The tank is very important.
The 2019-20 Ottawa Senators aren’t supposed to look this competitive. Nobody is suggesting that they’re particularly good, but more often than not they’ve been sticking around in games and giving themselves a chance to win. It’s an entertaining brand of hockey, built on a foundation of youthful exuberance. The "problem" for the Senators so far this year is that too many of those chances to win have turned into actual wins. The culprit? Anders Nilsson.
With the Senators taking to the ice for a rare Friday/Saturday split this weekend, the impact that Nilsson has on this team was on full display. He backstopped the team to an impressive victory over the Philadelphia Flyers on Friday night, with Craig Anderson stepping in and taking a loss on Saturday against the Buffalo Sabres. The contrast was stark; Nilsson posted a .967 save percentage against the Flyers, while Anderson earned a .903 save percentage against the Sabres. Goaltending was arguably the difference between winning one and winning both – or losing one and losing both, depending on your perspective.
The point illustrated by the weekend set of games is indicative of a broader story. Nilsson has been tremendous for a team that wasn’t supposed to have too many players worthy of superlative description. Consider the following: Per Natural Stat Trick, among the 37 goaltenders who have played at least 400 five-on-five minutes this year, Nilsson ranks fifth in goals saved above average per 60 minutes and sixth in save percentage. He’s playing in the position’s upper echelon right now, and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down.
What does all this mean for Nilsson? It means that he’s well on his way to turning the two-year, $5.2M contract he signed with the Senators this past summer into future NHL work. For a guy who looked like he might be on his way out of the league after a rough stint in Vancouver, it’s hard to imagine that he could have asked for much more.
What does all this mean for the Senators? It means that they don’t find themselves sitting in a distant 31st place in mid-November. Nilsson has given them the confidence and ability to go out and win any given hockey game. That, of course, comes with consequences. Most publicly available models predicted that the Senators would finish comfortably in last place, securing the best chance at landing either Alexis Lafreniere or Quinton Byfield. If Nilsson continues on his current pace, that once-thought-to-be-guarantee will most certainly be in a mild form of jeopardy.
Even so, there’s something to be said for staying moderately competitive in most games this year. Nilsson is providing young Senators skaters with a learning environment in which every shift matters, every play matters, and every chance matters. The game is on the line most of the time when Nilsson is in net. It’s true that an impact to draft lottery odds exists, but it’s also true that letting players develop in a situation where they aren’t being blown out every night has value. So, while he may be ruining the tank in at least a small sense, Anders Nilsson is likely still doing a lot of short and long-term good for the Ottawa Senators.
As always, thanks for reading.
Ottawa Senators Blogger • 
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