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10 months ago, the Senators made the biggest trade in franchise history as they sent future hall-of-famer Erik Karlsson to the San Jose Sharks in a mega-deal. The deal was seen as a steal for Doug Wilson and the Sharks as they did not have to give up any key pieces to their roster, plus they were able to get one of the best defensemen in the game. After one season, I wanted to take a look back at the trade and re-evaluate from Ottawa’s perspective.
For a refresher, here is what the trade ended up being after Karlsson re-signed:
Erik Karlsson and Francis Perron
FOR
Chris Tierney, Dylan DeMelo, Rudolfs Balcers, Josh Norris, 2020 1st round pick, 2019 2nd round pick, 2021 2nd round pick
Even though not all of those pieces have the highest upside, getting seven players/picks in return for Karlsson (plus Perron) is a lot. Before Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier, and Kevin Labanc had their fantastic seasons in San Jose, I was really hoping that one of them was going to be in the return, and after seeing them all become solid top-six forwards this season, it hurts even more that none of them are Senators. So it would have been nice to get somebody on the roster with higher upside, although Wilson was probably never willing to give up someone of such importance to their NHL roster.
Let’s go through all of the assets acquired though and see what has changed since September.
Chris Tierney. Trending: Neutral
Lots of people might say that Tierney is trending up because he posted a career-high 48 points in Ottawa, but he only had nine goals, and his defensive results were (and have always been) quite bad:
He benefited from playing with Mark Stone, and I see him as a 35-40 point centre who is not valuable in the defensive zone. He can be a fine 3rd line centre, but I would not be comfortable with him any higher in the lineup if Ottawa actually wants to win. He’s still young at 25, so perhaps he can be moved to another team at some point, in which case, the Karlsson trade might have another layer to it.
Dylan DeMelo. Trending: Up
I really like DeMelo on the Senators. He was an underappreciated player with the Sharks, and he is a cheap defensive defenseman who can easily play in Ottawa’s top-four. And that doesn’t just mean he is a top-four defenseman because there aren’t any good players on the team---he played like a very capable defenseman this past season. In fact, he played better than a third pairing player in San Jose even though he was never moved up in the lineup.
He is making only $900k in 2019-20, and although he is a UFA next summer, he shouldn’t be very expensive considering his career high in points is 22. As solid as he is defensively, he doesn’t have the reputation of a guy who is going to get paid in free agency, so I’m not worried about him costing too much for Ottawa. It irks me that he was actually a free agent in 2018 and could have been signed by the Senators before the Karlsson trade, but I’m glad that they at least picked him to be on their defense as opposed to someone like Justin Braun.
I hope that DeMelo has a future with this team after 2019-20, because the 26-year-old can fit in perfectly on the second or third pairing moving forward.
Rudolfs Balcers. Trending: Neutral
Balcers had a similar season in the AHL as he did in 2017-18, as he posted 0.72 points per game in both seasons (31 points in 43 games in Belleville and 48 in 67 in San Jose). He also played his first NHL games with 14 points in 36 games, which is fine, but he will need to take a step forward as a 22-year-old to begin next season. There’s no guarantee that he begins the year in Ottawa, but he should spend most of the season in the NHL.
I don’t think his ceiling is too high, although I do see him as an NHL player who can play on a 3rd line comfortably at the least. If he becomes anything more than that, that’s gravy.
Josh Norris. Trending: Up
Norris is also not a prospect expected to be a star, but he could settle in as a solid 2nd line centre. He was ranked 35th overall by Corey Pronman in his mid-season prospect rankings, which is actually very good. He’s expected to be well-rounded who can be a useful piece in the lineup, and his 6 points in 7 WJC games (while being an assistant captain) gave people a taste of what he can do. He posted 19 points in 17 games before getting hurt for the University of Michigan, which ranked sixth on the team in points and first in points per game.
He should begin next season in Belleville, and that will be the first real test for him after being drafted in 2017. There could still be some untapped potential, but for now, he is expected to be a capable centre but not a game-changer. I like Norris, even if his ceiling isn’t as high as one might hope.
2020 1st rounder
The Sharks are still going to be a good playoff team in 2020 despite what some people think about their “window closing.” In all likelihood, this pick will be in the 20-31 range, so it will probably not be a high-end talent that falls to them in that spot. However, a late first round pick is still a great asset, and we won’t know for a while whether or not this future prospect will contribute to Dorion looking better in this trade.
2019 2nd rounder
The Senators used this pick to move up to draft Mads Søgaard, so he can sort of be a part of this trade. Søgaard is a great goaltending prospect who had a fantastic season in the WHL, and he could make this trade look much better if he turns into an NHL starter. He’s years away from making an impact, so it will be hard to judge just yet.
2021 2nd rounder
Ottawa gained another asset in June when Karlsson re-signed in San Jose, as that pick was a conditional one. Who the player ends up being and what he turns into won’t be known for a long time, but a 2nd round pick is quite valuable. Ottawa was never bringing Karlsson back anyway, so an extra 2nd rounder is a nice bonus.
Erik Karlsson. Trending: slightly down
Karlsson was still able to get the money he desired, as he signed an 8-year extension in San Jose with a cap hit of $11.5M. That would not have been surprising at all just a year ago, but it was somewhat surprising to see him get that contract considering he had another injury-riddled season. He played just 53 games in the regular season and sometimes looked hurt while he was playing, so the questions about his long-term health were rampant from the media.
Nobody really knows how healthy he is right now and how healthy he will be moving forward, but he probably isn’t going to be as good as he was at his peak in Ottawa. Having said that, his “decline” has been dramatized, as he is still a #1 defenseman and Karlsson at 80% is going to be so much better than most. It’s just that he might look more human than he did a few years ago. He probably won’t be worth $11.5M for the entirety of that contract, but he is going to be very good for years to come.
With three major injuries in his career now, there’s always the possibility that he loses his ability quicker than expected. I don’t think it will happen (and hope it does not), but there’s at least some worry from people that he isn’t the same. If he was a free agent in 2020 and Ottawa was trading him this summer instead, I don’t think they would be getting as good of a return due to injury scares, so at least there is that from Ottawa’s perspective.
Francis Perron is also a part of this trade, but even after posting 47 points in 63 games in the AHL, I don’t think he is going to turn into much at the age of 23. Furthermore, he was traded along with a 7th round pick to Vancouver just a few weeks ago for Tom Pyatt and a 6th round pick.
A lot of this trade still depends on how the three draft picks from San Jose turn out. One of them turned into Mads Søgaard, but we still don’t know who the other two picks will be just yet. Ottawa has been able to scout well over the past decade so there’s a decent chance that at least one of them will be an NHL player, but it’s so hard to tell right now. Hell, even Balcers and Norris are unknowns. In the end, we won’t get a true verdict on this trade until six or seven years from now.
One thing remains true though: the trade looks a bit better than it did in September.
I like the chances that both Balcers and Norris will become full-time NHLers, and in that case, Ottawa will have four (and up to seven) players on their team in return. Four smaller pieces don't equal one Erik Karlsson, but it is better than it could be.
Should the Senators have moved on from Karlsson? No, I still think he is going to be very good for years to come. Could they have gotten a better return with players that have more upside? I think so. However, the return for the Senators does look better than it initially did, and they should be at least getting some useful pieces that can be a part of the next generation. Ottawa has enough from that trade that it shouldn’t look too bad looking back on it years from now, and I’m just glad they have some NHL pieces in return.
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