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Arizona Coyotes Still not a Playoff Team - Stuck in Neutral

July 10, 2019, 1:18 PM ET [43 Comments]
James Tanner
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The perception of the Arizona Coyotes going into next season is going to be very different from the reality.

The Coyotes had a great year last season, considering their injuries, and came the closest they've come to a playoff spot in years.

This year, they can sell the idea that if they are healthy, they should be a force. They can sell Phil Kessel, new ownership and the fact that they're basically a cap team now.

On the surface, it all looks great.

But the reality is way different.



First, the Coyotes almost making the playoffs last year is largely irrelevant. The NHL has such a high degree of parity that a contending team that gets unlucky for a couple months can miss the playoffs.

Additionally, other than a couple teams at the top and bottom of the league, almost anyone can luck into a playoff spot - there is very little separation in the middle of the pack.

Finally, goalies have an incredible impact on the game, and whoever's goalie goes on a surprise run will rocket to the top of the standings. Darcy Kuemper had arguably a top 50 all-time season last year (statistically), but how likely is he to repeat such insane numbers?

Since goalies are the most unpredictable part of the sport, it's not generally good if they are the main selling feature on why your team is good, which is definitely the Coyotes' situation.

Scorers are much more predictable, and that's bad news for the Coyotes who are counting on Kessel and the famous Internal Improvement to score enough to make the playoffs.

The Coyotes do have a very strong top-to-bottom roster. The problem is that games are won by the top six or seven players on a roster, and the Coyotes (while they may have some of the best overall depth in the NHL) are worse when comparing their six or seven best players to other team's six or seven best players.

As the team is currently constructed, they will require a lot of luck to make the playoffs.

If they enter the season with their current roster, they aren't a playoff team. The caveat is that if Kuemper is for real and they have a high shooting percentage season, they could be one of the best teams in the league.

But hat is HIGHLY unlikely. Every single team in the NHL can say the exact same thing.

Tip of the hat to the New York Islanders.

Realistically, they've boxed themselves in. They aren't good enough to have be a contender, and they aren't bad enough to get a top pick. Their roster is predominantly made up of over 25s and they have only good, not great, prospects.

They can roll the dice and hope for the best, or they can sacrifice the immediate future to try and contend now.

If they are serious about trying to win, they've got to make at least one more big move.
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