Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell
Here are five things to watch when the New Jersey Devils take on the Dallas Stars:
1. A rejuvenated offense
Alain Nasreddine said he wanted the Devils to play with more pace and an offensive mindset. Three games is three games but so far they’ve done that.
The Devils are averaging 62.70 shot attempts and 29.26 scoring chances per 60 minutes (5v5) with Nasreddine running the ship.
I realize this is a very small sample size but this same Devils roster averaged 51.12 attempts and 22.55 chances per 60 under John Hynes. Those are drastic differences.
They’re clearly playing some of their better offensive hockey of the season and I look for that to continue tonight.
The Stars rank 27th in high-danger chances against 26th in expected goals against per 60 over the last 10 games, and they just replaced their coach this morning.
2. Discipline is key
It feels like every night the Devils take multiple unnecessary penalties, often times from the same cast of characters (Miles Wood, Blake Coleman, etc.). If they do that again, they’re likely going to pay for it.
Simply put, Dallas’ power play is fantastic. Only the Edmonton Oilers – headed by a group featuring Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Oscar Klefbom – generate more scoring chances per minute than the Stars.
Considering the high-end talent the Stars have, and how inconsistent the Devils’ goaltending can be, parading to the box and bleeding chances sure seems like a recipe for disaster.
3. Playing favorites
Perhaps no player has benefited more from the coaching change than Damon Severson. He leads the Devils in 5v5 ice and is averaging 18:19 in that game state, up from 16:50 under John Hynes.
Severson has rewarded Nasreddine’s early faith in him, garnering fantastic results across the board. With Severson on the ice (5v5), the Devils have controlled 55% of the attempts, 58% of the scoring chances, and out-scored their opponents 5-3. He has two primary assists as well.
Every player gets a clean slate when a new coach takes over. So far Severson is making the most of it, making him an early favorite to become one of Nasreddine’s, well, favorites.
4. Denis the menace
Only 17 forwards (200+ minutes) are averaging more than 17 shot attempts per 60 minutes. Among them, 11 generate 10+ chances to go along with it: Brendan Gallagher, Jakub Vrana, Brady Tkachuk, Alex Ovechkin, David Pastrnak, Jeff Skinner, Joel Armia, Nathan MacKinnon, Filip Forsberg, Auston Matthews, and, yes, Denis Gurianov.
While Gurianov’s usage has been inconsistent – sometimes he’s in the top-6, sometimes he’s on the 4th line – his ability to create scoring opportunities hasn’t. Don’t be surprised if he shows some flashes tonight, especially if he mostly squares up against the 4th line.
5. Another big goaltending edge
Neither the Devils or Stars have defended well of late, meaning both teams will probably get their fair share of chances tonight. That plays into the hands of the Stars because they, uh, have a goaltender much more likely to stop them.
To date, 23 goaltenders have spent at least 1,000 minutes manning the crease. Ben Bishop ranks 3rd in save percentage (.932), high-danger save percentage (.864), and Goals Saved Above Average (+13.73).
Blackwood, meanwhile, sits 18th in SV% (.899), 20th in HD SV% (.794), and 18th in GSAA (-6.00).
If the chance totals are similar, Bishop is the better bet to come up with an extra save or two and be the difference.
Here are the projected lineups:
New Jersey
Taylor Hall - Jack Hughes - Kyle Palmieri
Blake Coleman - Travis Zajac - Nikita Gusev
Jesper Boqvist - Pavel Zacha - Jesper Bratt
Miles Wood - Kevin Rooney - Wayne Simmonds
Andy Greene - P.K. Subban
Sami Vatanen - Damon Severson
Will Butcher - Mirco Mueller
Mackenzie Blackwood
Dallas
Jamie Benn - Mattias Janmark - Tyler Seguin
Alex Radulov - Roope Hintz - Joe Pavelski
Andrew Cogliano - Radek Faksa - Blake Comeau
Denis Gurianov - Jason Dickinson - Corey Perry
Esa Lindell - John Klingberg
Jamie Oleksiak - Miro Heiskanen
Andrej Sekera - Roman Polak
Ben Bishop
Puck drop is just after 8:30 p.m. eastern on MSG+ and FS-MW.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
Recent Posts
Report: Miles Wood is on the trade block
Turning the page
My choices for the Devils’ three stars of the month in November
New Jersey Devils Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»