Today is the NHL entry draft. It is an event that I believe officially kicks off the NHL offseason. As teams get set to draft their next wave of players there are some rules to drafting that I came across a few months ago during the NFL draft. They are rules for football drafting, but I think they were good and most of them can be altered to be pertinent to hockey. Here are those seven rules
Don’t fool yourself into thinking you are better at drafting than the other teams. You probably are not
Unless you have a robust team of trackers acquiring possession stats, expected goals, and passing data you aren’t ahead of the game. Most teams are still using box score stats and the eye test. That puts everyone in a pretty crowded space with very little separation in ability to evaluate. Don’t go full Jon Gruden and think you’re the smartest person in the room. You aren’t
Don’t draft a RB early. If you draft one late, make sure they significantly impact the passing game
So as I said above these are football rules. However, if you change running back to goaltenders it is still a good rule of thumb to live by. Unless you think the goaltender is going to be a generational talent it is wise to hang back and select a goalie in the later rounds. We have so many examples of goaltenders drafted late who have great careers. You don’t need to use up your better picks to find one. The last time a team won the Stanley Cup using a starting goaltender drafted in the first round was Marc-Andre Fleury in 2009.
If the first line in a scouting report for a LB/DT is about how good he is against the run, don’t take him
If all you hear about is a player’s defensive ability it is a red flag to me. I want to know about what a player can do to create. Think about the Connor Hall’s of the world when defense is all you hear about. I want players who set the tone of the action. Not the ones who need to react to the ones doing it. “Defensive defenseman” is the code for a bad NHL player. What are the chances for success when you are branded that type of player in the lower levels? No thanks.
Don’t trade up unless you are taking a big swing at a franchise-changing QB
Trading up is a fool’s errand, especially in the NHL draft. There is a significant drop off in the probability a player will pan out by the time the middle of the first round hits.
By the time you are near pick 10 you’re already at a 60% chance that player plays in 200 games. Probability only drops 20% by the time the last selection in round one is made.
So if teams aren’t moving out of the few high probability spots then you are left trading up in that 60% range. If the ceiling for trading up is that low it probably makes sense to stay put. Remember rule one. Do you really have the inside track on the player you are moving up for?
Don’t overrate your coaching staff’s ability to dramatically change who a player was in college
This happens in every sport. Egos get in the way.
“I can change this player”
“I can get through to him”
The list goes on. When you draft a player you shouldn’t be looking to dramatically alter them. Play to their strengths as opposed to trying to eliminate all their weaknesses at the expense of their strengths. So many players get neutered by this egotistical approach and never flourish because teams focus more on what they can’t do than what they can. Don’t take the player if you don’t want to actually have them play to their strengths. It’s selfish and unsuccessful.
If drafting a WR, make sure he was productive in college
Change WR to ‘skater’ and it is 100% true. You don’t have to be a prospects guru to understand that if a player can’t create in a lower level they won’t be able to at a higher level. I want nothing to do with prospects that have a minimal ability to generate offense. Their offensive production may go down as they jump up into tougher leagues, but the ones that can create and produce in lower levels are usually the ones that can survive and be functional if their offense dries up. Players lacking offensive production in college or juniors should be down on the list of players a team is interested in.
Look to trade back. Identify GM’s who are trying to save their jobs and thinking short term
This ties in with the draft probabilities from above and the first point about not thinking you are better than everyone else. The general managers who are in panic mode will ignore these probabilities and think that they are making an impact move. To succeed in the NHL draft on a consistent basis you will need to have more chances. The odds are low where most teams are picking anyways. You might as well take advantage of desperate teams and move down ten or 20 slots while picking up extra draft picks. It is likelier to increase your chances of taking somebody who will eventually help you even though you moved down.
Thanks for reading!
Pittsburgh Penguins Blogger • 
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