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Here are five things to watch when the New Jersey Devils take on the New York Rangers:
1. Stop the bleeding
The Devils have defended poorly for a long, long, time. Somehow, someway, they reached a new low last time out against the Islanders. The latter would hardly be mistaken for an offensive powerhouse and yet they still mustered up 23(!) Grade A chances and 3.65 expected goals at 5v5 alone. Both were season highs against the Devils.
I know the Devils don’t have the best defense known to mankind but a performance like that – especially on home ice – is embarrassing even for them.
With Taylor Hall gone, and Jack Hughes/Jesper Bratt injured, the Devils will rarely be able to out-score their problems – even with Mackenzie Blackwood erasing a large chunk of them.
It’s imperative that they strap on the workboots and put forth a better effort tonight. No free passes in the neutral zone. No careless giveaways in the homeplate area. No easy BS.
If they respond and dial it in for one night against their biggest rivals, then what are we even doing here? There’s 40 games left. If this one can’t be taken seriously, there isn’t much justification for any of the rest.
2. Two line tango
Jesper Boqvist with Pavel Zacha: 80 minutes, 41.79 Corsi For%, 34.19 Expected Goals For%, -4 goal differential.
Miles Wood with Pavel Zacha: 88 minutes, 40.93 CF%, 41.35 xGF%, -4 goal differential.
There isn’t much data to work with as a trio but Zacha hasn’t enjoyed any kind of success with either guy by his side. It seems reasonable to assume he won’t with *both* of them. And this is the 3rd line.
I don’t need to dig up any numbers to tell you the 4th line probably isn’t going to accomplish much.
That means the ball is in the court of the top-6. If they can’t contribute, say, three goals, the Devils are likely heading for another loss. They have to do the heavy lifting.
3. An area of exploitation
One way the Devils could do some damage is on the power play. They’ve spent more time on the man advantage than anybody over the last 25 games. Put another way, they’ve drawn plenty of penalties. That’s good!
It just so happens that the Rangers have spent more time killing penalties than anybody during that same span. If we include the full season, only the Caps and Sharks have been shorthanded longer.
Simply put, the Rangers have struggled with discipline all year. They’re not exactly great at killing penalties off, either, as they rank 31st in attempts and expected goals against per 60 minutes on the kill.
The Devils have to take advantage.
4. A glimpse of the future
Mackenzie Blackwood has been one of the best goalies in the league over the last ~6 weeks. No, that's not a hot take. It is the truth.
Blackwood owns a .939 save percentage (4/33) and has saved 7.55 goals above average (1/33) at 5v5 since December 1st. *Nobody* has faced more expected goals in that time.
I'm not arguing Blackwood is already an elite goaltender, only pointing out that he's making great strides and has played like one for a little bit now. Win or lose, the Devils have generally been able to bank on a strong performance from him.
At the other end of the rink tonight will be top prospect Igor Shesterkin. He has posted absolutely ludicrous numbers everywhere he has played for years now. The 24-year-old recently showed flashes while beating a fantastic Colorado team in his first career NHL start.
This has the makings of a fun battle, one we'll be seeing a ton of in the coming years.
5. Crazy but true
That wild Blake Coleman stat I shared the other day? It’s even wilder now. John Tavares, Patrick Kane, and Max Pacioretty are the only players in the NHL with more scoring chances (5v5) over the last 15 games. Yep, Coleman is tied for 4th with *rubs eyes* Nathan MacKinnon and Auston Matthews during that span. It's really encouraging that he's getting quality looks with such consistency. Now he just has to convert and turn it into a little more raw production.
Here are the projected lineups:
New Jersey
Wayne Simmonds - Nico Hischier - Kyle Palmieri
Blake Coleman - Travis Zajac - Nikita Gusev
Jesper Boqvist - Pavel Zacha - Miles Wood
Kevin Rooney - Ben Street - John Hayden
Andy Greene - P.K. Subban
Sami Vatanen - Damon Severson
Will Butcher - Mirco Mueller
Mackenzie Blackwood
New York
Chris Kreider - Mika Zibanejad - Pavel Buchnevich
Artemi Panarin - Ryan Strome - Jesper Fast
Brett Howden - Filip Chytil - Kaapo Kakko
Steven Fogarty - Greg McKegg - Brendan Smith
Brady Skjei - Jacob Trouba
Marc Staal - Anthony DeAngelo
Ryan Lindgren - Adam Fox
Igor Shesterkin
Puck drop is just after 7:00 p.m. eastern on MSG and MSG+.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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