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Is it time to start worrying about Colin White? |
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It’s widely known that the Ottawa Senators aren’t a team that has oodles of cash to throw at restricted or unrestricted free agents. That’s what made the team’s commitments to Thomas Chabot and Colin White so symbolically significant. However, a cash-strapped team like the Senators needs to get big commitments like that right. Thankfully, the early returns on the Chabot pact suggest they did in that instance; in White’s case, however, there are some people who are already starting to sound alarms.
The National Hockey League’s contract negotiation landscape has seen a big shift in recent years, with young players coming off a hot season or two being signed to mammoth deals as a way to keep high-level production cost controlled for years to come. So, it comes as no surprise that the Senators were quick to jump on negotiating a new deal for White in August after his 41-point season last year. The team was simply banking on the future potential of their 2015 first-round pick, having been given enough reason for optimism based on that 2018-19 campaign.
Unfortunately, though, the early returns on that extension here in 2019-20 have been woefully underwhelming. White has tallied just two goals and seven points in 24 appearances this year, struggling with consistency in the offensive zone from day one. It’s those frighteningly low totals that have many within the fan base worried that White may not live up to the deal he signed in August. However, a quick look at some of the underlying numbers suggests that those doubts may be unfounded. Consider the following:
So, if White’s numbers relative to his teammates are decently solid as suggested above, why isn’t he producing like a J-G Pageau, or an Anthony Duclair, or even a Tyler Ennis? A lot of it comes down to a simple thing called luck.
White’s on-ice shooting percentage at five-on-five this year, as per Natural Stat Trick, is only 6.21%, compared to 8.69% last year. Among Senators who have played at least 250 five-on-five minutes, his current-year mark ranks dead last on the team; the next lowest, belonging to Erik Brannstrom, is 7.26%. Contrast that with a player like Pageau, whose on-ice, five-on-five conversion rate currently sits at 10.31%, and it becomes a little bit easier to see why White’s goal and assist numbers appear so low.
In summary, the title of the blog reads as follows: Is it time to start worrying about Colin White? From this blogger’s vantage point, the answer is 'no'. While it would be nice to see bigger numbers next to his name on the stats page, White is already doing a lot of the things that *should* turn into tangible production with a change in luck. Here's hoping that change comes around sooner rather than later.
As always, thanks for reading.
Ottawa Senators Blogger • 
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