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Can the Bolts Beat the Sharks and Avoid Crisis? |
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Creating turnovers from the forecheck? The Lightning are making progress in that facet. Generating offense off the rush? The last two games have showcased how lethal the Lightning are when their forwards and defensemen are in transition. Unfortunately, though, if defensive coverage is absent and an opponent is proffered yawning gaps, as was the case against the Minnesota Wild on Thursday night, all of the good stuff crumbles. It was a bit like a piece of delicious pie with a bad aftertaste last night, and in the end, the negatives outweighed the positives.
What does a crisis look like? Well, the Lightning might be facing one as the Eastern Conference postseason outlook becomes increasingly muddled. It’s an extremely competitive conference, and unlike in the Western Conference, mediocrity isn’t accepted. On Saturday, the Lightning face the San Jose Sharks, who have been streaky. The Sharks ripped off nine wins in eleven games right before Thanksgiving, but they have played .500 hockey post-turkey heading into tomorrow night. Overall, the Sharks have underperformed expectations and their problems start with their defense.
If goaltender Martin Jones gets the start tomorrow, the Lightning should do a happy dance because he has been abjectly awful this season. Jones was last seen getting pulled from the game against the Washington Capitals on Tuesday, and on Thursday Aaron Dell got the start against Carolina. Considering Jones has already played 23 games this season and Dell hasn't started consecutive games this season, there is every reason to expect Jones will be between the pipes on Saturday. If Jones gets the nod, the Lightning should blitz him with shots because every puck on net has the potential to slip through.
Jones is last in the NHL in Goals Saved Above Average at 5v5. Of goaltenders who have more than seven starts, he has the worst 5v5 save percentage in the NHL at .876. When the Lightning manufacture a high-danger chance, they will be facing down the second worst goaltender in the NHL in terms of high-danger chances goals allowed. In fairness to Jones, the Sharks’ defense has been Swiss cheese, ranking 27th in the NHL in expected goals against per 60 minutes and high-danger chances against per hour (5-on-5). It is poor defense exacerbated by pitiful goaltending.
Unexpectedly, opponents have been burying goals against the Bolts as well. The Lightning rank 26th in goals against, which is shocking considering they have Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy as their goaltender. But before pointing fingers at the Tampa Bay defense for negligence and lack of accountability, it is worth examining the underlying metrics at even strength. The Lightning rank 9th in expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5v5 (xGA/60) and are 6th in high-danger chances against per hour. That is impressive! Oddly enough, those defensive metrics best the Bolts’ offensive numbers in the same categories. In expected goals for per 60 minutes, the Lightning are tied for 12th and in high-danger chances for per hour they are 15th.
What gives? The simple answer is special teams. The Lightning rank 20th in the NHL in penalty kill, and their power play is ranked 3rd. The Lightning are still penalty-committing gangbusters, committing over 3.5 minor penalties per game, which mirrors last season. However, last season, they ranked 1st on the penalty kill. So, they might not be able to get their minor penalty count down to 2.5 per game, which is where the league’s lowest teams reside, but if the Lightning can commit one less penalty every odd game it would make a difference.
Sure, the Lightning get plagued with soft penalty calls, but there is a surfeit of avoidable penalties. At 5v5, the Lightning are a very good team, ranking 7th in the NHL in high-danger chances percentage. They have an excellent power play. If Tampa Bay can stay out of the penalty box, this could make the difference against the Sharks and in future contests.
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • 
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