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Here are five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Ottawa Senators:
1. Looking for a spark
The Flames won 11 times in 27 tries with Bill Peters at the helm and routinely looked lifeless for long stretches of play. While they were far from perfect last time out, they still managed to squeeze out a win. With some confidence back in the room, and a fresh voice officially at the helm, I’m interested to see how the team responds. I think there could be a real spark under Geoff Ward, who seems to be very well liked by the players. At home to the 28th seed in a back-to-back situation, the Flames are certainly in a good spot to put their best foot forward.
2. Ending a dry spell
Calgary’s power play is not exactly firing on all cylinders right now. They’re not firing on *any* cylinders, actually. The Flames have converted on just one man advantage over the last seven games and given a goal back in the meantime. That’s no coincidence as only three teams have averaged fewer chances per minute during that time. No chances = no goals. Luckily, a date with the Senators might be just what the doctor ordered.
The Senators have struggled on the PK all season long; at least in terms of limiting shots and chances (their goaltenders have done a good job of bailing the team out). They rank 30th in Corsi Against/60 and 23rd when it comes to suppressing scoring chances. With any luck, the Flames should be able to create quality and quantity.
3. Battle of the Tkachuks
The Flames have slumped offensively all season long and yet Matthew Tkachuk has still find a way to create on a consistent basis. He leads the team in points, primary points, shots on goal, scoring chances, expected goals, and pretty much any other offensive statistic you can think of.
While Brady’s raw totals don’t quite match up, it’s not for a lack of trying. Brady leads the Senators in shots by 22, scoring chances by 34(!) and ranks 1st in the entire league in terms of chance efficiency. Be it 5v5, or across all game states, nobody generates more per minute than Brady. Nobody.
Both players are fantastic facilitators and a complete pain in the ass to play against. They’re also as competitive as anyone you’ll see. Though Flames vs Senators is what’s most important, you can bet the Tkachuks will be in the middle of everything and looking to one-up each other.
4. Paint over point
Calgary's shot rates are actually pretty similar to what they were a year ago. Where there’s been a drop is shot quality. The Flames are averaging 9.16 Grade A chances per 60 (26th), compared to 11.45 (9th) a season ago. There’s been a similar dip when looking at Grade B chances. I think part of this is due to a lack of bite off the rush. The Flames are also a little too willing to settle for point shots. I’m really interested to see if Ward has players activating more often and pushing to get into high-danger areas, or if he’ll be content running as many low-to-high plays as they did under Peters. We’ll start to figure that out today.
5. Attacking on the PK
The Flames have a strong penalty killing unit that, when tempted, has no problems pushing the envelope to try and create a chance. They could get a few tonight. Only Boston allows more attempts/60 while on the man advantage, and just three sides are giving up chances at a higher rate. Ottawa’s PP is leaky and, when possible, Calgary should be looking to exploit that. With the way their offense is struggling to score, they need to capitalize on any edge they have.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Andrew Mangiapane
Milan Lucic - Derek Ryan - Dillon Dube
Tobias Rieder - Mark Jankowski - Michael Frolik
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Rasmus Andersson
Oliver Kylington - Michael Stone
Cam Talbot**
**was supposed to start vs Buffalo so good chance he gets the nod today
Ottawa (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Nick Paul - J.G. Pageau - Colin White
Brady Tkachuk - Logan Brown - Anthony Duclair
Vladislav Namestnikov - Artem Anisimov - Connor Brown
Filip Chlapik - Chris Tierney - J.C. Beaudin
Thomas Chabot - Ron Hainsey
Mark Borowiecki - Nikita Zaitsev
Erik Brannstrom - Dylan DeMelo
Marcus Hogberg**
**Craig Anderson is not expected to be available and Anders Nilsson started last night
Puck drop is just after 7:00 p.m. Eastern and can be seen on SN360, SNW, City TV and TVA S.
Numbers via naturalstattrick.com
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