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Here are five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Washington Capitals:
1. A stiff test at 5v5
The Capitals have long been a team that played opponents ~even in terms of shots and chances at 5v5 but relied on superior shooting talent – and goaltending – to come out on top. They’ve had success, obviously, but if they could take that next step and control the run of play a little more, there’d be potential for even more dominance. The early returns suggest they may be ready to do just that. The Capitals have played 10 games to date. They rank 8th in Corsi For% and 5th in Expected Goals For%. If not for an unsustainably low .979 PDO, anchored by the 26th best save percentage (very poor for a Braden Holtby/Ilya Samsonov tandem), they’d be steamrolling teams at full-strength. The Flames are going to have their hands full in this one.
2. The return of Hathaway
Garnet Hathaway’s play was up and down during his time with the Flames. He was mostly good during the 2nd half last season, though, and he parlayed his improved play into a four-year, $6 million contract with the Capitals. It’s early, of course, but so far he is earning his keep. Offensively, he has played very well. He has already recorded four points at 5v5 and Alex Ovechkin is the only Capitals player with more scoring chances in that game state. Crazy, I know. Hathaway has brought his usual physicality while his on-ice numbers are also very strong (52.17 CF%, 56.55 xGF%). He’s playing great by any measurement and you can bet he’ll have a little extra tonight against his former team.
3. Target Evgeny Kuznetsov
Bill Peters should be going out of his way to get the top line out against Kuznetsov as often as possible. He’s a wizard with the puck but not exactly great without out. No Capitals forward has been on the ice for more shot attempts against per 60 minutes (63.82) and he’s at or near the bottom of the list in terms of suppressing expected goals and actual goals. I think he can definitely be exploited and he plays enough that it’s not hard to catch him out there. Get the big line out there against him and good things should happen.
4. An unstoppable force vs an immovable force
Okay, referring to Calgary’s offense as an unstoppable force might be a bit of an exaggeration but – but! – they do generate a lot. At 5v5, they currently sit 4th in attempts/60 and 11th in chances/60. They play pretty fast and are above average at creating shots and chances. The Capitals, meanwhile, are fantastic at suppressing them. Only five teams allow shot attempts and expected goals at a lesser rate than the Capitals.
In terms of general pace, the Flames are 8th in total attempts (for + against) per 60 while the Capitals are 20th. They play pretty contrasting styles so it’ll be interesting to see which team can force the other out of its comfort zone.
5. Point shots for everyone
98 defenders are averaging better than 10 shot attempts per 60. That equates to a little more than three per team. The Flames have five defenders in tonight’s projected lineup taking 10+ attempts per 60 minutes. They go low-to-high a lot and take a ton of shots from the blueline. I’d expect that to continue against a Capitals team that is stingy defensively and doesn’t give up much on the inside.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary Flames
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Austin Czarnik
Andrew Mangiapane - Derek Ryan - Tobias Rieder
Milan Lucic - Mark Jankowski - Michael Frolik
Mark Giordano - Rasmus Andersson
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
T.J. Brodie - Michael Stone
Cam Talbot
Washington Capitals
Alex Ovechkin - Nicklas Backstrom - T.J. Oshie
Carl Hagelin - Evgeny Kuznetsov - Tom Wilson
Jakub Vrana - Lars Eller - Garnet Hathaway
Brendan Leipsic - Nic Dowd - Chandler Stephenson
Jonas Siegenthaler - John Carlson
Dmitri Orlov - Nick Jensen
Michal Kempny - Radko Gudas
Braden Holtby/Ilya Samsonov
Puck drop is just after 9:00 p.m. Eastern and can be seen on SNF and NBCSWA.
Numbers via naturalstattrick.com
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