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We're two weeks into NHL free agency and all the players capable of making a sizeable impact have been scooped up. All but one.
The lone exception is Jake Gardiner, who happens to play the New Jersey Devils' biggest position of need (left defense).
Heading into July there was talk Gardiner could command as much as $6-7 million annually on a seven-year deal. This long waiting period suggests the market for the 29-year-old isn't as hot as expected.
If that's the case, and he could be had for more reasonable terms (years are more important than dollars), I think the Devils should be interested.
Gardiner is a smooth-skating, puck-moving defenseman who has averaged 45 points per 82 games over the last three seasons. Perhaps more importantly – the Devils have several defenders who can create – Gardiner is also a plus defender who effectively suppresses shots and can hold his own in difficult minutes.
Will he make the occasional head-scratching mistake that a) proves costly and; b) leaves you yelling at the TV? Yes, and I'm not going to argue otherwise.
Even accounting for that, the good clearly outweighs the bad. There's no debate to be had.
From 2016-19, Gardiner posted a 50.88 Corsi For%, 51.37 Expected Goals For%, and 58.53 Goals For% at 5v5. Each total was better than what the Maple Leafs achieved without Gardiner on the ice.
I think he'd better compliment P.K. Subban on the top pairing than any other left-defender the Devils have.
At this point, Andy Greene is punching above his weight class vs top comp. Sami Vatanen is OK at both ends but not great at either. Will Butcher shouldn't be on a matchup pairing. Ty Smith is not ready for that role (he also primarily played RD in Spokane last year), and Mirco Mueller never will be.
Gardiner's presence would allow the Devils to ice the following:
Gardiner - Subban – vs top tier
Greene - Severson – vs middle tier
Butcher - Smith – sheltered offensive role vs depth
Extras: Mueller, Carrick
Under these circumstances, I believe Sami Vatanen can and will be traded to a team that needs help on defense (like Winnipeg, for example). They're not going to pay a premium to keep Vatanen around long-term – at least they shouldn't – so it makes sense to deal him for assets the team could use down the road.
I don't know how likely this scenario is to transpire, but I'm comfortable saying the Devils would be better positioned for success in 2019-20 if it does.
numbers via naturalstattrick.com
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