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Why Are NHL Teams So Dumb About Their Rosters?

January 7, 2020, 11:05 AM ET [91 Comments]
James Tanner
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The NHL is a weird league because of the outsized impact one player has on the game - the goalie.

There are 19 players dressed on a given night, but one of them is the difference maker. What makes goalies unique among other such positions in sports - like a pitcher or a quarterback - is their relative unpredictability.

It would seem that very few goalies are able to predictably perform each year at the top of their level.

For example, if we look at this year's save percentage leaders, few star goalies are represented.

If we sort NHL.com goalie stats by games played, you see a list of star players with good reputations as starting goalies, but only Hellbuyck, Andersen, Bishop and Binnington have save percentage above .915 while starting 30 games.

Bobrovsky, Rask, Price, Holtby, Gibson, Rinne, Lundvquist, Kuemper are all absent from the list. (Though obviously back up goalie strength, team defense, random luck etc. all play a part here).

This isn't meant to be scientific - save percentage isn't the best stat, and this is just a half season sample, but it does illustrate something I think we all know: goalie performance is a little bit unpredictable.

This is further seen in how a 3rd stringer like Binnington can win the Cup and become a star player overnight, or how the Vezina Trophy winners list is littered with one-time winners like Jim Carey.

It's kind of a good thing that goalies are unpredictable, or hockey would be a very boring game.

Connor McDavid is a rarity - one of a handful of generational players to ever play in the NHL. But, if you knew who the best goalie was going to be in a year, you'd prefer that goalie on your team to McDavid because he'd help you win more games.

But it's not completely random either. Jordan Binnington is a pretty rare event. And you can pretty much always count on roughly ten or so goalies any time year to year. (Andersen, Rask, Lundvquist, Bobrovsky etc.).

Furthermore, if you rank teams by 5v5 save percentage and by standings points percentage, 25 of 31 teams are within ten places in the standings of their save percentage rankings.

This information tells us that even though it might be hard to find a consistently reliable goalie, having one is of vital importance.

You might trade for a star goalie and see him not perform. Conversely, you might pull one off the scrap heap and turn him into a superstar. I think this makes teams gunshy about going hard after a starting goalie.

The existence of Darcy Kuempers and Devan Dubnyks makes it seem like this happens more frequently than it actually does. It rarely ever happens.

You can't rely on randomness to work in your favor, and so I think the best course of action is do what you can to find yourself a star goalie.



We know that hockey is a star driven game. The team with the best player is favored to beat a deeper team. (google strong link game for more information).

Therefore a team like the Oilers is borderline incompetent.

With two of the five best players in the NHL on one roster, they should be among the NHL's best teams. They happen to have two of the worst goalies in the NHL, however, which is completely killing them.

They rank 27th in the NHL in 5v5 save percentage. (naturalstattrick.com)

While there's unpredictability among goalies, they aren't completely unpredictable.

If you have a couple superstar players and no goalie, it seems pretty obvious where your priorities should lie.

You don't need to have built the Red Wings into a dynasty in a previous life to know that Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith are a garbage duo.

The fact that all you hear about the Oilers is how they need to hold onto picks, and to their prospects to eventually surround McDavid and Draisaitl with talent.

It's nonsense.

Take whatever you need to - RNH, Bear, Nurse, future draft picks etc - and trade for a goalie.

How is this a difficult concept? Six teams in the NHL are currently more than ten standings positions above their 5v5 save percentage ranking and guess what? The Oilers are not one of them!

John Gibson, Jan Halak, Antti Raanta, Devan Dubnyk, maybe Jonathan Quick are all options off the top of my head.

It`s just unbelievable that teams are so ignorant of the importance of goalies.

What is worse is how a team with the resources of the Oilers can't figure this out. Your draft picks and prospects are worthless. You will never build a team around McDavid and Draisaitl because you blew the opportunity, and if you spend the time needed to correct this, you'll have wasted their primes.

All the Oilers need to do is trade for a goalie. The rest of it takes care of itself.

The Ducks probably don't want to trade Gibson - he's 26 and locked into a beautiful contract forever - but you can try.

See if they'll take Bear, 2 firsts, and Puljujarvi. If they won't, see if they'll take Draisaitl.

McDavid and a #1 goalie is all you really need anyways. If that's too ballsy, take the first package around the league and see what goalie you can get.

I 100% guarantee it would make their team better.
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