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Surprisingly strong starts have the Edmonton Oilers and Arizona Coyotes neck-in-neck for top spot in the Pacific Division, with the likes of Vegas, Calgary, Vancouver and San Jose lagging behind.
Will one of the surprise teams sustain their success, or will a side with higher expectations be able to make up ground and win the Pacific?
We discuss!
Todd Cordell
Vegas was my pick to win the division prior to the year and, honestly, I don’t see much reason to change it.
While their record isn’t where anyone expected it to be, that’s not necessarily due to poor performance. The Golden Knights are controlling 54.05% of the scoring chances at 5v5, which is the 3rd best mark in the NHL. They’re consistently out-playing teams.
Due mostly to poor shooting luck, and goaltending when Marc-Andre Fleury is not in the net, 54% of the chances has converted into ~45% of the goals.
Though I do think they should target a more stable backup goaltender, I think they have what it takes to win the Pacific anyway.
Simply put, there is too much talent for such a strong chance differential not to show up on the scoreboard. When some of their shooters start converting at semi-normal rates, I expect the Golden Knights to take off.
Sean Maloughney
As fun as it has been to be able to write about a first place Division team, which is what the Edmonton Oilers have been since day 1 I don't see that lasting. The Oilers are proving they can be in playoff contention all season with the Hart worthy play of both Draisaitl and McDavid but the issues this team has (secondary scoring, bottom 6 scoring, and 2ndary scoring) are too big to keep them as a lead team all season.
The Division is ripe for another team to jump on and take over and I think it will be the Sharks that at the end of the day rise to the occasion. San Jose started the year abysmally, being outchanced and out-scored in almost every opportunity but the team has gained traction over the past month, including winning their last 6 games. If Jones can provide even average goaltending the rest of the way, I wouldn't be surprised to see them back in as the top team in the Pacific.
Michael Stuart
I'm still counting on the Vegas Golden Knights to right the ship and win the division. Their PDO is unsustainably low - so, when regression hits, things are almost guaranteed to improve.
While the Oilers have had a really nice start to the year, it's hard for me to imagine that both the McDavid/Draisaitl combination and the Smith/Koskinen tandem can continue to perform at such absurdly elite levels. Maybe one of the two duos makes it happen, but both? It's just hard for me to expect. I've lived in Edmonton for too long to have such high hopes. Combine that with the fact that the team is generating a sub-50% expected goal share at five-on-five per Natural Stat Trick, and I just don't see the Oilers holding on at the top of the Pacific.
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