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Metro Division Q1 Recap: The Best Division in Hockey? |
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Is the Metro the BEST division in hockey?!? There is certainly a case to be made. First, let’s take a look at each team’s performance in division thus far:
Here are the Current Metro Standings through Q1 (As of 11/21):
1. Washington Capitals – 36 Points – 24 GP
2. New York Islanders – 31 Points – 19 GP
3. Carolina Hurricanes – 27 Points – 21 GP
4. Pittsburgh Penguins – 25 Points -21 GP
5. Philadelphia Flyers – 24 Points – 21 GP
6. Columbus Blue Jackets – 20 Points -20 GP
7. New York Rangers – 18 Points – 18 GP
8. New Jersey Devils – 18 Points – 20 GP
1. Washington Capitals
PLUS: The Capitals have one of the more balanced special teams in the league. They currently sit #5 on the Power Play and #7 on the Penalty Kill. They are #1 in the league in Goal Differential at +20. They are #1 in the league with 3.74 Goals For/Game. They have the league’s best road record at 10-2-1. No other team has more than 7 wins on the road. The Capitals have scored with the extra man at 6 on 5 three separate times this season. They converted 5 out 6 points in those games.
MINUS: Goaltending. Braden Holtby started the season very poorly. Overall, he sits 34th the league in SV% at .906 and a GAA of 2.91/game. Goalie of the future Ilya Samsonov has been solid in relief posting a .912 SV% and 2.65 GAA. Holtby seems to have found his groove lately though. In the month of November, he is #8 in the league with a .935 SV% and #6 with 1.95 GAA. He is also 6-1-0 in the month and 10-1-1 in his last 12. Holtby is an UFA and likely wont be resigned by the Caps and furthermore I suspect he will get scooped up by Seattle in the Expansion draft. More on that later.
2. New York Islanders
PLUS: They are the hottest team in the league right now. They are on a 15-game point streak and have earned 29 out of 30 possible points during the stretch. The Islanders rank #4 in the league in Goals Against/Game at 2.42. Just like last year, goaltending has been top-notch. Both Varlamov and Griess are putting up elite numbers. Griess leads the league with .938 SV% and its #2 in GAA at 1.98. He is in a contract year and likely won’t get resigned with elite goalie prospect, Sorokin on deck for next season. Sorokin and Varlamov are both Russian and have the same agent. Why not have Varly mentor him? The Islanders’ defensive and goaltending trends/numbers shouldn’t surprise to anyone familiar with the Barry Trotz system. He has a knack for defense and for every team he has coached he has had a Vezina winner/finalist (Renne, Holtby, Lehner). Projecting at 134 points, they are currently on pace for the Presidents Trophy.
MINUS: Not much to say here cause they are doing pretty much everything right. The New York Islanders may have the 10th ranked Power Play in the league but they are league worst with only 37 opportunities. They simple do not draw a lot of penalties. They also really haven’t beat very many elite teams consistently. When they have played a top tier team, they have typically lost (WSH, EDM, CAR). In my opinion, they are beating up on mediocre or injured teams for the most part.
3. Carolina Hurricanes
PLUS: The team started the season out on a five-game win streak which was cute. The team is very balanced and getting production from both the offense and defense. As of 11/21, the top point scorers are Andrei Svechnikov and Dougie Hamilton at 23 points each in 21 games. Svechnikov is certainly having a breakout sophomore campaign. He seems to have finally woke up from that Ovi KO. He had that awesome lacrosse style goal and also leads the team with four power play goals. All jokes aside, this dude is a freakin stud and the future continues to stay bright in Carolina with him and Aho in the fold. Dougie Hamilton is having a Norris Worthy campaign. His 23 points put him 2nd in points for all NHL Defenseman behind John Carlson, American Hero (36).
MINUS: Carolina has failed to convert points against teams they are typically favored to beat. Notable losses include CBJ (twice), NJD, NYR, OTT. Their record in the Metro is 2-4-1. That simply is not good enough for a team that was in the ECF last year. They are currently on a four-game win streak but are also allowing 3.44 GA/Game in the month of November. Lets see if they can get back on track in winning division games against the Flyers who are currently on a four-game skid.
4. Pittsburgh Penguins
PLUS: The Penguins have the third most Man-Games lost in the NHL behind EDM and SJS. They have managed to stay competitive and win some huge games through the first quarter of the season. According to mangameslost.com, they lead the league in “Points in standings lost due to injured players” at 5.34 points They have the #2 ranked PK in the league at 89.8% and are 21st on the PP at 16.9%. They also scored seven goals on four separate occasions in October. The Brandon Tanev deal actually looks okay right now. He is averaging .52 points per game. In his previous three season he has slowly progressed from .078 to .213 to .360 and now .52 points per game. Personally, at 3.5mil/year and considering all the injuries, I am expecting more but he could be playing worse.
MINUS: Obviously Injuries. Their PP is struggling at 16.9% and they even had a stretch where they went 0-26 stretch at one point. Just as they were starting to get healthy, Crosby got hurt and I believe he is out till Christmas or something. This team will still make the playoffs.
