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Here are five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Dallas Stars:
1. A pace down spot
The Stars played very slow last year and, unsurprisingly, that’s continued to be the case this season. I know it’s early but they are currently playing at the slowest Corsi pace (attempts for + against per 60) in the NHL. They don’t generate shots and they don’t allow many. Slow, low-event hockey is their style. At home, where they’ll be able to control matchups, they’ll surely be looking to drag Calgary down into the mud with them. I don’t anticipate many chances in this game – at least relatively speaking – so the Flames will have to be opportunistic when they do get them.
2. Active defense
Through four games, five players on the Stars have attempted at least nine shots at 5v5. Three of them – Miro Heiskanen, John Klingberg, and Jamie Oleksiak – are defensemen. They’re using the point a lot to try to generate offense. Flames forwards will need to ensure they’re getting back, wary of potential trailers, and taking away shooting lanes as well as they can.
3. Goaltending duel
The Stars don’t allow many goals. Playing strong defensive, low-event hockey helps. So does having Ben Bishop. Since the beginning of last season, 28 goaltenders have logged at least 2,000 minutes of ice at 5v5. None of the other 27 have posted a better save percentage than Bishop (.936).
Meanwhile, Big Save Dave ranks tied for 8th – ahead of names like Tuukka Rask, Carey Price, Braden Holtby, and Sergei Bobrovsky – with a .929 save percentage. He’s no slouch either.
This has the makings of a really low scoring game, which means it’ll be 4-3 entering the 3rd and I’ll look clueless.
Note: there is potential Cam Talbot gets the nod tonight, in which case the Stars will have a clear goaltending edge.
4. Rasmus’ return
Mr. Andersson practiced alongside Mark Giordano on the top pairing on Wednesday and the expectation is he’ll remain there tonight. This will be his first chance to play with Gio this season. They spent quite a bit of time together last year, especially down the stretch, and garnered exceptional results.
Across nearly 160 minutes, they helped the Flames control 56.78% of the shot attempts, 58.58% of the expected goals, and out-score opponents 17-6. They were dominant.
I have no doubt they’ll be able to pick up where they left off.
5. Protecting Michael Stone
He is supposed to be a plus-defender but he is not good at suppressing shots, chances, or goals. He can’t really skate, and he doesn’t handle the puck well. A lot of his shifts are spent of his shifts are spent chasing play in the defensive zone. Not to pile on, but Stone also hasn’t seen any regular season action yet so there could be a rust factor as well. It’ll be tough on the road, but Bill Peters needs to keep him away from Dallas’ top-6 as often as possible.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Andrew Mangiapane
Milan Lucic - Derek Ryan - Sam Bennett
Tobias Rieder - Mark Jankowski - Michael Frolik/Austin Czarnik
Mark Giordano - Rasmus Andersson
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
T.J. Brodie - Michael Stone
David Rittich
Dallas
Jamie Benn - Tyler Seguin - Alex Radulov
Mattias Janmark - Roope Hintz - Joe Pavelski
Andrew Cogliano - Radek Faksa - Joel L’Esperance
Nicholas Caamano - Rhett Gardner - Justin Dowling
Esa Lindell - John Klingberg
Andrej Sekera - Miro Heiskanen
Jamie Oleksiak - Taylor Fedun
Ben Bishop
Puck drop is just after 8:30 p.m. Eastern and can be seen on SN360 and FS-W.
Numbers via naturalstattrick.com
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