The signing of Jacob Trouba pushed the Rangers into cap difficulty. I am not calling it hell because steps still exist to remediate the situation. But the additions of Trouba and Artemi Panarin have added $19.6 million to the team's cap spending, creating the current situation.
Rangers current cap situation:
New York has a handful of options to clear up sufficient cap space:
1) Buyout Brendan Smith
2) Buyout Kevin Shattenkirk
3) Buyout Marc Staal
4) Trade Vladislav Namestnikov
5) Trade Chris Kreider
6) Trade Pavel Buchnevich or one of the other RFAs to clear up space
Each of them have their pros and cons, some more than others. A buyout clears cap space this season but pushes the cap hit down the road. New York needs to create about $5 mil or so of room to sign Buchnevich, Brendan Lemieux and Tony DeAngelo figuring on salaries of about $2.8 million, $1 million and somewhere between $1-2 million, the latter two subject to receiving the qualifying offer since they are not arb eligible, though each contract will depend on whether the deals are one or two year deals. If the latter, expect slightly higher salaries, especially for Lemieux and ADA.
On
Smith, Shattenkirk and Staal: I ran this before, but again, here’s what it could cost to buyout one of the veteran defensemen and how much cap space it would save each year, according to CapFriendly’s buyout calculator:
Shattenkirk
2019-20 — Cap hit: $1,483,833; Savings: $5,166,667
2020-21 — Cap hit: $6,083,333; Savings: $566,667
2021-22 — Cap hit: $1,433,333; Savings: -$1,433,333
2022-23 — Cap hit: $1,433,333; Savings: -$1,433,333
Staal
2019-20 — Cap hit: $2.9 million; Savings: $2.8 million
2020-21 — Cap hit: $3.7 million; Savings: $2 million
2021-22 — Cap hit: $1.2 million; Savings: -$1.2 million
2022-23 — Cap hit $1.2 million; Savings: -$1.2 million
Smith
2019-20 — Cap hit: $970,833; Savings: $3,379,167
2020-21 — Cap hit: $3,145,833; Savings: $1,204,167
2021-22 — Cap hit: $1,145,833; Savings: -$1,145,833
2022-23 — Cap hit: $1,145,833; Savings: -$1,145,833
The major downside with buying out Shattenkirk or Smith is that the 2020/21 cap hit would be large. The cap charge in that season would be $6,083,333 on Shattenkirk, and $3,145,833 on Smith. As noted previously, those amounts would be a major portion of their four-year respective totals of $10,433,332, and $6,408,332. Staal would provide a 50% savings on his 2019-20 cap hit this year, with a larger cap hit next season and trailing off, like 'Kirk and Smith the last two years of his deal. The likely candidate for a buyout is Smith, due to the savings and the net cap hit down the road. Shattenkirk helps the most this year but next season's hit is huge. Staal is a midway point and buying him out make the team more dependent on the next room to clean up enough space.
Trading
Namestnikov is clearly the most palatable of the options. Dealing him removes a possible second- or third-line player but one who likely doesn't factor into the team's future plans. Therefore, seeing him go, either now or at the deadline or after the season, is the likely occurrence. But other teams know that the Rangers are in this cap situation and may very well be low-balling him. GM Jeff Gorton can wait a bit to make a deal, as teams are allowed to be 10% over the cap during the summer. But if New York ends up in that position, as the season approaches, the Rangers could get even less on the dollar as clubs try and exploit the Blueshirts to extract the best deal possible for the smallest return.
As Tom Urtz pointed out in his
blog today, which is a must read, "it is important to note that the Rangers can no longer buyout Ryan Strome for 1⁄3 of the remainder of his contract, because the minimum salary for a buyout during the secondary window is $3,455,438. Had they bought him out during the first window, the team would have saved $2,666,667." Strome is penciled in as the 2c and we have discussed ad nauseum, ad infinitum who might fill that role and if Strome is a possible key member for the future. Clearly Gorton and John Davidson believe that holding onto Strome was the wiser course rather than moving him, though the possibility still exists that he is dealt.
Kreider is the one that seems to draw the most ire. Adam Herman
wrote that dealing Kreider was a necessity. His arguments included that paying an almost 30-year old $6-7 million a season for five-six seasons is a improper use of funds. His main crux was that "paying Kreider more than $6 million per season to quite possibly be the fourth- or fifth-best winger on the team at that point would seem like malpractice in a salary cap league that leaves little room for error or luxury." Hard to argue with that point, though I believe many of us feel that Kreider still has another level or two to reach and could so over the next few seasons. Though as we know father time is undefeated.
NBC Sports
had the same view today on Kreider. Adam Gretz's arguments were similar to that of Adam Herman. The key sentences may be "Right now Kreider still has a lot of value to the Rangers for this season. He is probably making less than his market value, is still one of their best players, and still makes them better right now.
But when you look at the situation beyond this season his greatest value to them probably comes in the form of a trade chip because it not only means they can acquire an asset (or two) whose career better aligns with their next best chance to compete for a championship, but it also means they do not have to pay a soon-to-be declining, non-elite player a long-term contract into their 30s, a situation that almost never works out favorably for the team."
Dealing Kreider might free up close to $4 million in cap room, depending on what rooms offsetting his $4.625 million. But trading him also means that additional reliance and burden are placed on Kappo Kakko and Vitali Kravtsov immediately. Let alone Panarin and Buchnevich. Maybe Kreider will be the fifth or sixth best forward, but we don't know that right now. If moving him, I prefer waiting until the deadline when more is known about the kiddie corps, but Gorton may elect to go a different route.
One other idea proposed today on twitter was:
A few teams, including Ottawa, have cap room. Are you willing to deal Buch or ADA (I think of the RFAs, Lemieux is the least likely to be dealt) in such a manner to create room? That would remove an asset from the team, one that likely has a role at least this year if not beyond, but would help free up room.
To me, the clearest solution involves buying out Smith and deal Namestnikov, either to a team not contending this year with cap space or one in contention looking for at a minimum a third line center, with as little cap hit coming back and retained. To trade Nam, an asset, likely a pick must be attached. Of course, this is not a new concept and one Gorton is more certainly attempting to execute.
In which direction would you go to free up sufficient cap room?
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