The Lightning have only played five games, but it is already plainly obvious what their problems are. The most identifiable issue is that, when their rush is eliminated, they struggle to generate offense on the forecheck. During yesterday afternoon’s 4-2 loss, the Senators did a nice job stepping up in the neutral zone, forcing the Bolts to dump and chase. Even when the Lightning did retrieve the puck, Ottawa succeeded at keeping the puck-carriers to the perimeter. Tampa Bay’s other issues include their play outside the offensive zone, and their forwards’ failure to support the Lightning defensemen. And Mikhail Sergachev.

While the neutral zone was an area of gridlock for the Lightning, Ottawa faced far less resistance in that zone and on entries. The Lightning defensemen routinely retreat and concede entries. The reason they surrender loose gaps is because the back pressure is non-existent. On the game-winner by Vladislav Namestikov, Braydon Coburn tried to snatch the lobbed puck in the neutral zone—and botched the catch.



If Coburn had backpedaled instead of attempting to intercept the aerial pass, the Senators would have had only a two-on-two for Connor Brown and Namestikov against Coburn and Cernak instead of an odd-man rush. The Senators' forwards had the opportunity to attack with speed because the Lightning defensemen were forsaken by their forwards, as Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn, and Mathieu Joseph were all caught deep in the offensive zone.

This mess-up should sound familiar because it also happened on the game’s first goal, by Colin White.



Tampa Bay made an inexcusable line change in the second period (hello Nikita Kucherov line), surrendering the middle of the ice to the Senators, and lo and behold, Ottawa was able to capitalize on a three-on-two. The Lightning forwards’ abdication of responsibility in terms of supporting their defensemen translates to a lose-lose for these defensemen. They can try to be more confrontational and step up in the neutral zone, hoping there is support underneath, but that could lead to instances like that in the first period with three minutes remaining, where Coburn stepped up on Connor Brown and tried to disrupt the transition.

This aggression from the Bolts’ defenseman was problematic because Coburn didn’t have his forwards supporting him, so when Thomas Chabot scooped up the loose puck after Coburn and Brown collided, he was able to find Namestikov breaking through the middle and the Senators created a two-on-one. The Lightning defensemen have their issues, especially on breakouts—I counted 11 turnovers on the breakout by the Lightning in just the first period alone—but their forwards are doing them no favors.

Finally, Sergachev is a liability. One might see that he has six assists, which is tied for the team lead in points, and be fooled into thinking he has had a strong start to the season. He hasn’t. Remember how in 2018-19 Sergachev tilted the ice and had great possession metrics despite playing sheltered minutes? Not the case this season. His Corsi for percentage is 40.52 at 5v5, which is atrocious. He has a Scoring Chances Plus/Minus of -11.

His problems are numerous. Sergachev turns the puck over far too often. He is not just bad, but horrendous at boxing out. Jean-Gabriel Pageau was the latest player to prey on Sergachev’s weakness in this area, scoring the Senators’ second goal because Sergachev couldn’t take away his stick along the goal line.



Mind you, the Senators only had possession in the Lightning’s end because Sergachev had a giveaway in the neutral zone.

Sergachev’s turnover habits and defensive coverage issues are both very problematic, but then there are the discipline and accountability issues. Sergachev ran into Craig Anderson, nullifying Kucherov’s goal yesterday. Whether it is foolish penalties or careless positioning, his presence in the lineup is becoming a huge problem for the team. The hope was that he would take a step forward this season. He hasn’t. He actually may be worse. He cost the Lightning the game yesterday, but the stakes right now are low. If he continues to play like this, the question will be: Do the Lightning want to jeopardize their postseason chances by having a defenseman who can singlehandedly torpedo them?

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