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An Early Look at the First Wildcard Team in the East in 2019-20: Montreal |
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On the 2019-20 Montreal Canadiens….
The story has to start here with the 2018-19 Montreal Canadiens and the return of Carey Price to elite status. And yet that wasn’t the real surprise story of last year, that was the offense...5 on 5 versus on the power play. Five on five the Canadiens were the 5th best scoring team in the NHL and I bet you would have gotten 99-1 odds on that happening…
The defense, despite missing Shea Weber for the early part of the season was way better than anyone thought and the Canadiens were in the race right up to the end…In fact, there were 17 teams in the east who finished with a positive goal differential...the 16 teams who made the playoffs AND the Montreal Canadiens.
The Canadiens managed to have a +13 Goal differential despite being 30th on the power play...an AWFUL 13.2% on the power play...and remember they scored more even strength goals than 26 other NHL teams.
Why Montreal did NOT make the playoffs…
It is rare that you can honestly point to one factor that caused a team’s success or failure. On the Canadiens you can point to 2.
#1. If the Canadiens are even middle of the road on the power play they are a playoff team.
#2. If the Habs get ANY backup goaltending in the 18 games Price doesn’t play, they would have landed at least 3 points.
Did they fix the problem?
The Power Play…
They attempted to work on the power play with the addition of Aho, but a full season of Shea Weber could easily help things along….Can Ryan Poehling help? Can Drouin find the back of the net more consistently? The reality is when you look at the NHL’s top scorers they generally score around 20-30% of their goals on the power play. The Habs had none of their forwards net 5 power play goals for the ENTIRE season. Shea Weber scored 5 in only 58 games.
Backup Goalie
The Habs brought in the perfect backup in my opinion. Keith Kincaid is a way more solid backup and also has shown the ability to play very well when depended on as a starter. He had a rough season for NJ in 18-19, but to be fair the Devils had a terrible year in front of him…
What to look forward to:
This starts with Suzuki and Poehling...and in the not too distant future Cole Caufield, who they absolutely stole in the draft. Caufield will be a star for the Habs in the near future.
Rumors surrounding the Habs…
The Canadiens have had one of their more active rumor summers I can remember...They are absolutely looking for a top line player. Duchene was close. Aho was their first attempt via offer sheet and now they are on to trying to acquire Patrik Laine via trade...They are also in on Gardiner to bolster the defense….But I wouldn’t call them a favorite… They are very active and look to Montreal to grab some bargain from a team that may have to dump to sign an RFA.
Outlook…
Montreal caught a lot of teams by surprise last year and a lot of that had to do with speed and coaching….This is a dangerous team that is a lot of fun to watch again. They should be better, but so will many other teams in a Eastern Conference that clearly is the conference on the rise...Carolina, the Islanders and the Jackets are all catchable for a playoff spot...in theory, but they aren’t the only current non-playoff team with a serious shot. Florida, Philly, NY Rangers, NJ and Buffalo and are going to be in the hunt late in the year. Montreal always has a leg up with the great #31 in net…
Best Case/worst case...
The best case they finish 3rd in the division...worst case they finish 13th in the conference…That’s a big swing.
My early pick:
(With a month to go until my official pick this could change.)
My early pick is Montreal will finish in the first wildcard spot.
Best All-Time Habs Team?
I will be adding this later, because coming up in mid-September we will be starting the ALL-TIME Tournament to end all Hockey Tournaments.
Picking the All-Time Habs team is perhaps the most difficult team in the NHL...the toughest call among all the tough calls is "Who are the top two goalies All-Time for the Habs?" That will be added later, but I would like to hear your picks.
Where do you feel the 2019-20 Habs will finish and why?
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