be very happy cheering for a team of Nick Boninos, Ryan Graves, Jacob Slavins, Ian Coles, Radko Gudas, Chandler Stephensons, Ondrej Palats, Valeri Nichushkins and Teuvo Teravainens. Despite the talent of Andreas Athanasiou, James Neal, Phil Kessel, Brent Burns, Kaapo Kakko, Tomas Hertl, Leon Draisaitl, Alex Ovechkin and Taylor Hall, their collective +/- would make be reluctant to put them on the ice.

It’s not. Don’t look at it. It can provide a fun anecdote or two at the extreme ends, but evaluating play based on when goalies are able to make a save or you get a bounce at the other end doesn’t make sense. There's a lot more happening on the ice.

Bob asks: In how many years can we realistically hope to have a team that can compete for the Stanley Cup?

A lot depends on the draft lottery – i.e. a player like Lafreniere accelerates things – but I see the competitive window really opening in three or four years.

JP asks: Hey, with the trade deadline fast approaching.. I’m just wondering if there has been anymore chatter or news regarding JG Pageau and Sens, either signing him or most likely going else where? Thank you very much!

Bruce Garrioch mentioned on the broadcast earlier this month that he thinks the team is going to take a serious run at re-signing Pageau, but other than that things have been pretty quiet.

Joe A asks: Do you think the Sens get a new arena with the hiring of Jim Little?

I don’t think the hiring really moves the needle on that front.

Joe A asks: Are the Senators getting new jerseys and a new logo?

Chris Creamer of SportsLogos.net reported back in 2018 that a change wouldn’t be happening until 2021 at the earliest. A return to the 2D logo would be nice.

Senators6 asks: How fast can we bring up Shane Pinto, JBD, and Thomson?

Neither Pinto nor JBD is signed to a contract at this stage, so they aren’t being called up any time soon. Assuming Thomson returns to North America after this year, I could see him getting called up at some point next year from Belleville for a taste of NHL action.

Danial asks: With both the Sens' and the Sharks' 1sts, what number do you think we'll end up drafting at for both picks and who do you think the Sens should take? Obviously there's no knowing with the lottery, but assuming we don't win it.

I’ll say 3rd overall and 8th overall. The Sharks should climb up the standings a bit once teams in front of them sell and get worse.

Tom asks: Can the Sens get anything for Boedker?

Doubtful.

Panzer_IVA asks: We haven’t heard from Melnyk in what feels like a long time. Not complaining here, but why is he taking a low-key approach this year?

The Senators have been in the news for all the wrong reasons over the last few years, but are finally receiving some good press about their rebuild, prospect development, and more. The Melnyk headlines distract from a lot of that good work. I imagine that he’s happy to stay quiet as long as things are moving in the right direction.

Peter asks: Who is the young goalie in the system most likely to become our starter down the road?

It’s hard to bet against Marcus Hogberg based on how he’s performed this season.

Steve asks: Which Senator prospect has taken the largest step forward, and which has taken the largest step back this season?

Jonathan Gruden becoming a point-per-game player in London this year after a middling college season last year has been a nice development. On the flip side, does Filip Chlapik still count as a prospect? It’s not that he’s taken a step back, per se, but rather that he just hasn’t taken the kind of stride forward that the organization likely wanted to see.

Scott asks: Assuming the Sens obtain a few more picks for this years draft by trading away some expiring contracts (Pageau, Nam, Ennis, Hainsey, Anderson) &/or centre depth (Tierney/Anisimov)- what are your thoughts on trading some quantity of picks for improved picks (ie. a 2nd & 3rd for a late 1st or something). At some point don't you run out of contracts and places for these players to develop? Also - do you think Sens would consider retaining money on players to get a better return?(Anderson, Anisimov in particular)

I don’t think it makes sense to do that in 99.99% of cases. The value of draft picks after midway through the first round really flattens out, which makes packaging late picks to move up a dangerous and often valueless idea. Later picks are like lottery numbers. The more you pick, the better your chance of finding success.

It would surprise me to see this team retain dollars.

John Knee asks: What are the Sens options when Bobby Ryan comes back?

Continue to support him as a person and player.

Shawn asks: Would it be safe to say forwards are the main area of need in this coming draft?

I’m a big proponent of always drafting the best player available regardless of position, but if all things are equal I would agree that forward (especially at the top end) is a more pressing area of concern.

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Well, that was a historically large edition of Mike’s Mailbag! Thanks to everyone who took the time to submit questions.

As always, thanks for reading.

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