Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell
Here are five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the St. Louis Blues:
1. Where offense goes to die
The Flames have struggled mightily to fill the net this season. The same can be said of the Blues, especially without their top sniper in Vladimir Tarasenko.
As such, it’s not exactly surprising the Flames sit dead last averaging just 1.92 goals/60 at 5v5. The Blues haven’t fared much better, ranking 29th with 2.11 goals/60.
At the core of the issue, perhaps, is generating high-danger chances. Both teams rank bottom-10 in Grade A looks per 60, be it over the last 10 games or the entire sample of games.
With each side struggling to generate real opportunities, or convert when they do arise, it’s probably fair to expect a low scoring game in this one.
2. A better start
One constant that certainly hasn’t helped Calgary in their pursuit of goals: falling behind early. They spot the opposition a couple goals much too often and that makes their life extremely difficult. I think it is a lot harder to score goals when opposing teams can sit around in structured formations and clog up the middle of the ice. It’s tough to beat NHL goaltenders from a distance, and it’s nearly impossible to generate a good volume of shots anywhere close to the net when teams are sitting on multi-goal leads. I think getting an early goal or two, and forcing the Blues to open up and take chances, would really help the offense get more chances.
3. An elite PK
If the Flames were hoping they’d be able to rely on the power play to get them out of this scoring rut, well, they’re probably going to be disappointed.
The Blues don’t take very many penalties. When they do, they’re excellent at killing ‘em off. They rank 1st in expected goals against/60, 2nd in chances against/60, and in the top half of the league in terms of goals against/60.
4. Will the defense hold up?
The good news is St. Louis sucks offensively. The bad news is it might not matter. We’re dealing with small samples here but Noah Hanifin and Michael Stone have a ~33 xGF% together at 5v5 and an Oliver Kylington - Brandon Davidson duo is not going to scare anyone. The Flames are essentially rolling with one quality pairing, which is scary regardless of the opponent. David Rittich will have to be on his game.
5. #Regression
Calgary’s top players have not produced at the level anyone expected. Part of that is because they just haven’t been as effective or sharp as normal. Part of that, though, is simply a lack of luck. Johnny Gaudreau is shooting ~7% below his career average. Sean Monahan is shooting 6.5% below his career average. Mikael Backlund is shooting 3.2% below his career average. The list goes on. Sooner or later you have to believe they will get a couple bounces and things will start to go. Let’s hope for sooner.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Mikael Backlund - Matthew Tkachuk
Andrew Mangiapane - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Milan Lucic - Derek Ryan - Dillon Dube
Zac Rinaldo - Mark Jankowski - Michael Frolik
Mark Giordano - Rasmus Andersson
Noah Hanifin - Michael Stone
Oliver Kylington - Brandon Davidson
David Rittich
St. Louis (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Jaden Schwartz - Brayden Schenn - Tyler Bozak
Ivan Barbashev - Ryan O’Reilly - David Perron
Zach Sanford - Robert Thomas - Oskar Sundqvist
Mackenzie MacEachern - Jacob de la Rose - Klim Kostin
Colton Parayko - Alex Pietrangelo
Jay Bouwmeester - Justin Faulk
Vince Dunn - Robert Bortuzzo
Jordan Binnington
Puck drop is just after 8:00 p.m. Eastern and can be seen on SNW and FS-MW.
Numbers via naturalstattrick.com
Recent posts:
Trading Johnny Gaudreau is crazy talk
From bad to worse
The Calgary Flames are getting impatient
On Mangiapane’s strong play, 5v5 offense, and Jankowski’s lack of luck
Calgary Flames Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»