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BriseBois's Risky Strategy with Point

July 2, 2019, 9:06 AM ET [32 Comments]
Sam Hitchcock
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
We live in strange times. The Lightning-Brayden Point staring contest is mesmerizing mostly for its inexplicability. It is shocking that the Lightning management had the audacity to ask Point to sign a bridge deal after he scored a combined 73 goals in his last two seasons (as reported by Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic). It is bizarre that they had a meeting with Joe Pavelski, a nearly 35-year-old center who the San Jose Sharks willingly parted with despite trying to win the Cup right now. While the Lightning are busy inking Curtis McElhinney and Luke Schenn, slowly eroding their cap space, other teams like the Canadiens mulled over an offer sheet for Point.

When J.T. Miller was traded ten days ago, it seemed like an Aha! Moment. The Lightning had wisely shed a dispensable player and seemingly were willing to pay what it takes to compensate Point. Point’s extension would recalibrate the team’s timeline to contend. The age of the core players secured long-term would skew younger. Now, Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman would be the veterans aiding a nucleus comprised of stars 26 or younger: Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. With Stamkos and Hedman poised to offer four-to-five more good seasons, there was reason to believe that the old and new guard could work in tandem to give the Lightning several more cracks at the Cup before Stamkos and Hedman outlived their reputations.

But if the Lightning let Point slip away because of an enterprising team tendering an offer sheet, it will shatter that ambitious, but feasible, vision. So, what accounts for Tampa Bay’s hesitancy in giving Point an extension? I have theories.

Lightning GM Julien BriseBois is trying to set a new precedent. Every player in the top nine seemed to get a juicy raise and extension under former GM Steve Yzerman. Perhaps BriseBois is trying to establish that the ground rules have changed, and he will drive a harder bargain. He got Jan Rutta and Braydon Coburn to accept less AAV than in their previous contracts. How he comports himself in these negotiations sets the tenor for the pack of RFAs next year. He wants the saga with Point to bespeak that he is tough, but equitable.

I think that makes sense in theory, but not all hockey players should be treated equally. BriseBois’s tactics could detonate the Lightning’s ability to win the Cup next year, thus squandering a year of Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, and Vasilevskiy in his prime.

This is why reports of the Lightning trying to curtail Point’s second contract to a “prove it” deal are so galling. The Lightning have consistently made the mistake of paying players based on past production instead of on their expected future output. Thus, veterans have been offered at least five years. At 23 years of age, Point gives them a chance for maximum production through the life of a long contract. If he scores 40 goals on the back end of a six-year contract, that would likely be a bargain given the rising salary cap. However, if the issue is not term, but cap hit, BriseBois’s posture makes more sense because of the ripple effect with the other stars. Stamkos is at $8.5M AAV and Kucherov is at $9.5M. Where Point fits in that salary schema matters.

Desperate teams sometimes seek riskier strategies, but reading BriseBois’s quotes, maybe confident teams pursue risky strategies too. When asked about the possibility of Point receiving an offer sheet, BriseBois’s placidness was unsettling: “You never know. I think I’ll be surprised if there’s one in the League, but I know it’s a possibility. I can’t neglect the possibility or the risk of there being one. There’s a reason there haven’t been many, because most of the time it doesn’t work to make an offer sheet.”

LeBrun reported that the Canadiens nearly presented an offer sheet for Point, but decided on Sebastian Aho instead due to the franchise’s likelihood to match. One day has elapsed, and one dodged bullet. The Lightning are a top-heavy team, and they led the league with 319 goals because the Point, Stamkos, and Kucherov troika combined for 40 percent of their goals. Point’s unlikely emergence as a dynamic, two-way center who could post prolific scoring numbers sparked hopes of a succession plan for Stamkos. It was another masterstroke by the scouting department and Yzerman, who discovered Point. Point would lengthen the Bolts’ timeline to contend for many years to come.

Point is an emblematic forward for the modern NHL. His first dominant attribute is his ability to carry the puck long distances and with haste. He is so fast that he can create separation against some of the NHL’s best skating defensemen while carrying the puck. He also has excellent footwork and balance, which allow him to discard defenders with quick stops and changes of direction. In his own end, he will sink below the goal line to support his defenseman. He has the poise and puck-handling to act as a one-man breakout. Point’s puck-handling and acceleration enable him to enter the offensive zone and exit his own zone with relative ease.

While Point’s shot has not yet been mentioned—it is not powerful or piercing—it is effective because he has a quick release. Point utilized that on the power play last season, registering 20 goals with the man advantage. Point thrived in the bumper spot. But his reliance on the power play for goals was a new development. In 2017-18, Point scored only five of his 32 goals with the man advantage because he was buried on the second unit. On and off the power play, he is very good at finding quiet areas around the slot and whacking the puck into a corner as soon as the puck arrives on his blade.

If the Lightning let Point slip away, they will try to make up for that production by committee. Maybe Anthony Cirelli is ready to step into that No. 2 center spot and play on the No. 1 power play unit and score thirty goals. It is conceivable that Mathieu Joseph, given a larger role, could pot 20 goals this season. There are rookies who could contribute an offensive injection. But this also assumes that the stars continue at status quo. What if Kucherov gets injured or Stamkos’s production shrinks? The Lightning would be putting more stress on their stars to perform and asking a lot from players on entry-level deals and the wizened forwards from the 2015 Cup team.

Point is the rare case of a player whose best years lie ahead. Nevertheless, there are problems with his game. He is a below-average forechecker. He gets pushed around too much in the crease. He needs to attack and shoot more. For as much as he loves to pass, he will choose the wrong target or fail to find the passing lane. Point’s problem is paradoxical. His predilection is to distribute, but his best skill is using his skating to set up his shot.

Even with this identity crisis, Point scored 92 points last season. He has the talent to remedy his shortcomings, which would make him nearly unstoppable. And if he doesn’t, he would still be a highly influential center.

Something which makes the NHL such a rich sport to follow is its celebration of imperfection. The Blues were a deeply flawed team that discovered a good goaltender, a coach who could instill discipline, and a better work ethic, and they rode a moderately talented roster to the Cup. The margin between mediocre and great, between failing and succeeding, is sometimes smaller than we think.

NHL players evolve. The sophisticated ones can turn weaknesses into strengths. They can adapt and reach new heights. So far, Point has done his best during the regular season, but as his game matures, so will his postseason output. It will be an opportunity forsaken if the Lightning allow him to be stolen.
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