Following a 2025-26 season to forget for the Toronto Maple Leafs, there's little argument that the team needs to enjoy a productive offseason. Yes, they won the draft lottery, and will be adding a true impact player for nothing come this year's NHL Entry Draft, but the changes to this group must extend beyond just adding around the fringe.
The Leafs have serious money to spend this summer
With nearly $26M to spend this summer, John Chayka has the opportunity to make some impactful moves. That cap space could grow significantly if the team opts to part with Morgan Rielly and his $7.5M AAV, as rumours suggest that they might.
Alex Tuch is a name that could be attractive to the Maple Leafs in a few weeks, should he decide to test free agency. Beyond that, there are names like John Carlson, Rasmus Andersson and Anders Lee who could also draw some interest from Chayka and company. However, free agency is not the only way for the Maple Leafs to improve. The trade market is also an option.
Barring a shocking change of plan, the Maple Leafs will not be trading away the 1st overall pick in this year's draft. However, that doesn't mean that they don't have some premium assets to work with should they wish to pursue a blockbuster trade this summer. Enter Matthew Knies.
Matthew Knies nearly traded at the deadline
This week, both David Pagnotta and Elliotte Friedman had confirmed that the Maple Leafs nearly traded Knies to the Montreal Canadiens at the deadline for a prospect, two first round picks and additional assets.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Details about the rumored trade between the <a href="https://x.com/hashtag/Leafs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Leafs</a> and <a href="https://x.com/hashtag/Habs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Habs</a> for Matthew Knies have emerged.<br><br>Here is exactly why Knies is not a member of the Canadiens, and that the Maple Leafs likely won't go back to this offer, per <a href="https://x.com/FriedgeHNIC?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FriedgeHNIC</a> <br><br>For <a href="https://x.com/TheHockeyNews?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TheHockeyNews</a> ⬇️<a href="https://t.co/vRhdPxuOWN">https://t.co/vRhdPxuOWN</a></p>— Andre Leal (@leal_andre19) <a href="https://x.com/leal_andre19/status/2062903651832643912?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 5, 2026</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.x.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Of course, the Knies deal was a scheme cooked up by the previous management regime, and there's no guarantee that the organization still wishes to part with the Arizona native. However, in light of this week's shocking news coming out of Detroit, there is one target whom it may make a lot of sense to move Knies for.
Make no mistake about it, Dylan Larkin is a player who can sway the outcome of a game. With the Red Wings captain formally requesting a trade this week, the Leafs have the opportunity to secure a tangible upgrade.
Is there a deal to be made between the Leafs and Red Wings?
I know I'm going to take some flak for this, but if the Red Wings are willing to listen on a 1-for-1 deal involving Knies for Larkin, I'd take that deal and run if I'm John Chayka.
It's not that Knies is a bad player or a problem. It's not that he doesn't have the ability to influence the outcome of a game in his own right. It's about what a move like this would allow the Maple Leafs to do. Bringing in Dylan Larkin would allow the Buds to finally shift John Tavares to the wing and simultaneously bolster their roster down the middle.
We know that legit centers are hot commodities in the NHL, and as such, they're very tough for teams to get their hands on if they're not drafted and developed, or overpaid during free agency. Larkin is not only a quality center, but also happens to be an NHL captain. Beyond just the raw numbers he can produce, he can also add some important intangibles, including leadership.
Is Larkin an upgrade over Knies?
Larkin's 67 points in 74 games last season may not jump off the page, and Knies' 66 points in 79 games may not tell the whole story, but Knies' -30 rating is a stark contrast to Larkin's +3 rating in 2025-26. Granted, +/- is not the end-all-be-all of stats and should be taken with a grain of salt, but that sort of gap is not a negligible one, which is a strong sign that Larkin's two-way play was superior. Larkin is also a 30+ goal scorer in the last 5 seasons running.
Larkin ($8.7M AAV through 2030-31) does come at a higher cost against the cap, but again, the Leafs have the room.
At this point, there have been no indications that Larkin would even be willing to go to Toronto, but one has to wonder if joining countryman Auston Matthews would actually appeal to him.
From the Red Wings' perspective, adding a young, up-and-coming star like Knies could be the PR spin they need after their captain requested a trade out of town. He possesses some pretty important tools and does bring some star-level talent to the table in his own right. He's a young, fierce, very marketable player. The question is, would they entertain a 1-for-1 deal, or would they want a little something extra for the Leafs? And if so, would the Leafs still entertain such a deal?
These next few weeks leading up to the draft should be interesting. I wonder if we'll see something happen between these two Atlantic Division rivals surrounding Knies and Larkin.