5. Philadelphia Flyers
PLUS: Goaltending. It has been an up and down season for the Flyers. October was rough has both goaltenders were sub .900 SV%. In November they seemed to have gotten back on track as both Carter Hart and Brian Elliot have been in the .925+ SV% range. Carter Hart has been elite. Travis Konecny leads the team with 20 points and Oscar Lindblom as been a fantastic surprise with 16 points. Both guys are playing above their contract values. Lindblom is on contact for $925,000, that’s it!
MINUS: Inconsistency. The Flyers started the season 2-3-1 then went on an 8-2-2 stretch and things seemed to be looking up. Well not so fast, they have lost four straight games. Their top stars like are not producing like they should be. I believe Giroux and Voracek will figure it out as they always do. Kevin Hayes and his egregious 7.14 mil/year contract have been a massive letdown. He has 4 goals and 4 assists in 21 games this season. He has 1 assist in his last 11 games. James Van Riemsdyk has an equally terrible contact at 7mil/ year and only has 9 points. WOOF!
6. Columbus Blue Jackets
PLUS: Marquee Wins! The Blue Jackets have quietly defeated both elite teams and teams who were streaking. They beat Buffalo in the midst of Buffalo’s 8-1-1 start to the season. They have defeated Carolina both times they met, one of which to end their 5-0-0 start to the season. They took 3 out of 4 points against the St. Louis blues who currently sit in the top three of NHL Power rankings. They defeated the Coyotes when they were on a 9-3-1 roll. They lost in OT to debatably the best team in the league in the NYI. They took 3 out of 4 points to MTL so far. For a team that was supposed to suck this year, not bad at all. Pierre Luc-Dubois who was drafted third behind Auston Matthews and Patrick Laine seems to be thriving as the team’s star. He leads the team with 15 points and does not get enough credit for how skilled he is IMO. Gustav Nyquist was brought in to contribute offensively and he is fulfilling his obligations. He is second on the team with 12.
MINUS: Goaltending has been a nightmare and some typical elite point producers are behind their usual pace. Cam Atkinson only has three goals on the season after scoring 41 the year before. Since returning from injury, Josh Anderson only has two points in 14 games. For reference, he scored 47 points in 82 games last season. Korpisalo is 43rd in the league with a .900 SV%. Elvis Merzlikins is 47th, posting a .894 SV%. Elvis has looked stronger as of late so I guess there is some room for optimism. If it makes you Jackets fans feel any better, Bob is 53rd in the league at .887. Just a slight observation here but Korpisalo looks like complete nut-case out there. On separate occasions vs Philadelphia and Colorado, he was seen slamming his stick into the ground and net and overall just throwing a huge tantrum. He clearly cannot keep his composure out there when things go South. Columbus also sits T28th in the league with 2.5 goals/game. The only team worse than them is Detroit. You simply are not going to win many games when your goalies are below average and your team cant score goals.
7. New York Rangers
PLUS: After some early season struggles, 2ND overall pick Kaapo Kakko seems to be really finding his groove. He has eight points in his last eight games and boy does he look the part! With 10 points, that ranks him #7 in the league among active rookies. He is tied for 2nd amongst rookies with 6 goals on four games less played than anyone else. The team itself is scoring 3.37 goals/game which puts them at #8 in the league. They have the 10th ranked Power play at 22.7%. They are #4 in the league shooting % at 5on5 (9.8%). Artemi Panarin is playing at an elite level and has 25 points in 19 games. He is on pace for 107 points. He scored 87 points last year for Columbus. Ryan Strome is playing out of his mind as well. The Rangers swapped Ryan Spooner for him last year and it now looks like a landslide trade win for the NYR. Strome has 19 points in 19 games filling in for the injured Zibanejad. He only costs 3.1mil/year and is a RFA at the end of the season but I think he has found a home in NY and will resign.
MINUS: The Rangers may be #8 with 3.37 goals/game but they are also giving up the 6th most goals/per at 3.47. The Rangers also have the 28th ranked PK at 72.6%. They allow the second most shots/game at 35.8. These numbers tell me the Rangers are playing games like track meets and constantly going up and down the ice trading scoring chances. I believe this team is right around where it should be considering the games played. They definitely have a shot at the wild card once they get fully healthy.
8. New Jersey Devils
PLUS: Not much positive going on here. Taylor Hall leads the team with 17 points in 20 games. Palmieri had a hat trick one game. Hughes had a three-point game against stingy Arizona. He has 10 points on the season. They have led in lots of games which is great but they have practically let every lead slip away. Mackenzie Blackwood is 100% the guy now after the Devils waived Corey Schneider. Blackwood leads all rookie goalies with seven wins, and one shutout. He is third among nine active rookie netminders with 2.95 GAA.
MINUS: Where to start? Foreshadowing the season ahead, The Devils blew a four-goal lead against the Jets in the season opener. They were up 4-1 in the third period of that game. They gave up another three-goal lead to the Florida Panthers two weeks later. They blew a two-goal third period lead to the struggling TBL. They most recently blew a third period lead to the Ottawa Senators. They have the 27th ranked PP and 25th ranked PK. They give up the third most goal/game and score the fourth least goals/game. 7 out of their first 10 games were at home and they went 2-5-3.
