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Chayka's Bets Will Make or Break Team

July 19, 2019, 10:12 AM ET [65 Comments]
James Tanner
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The Arizona Coyotes could have a big year.

Or they could be the worst team in hockey - it's hard to say.

Looking at their roster, the problem is apparent: They don't have enough elite talent to compete in a league where a team like the Leafs are rocking ten + first line players (Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Andreas Johnsson, Muzzin, Rielly, Barrie, Andersen and who knows about Dermott, Kapanen and maybe Gardiner).

The Coyotes have assembled a very average - weirdly capped out - lineup that could be anywhere from terrible to great.

But the only way they are great is if John Chayka actually turns out to be really good at his job.

Now, full disclosure: I am a fan.

What I like about Chayka is that he clearly understands that managing the Coyotes is different from managing a team like Toronto.

In Toronto, you can pick your spots and take big risks when it is warrented only. You can buy your way out of mistakes, and you allocate resources in a hundred different ways that will make your team better.

To compete on this field, the Coyotes (who probably have 10% of the resources) have to make big bets and hope they pay off.

Kessel is 32 - does he have another 90 points in him? We can get him at a discount, so let's swing for the fences.

And that is just one example.

Chayka is better with some help that OEL can live up to that massive contract.

But where he is really placing his bets is on his evaluations of RFA players.

Chayka gave traditionally bad contracts to Christian Dvorak, Nick Schmaltz, Lawson Crouse and Jakob Chychrun.

By any standard, not one of those guy is worth close to the amount Chayka payed them.

So what was he doing?



Betting on his own guys. As should be obvious to anyone who has followed the salary cap era closely, the biggest mistake NHL teams is overpaying players past their primes for things they did earlier in their career.

Tyler Myeres, Brock Nelson, etc. You could name a 100 examples from the last three years alone.

Instead of doing that, Chayka has decided to overpay his RFAs in the hope that eventually they are worth way more down the road, but are locked in.

It's a pretty obvious strategy that more teams should use, but maybe not the extent Chayka has.

We can rule out him being an idiot, so why is he doing this?

Simple. He understands that his lack of resources mean he has to find other ways to get competitive.

Crouse shouldn't be getting more than the league minimum, but if he somehow breaks out, the Coyotes will have a bargain - and consider his cap hit is a buck-five, this isn't too much of a longshot.

The real money comes in if Chychrun is a legit top pairing player. At 4.5 million he could be end up with a Morgan Rielly type of value (Rielly deserved a Norris and has a 5 million cap hit).

The Chychrun one is the easy money, and it only was an option because the kid had knee injuries in back to back years, so of course he wants long-term security.

The other two? I like the strategy, but they're longshots.

Who knows what Schmaltz or Dvorak will be at this point? If they become first line players, Chayka will have a very long, very successful career and the Coyotes might compete.

If they don't drastically improve, however, that's ten million bucks flushed down the toilet.

Add in the Clayton Keller and Barret Hayton picks (both picks made fun of by draft experts) and the Coyotes have basically a quarter of their roster and their entire future defined by bets the GM made.

Four overpays in an attempt to score mad value, and two draft picks taken too early in order to try and land that high-ceiling superstar that has eluded the team.

In the NHL, most teams would play it conservatively and continue to suck. God knows Don Maloney's idea of a risk was drafting someone whose dad never played in the NHL.

At least Chayka understands the obstacles his team faces, and has acted accordingly to try and level the playing field.

Maybe it won't work out, but you gotta love the guy for trying.
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