So where does this put the Metro?
Here are some cross divisional stats:
Goal For/Game (Average):
#1 Atlantic Division – 3.14 GF/Game
#2 Metro Division – 3.11 GF/Game
#3 Central Division – 3.04 GF/Game
#4 Pacific Division – 2.84 GF/Game
Goals Against/Game (Average)
#1 Central Division – 2.91 GA/Game
#2 Pacific Division – 2.97 GA/Game
#3 Metro Division – 3.00 GA/Game
#4 Atlantic – 3.20 GA/Game
Final Projected Points (Based Off Points/Game Trend):
Central Division:
1. Blues – 31 Points in 22 Games. Projecting 115 Points
2. Avalanche – 28 Points in 21 games = 1.33 Points/Game. Projecting 109 Points
3. Jets – 27 Points in 22 Games = 1.23 Points/Game. Projecting 101 Points
4. Stars – 26 Points in 22 Games = 1.18 Points/Game. Projecting 97 Points
5. Blackhawks – 22 Points in 21 Games = 1.047 Points/Game. Projecting 85 Points
6. Predators – 21 Points in 20 Games = 1.05 Points/Game. Projecting 86 Points
7. Wild - – 27 Points in 22 Games = 0.85 Points/Game. Projecting 70 Points
Average Projection: 95.71 Points
Pacific Division:
1. Oilers – 31 Points in 23 Games = 1.35 Points/Game. Projecting 110 Points
2. Coyotes – 28 Points in 22 Games = 1.27 Points/Game. Projecting 104 Points
3. Golden Knights – 25 Points in 23 Games = 1.086 Points/Game. Projecting 89 Points
4. Canucks – 24 Points in 22 Games = 1.09 Points/Game. Projecting 89 Points
5. Flames – 23 Points in 24 Games = 0.958 Points/Game. Projecting 76 Points
6. Ducks – 22 Points in 22 Games = 1.00 Points/Game. Projecting 82 Points
7. Sharks – 21 Points in 22 Games = 0.954 Points/Game. Projecting 78 Points
8. Kings – 17 Points in 21 Games = 0.809 Points/Game. Projecting 66 Points
Average Projection: 86.75 Points
Atlantic Division
1. Bruins – 31 Points in 21 Games = 1.476 Points/Game. Projecting 121 Points
2. Panthers – 27 Points in 21 Games = 1.285 Points/Game. Projecting 105 Points
3. Canadiens– 27 Points in 22 Games = 1.227 Points/Game. Projecting 101 Points
4. Sabres – 23 Points in 21 Games = 1.095 Points/Game. Projecting 90 Points
5. Maple Leafs – 22 Points in 23 Games = 0.956 Points/Game. Projecting 78 Points
6. Senators – 21 Points in 22 Games = 0.954 Points/Game. Projecting 78 Points
7. Lightning – 20 Points in 18 Games = 1.11 Points/Game. Projecting 91 Points
8. Red Wings – 17 Points in 23 Games = 0.739 Points/Game. Projecting 61 Points
Average Projection: 90.62 Points
Metro Division
1. Capitals – 36 Points in 24 Games = 1.5 Points/Game. Projecting 123 Points
2. Islanders – 31 Points in 19 Games = 1.631 Points/Game. Projecting 134 Points
3. Hurricanes – 27 Points in 21 Games = 1.285 Points/Game. Projecting 105 Points
4. Penguins – 25 Points in 21 Games = 1.19 Points/Game. Projecting 98 Points
5. Flyers – 24 Points in 21 Games = 1.142 Points/Game. Projecting 94 Points
6. Rangers – 20 Points in 19 Games = 1.052 Points/Game. Projecting 86 Points
7. Blue Jackets – 20 Points in 20 Games = 1.00 Points/Game. Projecting 82 Points
8. Devils – 18 Points in 20 Games = 0.900 Points/Game. Projecting 74 Points
Average Projection: 99.5 Points
Final Average Point Projection Projections Rankings:
1.Metro - 99.5 Points
2. Central - 95.71 Points
3. Atlantic - 90.62 Points
4. Pacific - 86.75 Points
The Metro is currently projecting the highest average point total. This number doesn’t factor in strength of schedule or remaining point opportunities against intra-divisional opponents. The Metro is #2 in Goals For/Game. Taking into consideration the top-heavy contenders in the Metro, I do not think it is a close argument. The Metro has the best offensive and the best defensive team in hockey. They have the best two teams in the league in the Caps in the Islanders. The Penguins are running at about 50% capacity and they are still winning games. The Hurricanes made it to the ECF last year and have picked up right where they left off. Teams like NYR and Philly will be bubble teams. I would not be surprised if the two Wild Card teams end up being from the Metro. Let’s face it, the Metro is the toughest division. They have won the Stanley Cup 3 out of 4 years. It sure looks like Lord Stanley could return to the Metro once again.
Thanks for reading
By Brian S.
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